Betting on the NFL is all about finding value – and that’s especially true with prop bets. Lines can change in a heartbeat as the money pours in, so when you find a good number – you pounce on it.
Here are some of the best Super Bowl Prop bets to target right now before the value evaporates.
Will there be a safety in the Super Bowl? Yes – (+1040)
Let’s talk Super Bowl safeties. In the history of the big game, there have been nine safeties, which works out to one in every 5.89 games.
What does that mean? It means that +1040 is wildly inflated. You’d only have to hit this bet one out of every ten times to make your money back. And as mentioned, safeties happen at a much more frequent rate than 10 to 1.
To make these odds even more appealing, we have two teams that love to gamble on fourth down – especially deep in the opponent’s territory.
If either team has a fourth down opportunity inside the other’s five-yard line, it’s almost certain that they’ll go for it, as they’ve proven all year long. If they miss, the other team will get the ball pinned deep in their own end.
Both of these QBs have been known to hold onto the ball. Jalen Hurts narrowly avoided being sacked in the endzone by Nick Bosa last week. He might not get so lucky this Sunday.
Both teams to make a 33-yard field goal – No (-115)
First of all, it’s unlikely that this will be a field goal-rich game. Both teams are offensive juggernauts and highly aggressive. So right away, the opportunities for kicks will probably be down.
Now factor in that Harrison Butker has kicked a 33+ field goal in seven of 15 games (47%), and Jake Elliott has done it in just six of 18 games (33%), and we have some real value. Based on those stats, there’s about a 64% chance that the “no” hits in this one. We’ll take the -115 odds on this prop bet all day long.
Chiefs first punt over 45.5 – Yes (-120)
Tommy Townsend’s punting prowess has been on display all season. The kicker with the long hair and even longer leg has booted his way to a boastful 50.4-yard average this year (2nd in the league).
Townsend has nailed this number 39 of 61 times on the season for a 64% hit rate. This game will also be played indoors at over 1,000 feet above sea level, which can only help with distance.
Team to call first timeout – Chiefs (-115)
You’re getting the same odds on both teams to call the first time out, which shouldn’t be the case.
Andy Reid is a wildfire when it comes to burning timeouts and has called the game’s first in 15 of 19 chances this year (79%). Conversely, Nick Sirianni is a master miser, taking the opening timeout in just seven of 19 games (37%).
It’s easy to think a bet like this is as random as a coin toss, but as you can see from the data – it’s clearly not.
Players to throw a pass in this game – Over 2.5 (+154)
There are a couple of reasons to love this bet. First and foremost, both quarterbacks are being held together with duct tape right now.
Patrick Mahomes has a high-ankle sprain and probably wouldn’t even be playing if it wasn’t the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts recently missed time with an injured shoulder and didn’t look close to 100% last game.
It’s not far-fetched to think that one of these QBs will have to exit the game for at least a play this Sunday.
Couple that with Andy Reid’s playbook full of trickery and the Eagles’ “Philly Special” history, and we like the over 2.5 in this one.