Week Six of the fantasy football season is a critical time for all teams, especially those below .500. Currently there are 16 NFL teams that sit below 2-2. One more loss can make playoff hopes almost impossible. We have only two teams on bye with the Minnesota Vikings and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting needed rest. There are four teams now coming off their bye weeks: the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, and New Orleans Saints.
Week Six Fantasy Football: Boom or Bust
This is not just a “garden variety” fantasy football column. Recommending to start Tom Brady, or sit a backup running back is a waste of time. The “Booms” will be those players that have under-performed this season, but project to do well this week. The “Busts” will be players who have been quality fantasy producers, but will disappoint in this week’s matchup. Each week this column will give 20 Boom/Busts for fantasy lineups, including a full disclosure breakdown of the prior week. Please enjoy the balance of contrarian predictions with full accountability.
Season Record: 36-24 (60 percent)
BOOMS
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills, QB
Matchup: Home vs. San Francisco 49ers
Year To Date Positional Rank: 15th
Projection: RB12 or better
Very quietly, the Buffalo Bills have won three games in a row (two on the road) and are one game behind New England in the division. Even without Sammy Watkins, the Bills have won with a ball control offense and a strong defense. Taylor has started to run more, with 132 rushing yards over his last three games. Taylor gets a San Francisco 49ers defense just ravaged by injuries. Still available on your waiver wire, he is a fantastic bye week replacement for Jameis Winston and will be a top-12 QB play this week.
Brian Hoyer, Chicago Bears, QB
Matchup: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Year To Date Positional Rank: 19th
Projection: QB11 or better
Hoyer is fresh off an impressive road performance of 397 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears offense is playing well, and this week they welcome a Jacksonville defense that gave up 38 points at San Diego and 30 points in London against the Indianapolis Colts. Hoyer should have a healthy trio of wide receivers in Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, and last week’s big breakout Cameron Meredith. Teams coming off their bye have started sluggish this season, and Chicago should cruise to their biggest win of the season. Hoyer is a top-12 quarterback play.
James White, New England Patriots, RB
Matchup: Home vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Year To Date Positional Rank: 46th
Projection: RB24 or better
Fantasy players should like what they saw from White last week. In Tom Brady’s first game back off of suspension, White had five rushes and four receptions for a total of eight fantasy points. The screen passes returned, and White looked the part of a solid RB2 option. This week the Patriots get the Bengals who only rank 17th defensively against the run. After a poor performance in Dallas, the Patriots will roll in their first home game with Brady. White is a safe bet to score his first touchdown of the season, and is a great top-24 running back play in Week Six.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans, RB
Matchup: Home vs. Indianapolis Colts
Year To Date Positional Rank: 22nd
Projection: RB12 or better
Miller owners have been waiting for this game all season. The consensus first-round fantasy draft pick is still looking for first first touchdown this season. That will change on Sunday Night Football when Houston hosts an Indianapolis defense that is giving up the second most (29.6) points per game in the league. Bears running back Jordan Howard rolled up 118 rushing yards on just 16 carries for a 7.4 yards per carry average. Miller will finally find the end zone and will catapult up the running back season totals with an RB1 showing. Start him with confidence in all formats.
John Brown, Arizona Cardinals, WR
Matchup: Home vs. New York Jets
Year To Date Positional Rank: 86th
Projection: WR24 or better
The best play of the week is John Brown of Arizona. In Week Five, Brown torched the Rams at home for ten catches and 144 yards. In that game, Brown had 15 targets which was only three less than his first three combined weeks. Most fantasy owners probably forgot about Brown after his one point output vs. San Francisco last week. But with Carson Palmer scheduled to return at quarterback against a Jets secondary giving up 302.1 passing yards per game, Brown will shine. Fellow wide receiver Michael Floyd is really struggling, so look for Brown to be the main downfield threat on Monday Night Football.
Additional Booms
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears, WR
Matchup: Home vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Year To Date Positional Rank: 30th
Projection: WR12 or better
Rationale: After being visibly frustrated with lack of targets vs. Indianapolis, the squeaky wheel gets oiled at home vs. Jaguars
Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, TE
Matchup: Home vs. Dallas
Year To Date Positional Rank: 36th
Projection: TE12 or better
Rationale: With Jared Cook out and Randall Cobb hurting, Rodgers will be a top-12 TE against a Dallas defense that ranks 27th against opposing fantasy tight ends.
Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills, TE
Matchup: Home vs. San Francisco 49ers
Year To Date Positional Rank: 23rd
Projection: TE12 or better
Rationale: He’s seen 12 targets in the last two games. San Francisco is allowing the tenth-most points per game to opposing tight ends, and there’s no Sammy Watkins to steal targets.
Bilal Powell, New York Jets, RB
Matchup: Away vs. Arizona Cardinals
Year To Date Positional Rank: 47th
Projection: RB24 or better
Rationale: Powell has secured six receptions each of the last three games. The Cardinals stuff run at home, and the Jets will be forced to pass to keep the game close on Monday Night Football.
Detroit Lions Defense
Matchup: Home vs. Los Angeles Rams
Year To Date Positional Rank: 20th
Projection: DEF12 or better
Rationale: In each of Lions two home games this season, the defense has been an top-12 fantasy performer.
BUSTS
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, QB
Matchup: Away at Seattle Seahawks
Year To Date Positional Rank: First
Projection: QB13 or worse (Do Not Start)
Ryan has been nothing short of brilliant through five games. He is the number one ranked fantasy quarterback, and leads the league with 1,740 passing yards. It will take some moxie, but fantasy owners should put Ryan on the bench this week at Seattle. In two career games in the Emerald City, Ryan is only averaging 232 passing yards per contest. A well rested Seahawks defense ranks second overall against the pass. It is asking a lot for the 4-1 Atlanta Falcons to repeat the brilliant performance last week in Denver. Back-to-back road games means Ryan should hit the fantasy bench for Week Six.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, RB
Matchup: Away at New England Patriots
Year To Date Positional Rank: 23rd
Projection: RB30 or worse
Hill greatly disappointed in Dallas last week. A combination of game flow and a downplayed injury (chest) were the likely culprits. Regardless, the Bengals face the eight-toughest run defense (86.4 ypg) on the road in New England. In Tom Brady’s first home game of the season, this game script could be similar to last week’s. Even if healthy, fantasy owners should look to someone else for a starting running back this week.
Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts, TE
Matchup: Away at Houston Texans
Year To Date Positional Rank: Ninth
Projection: TE13 or worse
Don’t be tempted by Allen’s overall fantasy ranking. The veteran tight end is a feast of famine player that will definitely go Bust this week. The Colts travel to Houston for Sunday Night Football, and face a Texans defense that is only allowing two fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. On the road this season, Allen is average two receptions for 22.5 yards per game. There are several better waiver wire tight ends available, and he may not outscore fellow tight end Jack Doyle regardless. Leave Allen on the bench.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, QB
Matchup: Away at Green Bay Packers
Year To Date Positional Rank: 10th
Projection: QB15 or worse
It has been extremely impressive to watch Dak Prescott emerge as a rookie quarterback this season. Through five games, Cowboys fans could not have asked for more than the 10th ranked fantasy quarterback. However, it is long overdue for a bad performance, and Prescott ranks outside the top quarterbacks this week in Green Bay. The Packers run defense ranks first in the league allowing only 42.8 yards per game. This means Prescott will have to attack through the air, and may still be without the services of wide receiver Dez Bryant. The crew of Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams, and Brice Butler just won’t be enough to win in Lambeau Field. With or without cornerback Sam Shields, Prescott will fall outside the top-12 this week.
Matt Forte, New York Jets, RB
Matchup: Away at Arizona Cardinals
Year To Date Positional Rank: 12th
Projection: RB24 or worse
The fact that Matt Forte is currently a top-12 running back is pure fantasy fraudulence. An incredible 75 percent of his 56 fantasy points came in the first two weeks. His weekly production each of the last three weeks has been six, three, and five fantasy points. In that same time period, fellow running back Bilal Powell has scored seven, seven, and five fantasy points. Forte is not even the best running on his team at the moment. Traveling to Arizona, against a strong Cardinals defense is no easy task. Throw in a potential playing from behind game script, and Forte is a must avoid this week in all fantasy backfields.
Additional Busts
Tyrell Williams, San Diego Chargers, WR
Matchup: Home vs. Denver Broncos
Year To Date Positional Rank: 18th
Projection: WR28 or worse
Rationale: Feast or famine Williams struggles against Denver’s mighty secondary.
Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots, TE
Matchup: Home vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Year To Date Positional Rank: Second
Projection: TE12 or worse
Rationale: First home game for Brady means a big Rob Gronkowski game. Bennett will be minimized.
Terrelle Pryor, Cleveland, WR
Matchup: Away at Tennessee Titans
Year To Date Positional Rank: 17th
Projection: WR13 or worse
Rationale: Injured quarterbacks are hurting Pryor’s performance. A road game vs. a tough Titans defense will provide struggles.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals, WR
Matchup: Away at New England Patriots
Year To Date Positional Rank: Eighth
Projection: WR20 or worse
Rationale: Top outside wide receivers against the Patriots this season are averaging 4.2 catches for 56 yards and no touchdowns.
Baltimore Ravens Defense
Matchup: Away at New York Giants
Year To Date Positional Rank: Sixth
Projection: DEF12 or worse
Rationale: Facing a desperate Giants team at home, this is the Ravens biggest road test so far (at Cleveland, at Jacksonville).
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