Josh Gordon is back for another season. After applying for reinstatement, the league conditionally granted his request and he’ll be back in action for Week One of the 2019 season. At his best, Gordon is one of the most talented and dangerous players in the league. However, he’s one of the least reliable fantasy players due to his unfortunate off-field substance abuse issues. Gordon is one of the biggest risk/reward options in the league, so where should you take him in your fantasy football drafts?
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2019 Fantasy Football Outlook: Josh Gordon
2018 Recap
What Josh Gordon did during his time in New England was nothing short of amazing. After starting the year in Cleveland, Gordon joined the Patriots via trade early in the season. During his 11 games in New England, Gordon recorded 40 receptions for 720 yards and three touchdowns. When extrapolated to a 16-game sample, Gordon would have finished as the WR24 with 55 receptions for 983 yards and five touchdowns. This is impressive enough for a player who essentially missed four straight seasons, but it’s easy to make those numbers look even better.
Gordon was a low-end WR2 despite not consistently playing for four years, changing teams, and having to learn one of the most complex offenses in football basically overnight. Developing trust with Tom Brady is one of the hardest things to do in New England, yet Gordon managed to do it on the fly. There really is no overstating how impressive this is, and it shows that he should be able to repeat his success in 2019.
Gordon didn’t have that high of a snap count until Week Six against the Kansas City Chiefs. During his first two weeks in New England, the Patriots gradually tried to work him back and incorporate him into the offense. Despite this, he managed to be a valuable fantasy piece in just about every game he played. He did this by averaging a ridiculous 18.0 yards-per-catch and 2.15 yards per route run. The 18 yards/catch is the best of any Tom Brady receiver with 50 or more targets, while the 2.15 yards per route run was the 12th-best in the league.
All of this is to say that Josh Gordon is still really good at football. However, he’s off the field far more often than he’s on it. With that in mind, what should you expect in 2019, and where should you take him in your drafts?
2019 Projection
Josh Gordon should be even better than last year when he’s actually on the field. Gordon already has Brady’s trust and a knowledge of the playbook that he didn’t have at this time last year, and won’t have to spend any time learning new plays or gaining Tom Brady’s trust.
Additionally, Gordon figures to be a bigger part of New England’s offense. The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement and currently have Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Phillip Dorsett, and Maurice Harris battling various ailments. Brady needs a reliable target, and he and Gordon already have a connection. Barring something completely unforeseen, Gordon should start opposite Edelman in Week One.
Losing Gronkowski could also help Gordon’s final touchdown line. Rob Gronkowski was the best red zone weapon in football, and Brady will need to find a new target inside the 20. Gordon has the best chance of filling those shoes, as his 6’3”, 225-pound frame allows him to win contested catches in tight spaces.
Josh Gordon Average Draft Position
Gordon’s going to give you WR2 production with WR1 upside every time he takes the field. However, he probably won’t take the field for a full 16-game season. Gordon’s battling a serious substance abuse issue and can’t seem to consistently fend off his demons. While his long-term health is obviously the priority, the fact of the matter is he’s on thin ice. Gordon was only reinstated conditionally, and the NFL will suspend him again if he slips up. Unfortunately, given his track record, you have to assume he’s going to slip up at some point. Treat every week like a gift, but understand that gift could go away at any moment.
Josh Gordon will put up great numbers, but his high risk means you shouldn’t take him anywhere earlier than the sixth or seventh round. Let’s say you’re on the clock and deciding between him and a guy like Allen Robinson or Alshon Jeffery. Take a look at your existing team: if you already have two good receivers, take a high-upside swing on Josh Gordon. If you don’t, take the safer path and go for the reliable yet unexciting veterans.
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