{"id":236,"date":"2026-07-24T17:06:05","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T17:06:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/?p=236"},"modified":"2026-07-24T19:40:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T19:40:53","slug":"ufc-abu-dhabi-fight-predictions-and-betting-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/2026\/07\/24\/ufc-abu-dhabi-fight-predictions-and-betting-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs Guskov \u2013 Fight Predictions and Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs Guskov. We are back at the Etihad Arena for this stacked slate of fights here in the Middle East. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>UFC Abu Dhabi Fight Predictions and Betting Analysis<\/h2>\n<p><b>Current Record 2026<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony: 197-87-4 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick: 187-97-4 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 7-24-2026 at 1pm EST<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/36\/2026\/07\/Alex-Pereira-vs-Magomed-Ankalaev.webp\" alt=\"Magomed Ankalaev beats Alex Pereira at UFC 313\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/36\/2026\/07\/Alex-Pereira-vs-Magomed-Ankalaev.webp 1200w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/36\/2026\/07\/Alex-Pereira-vs-Magomed-Ankalaev-768x512.webp 768w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/36\/2026\/07\/Alex-Pereira-vs-Magomed-Ankalaev-600x400.webp 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>UFC Abu Dhabi Preliminary Card Odds, Predictions, Breakdown<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>Preliminary Card- Starts 9:00am EST<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Abdul Hussein -550 vs Cody Gibson +400<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The card today begins with bantamweights Abdul Hussein and Cody Gibson. This is the debut for Hussein in the UFC as he enters with an overall record of 15-2. Hussein also had an extensive amateur record including a IMMAF World Championship win in 2016. He has been very active the previous year and continuing to hone his skillset. Hussein is comfortable in all areas and especially good when it comes to wrestling. Here facing Gibson in his debut seems like a rather easy task. This is a 38 year old opponent who is not quite as dynamic as he once was in his earlier career. Gibson also has limited power standing, often relying on his offensive grappling to be a deciding factor in his fights. I do not want to overlook the jiu jitsu brownbelt that Gibson has, but there is going to be little that he can do against Hussein in bottom position. Hussein will be the fighter here controlling positions and utilizing heavy top pressure to win rounds. I expect that Hussein will break down Gibson and find a stoppage win before the final horn. It seems risky to play Hussein at -550 odds but his price is better than some of the other favorites competing here today. <\/span><b>Abdul Hussein <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Abdul Hussein will be making his UFC debut here, entering the promotion with a 15-2 professional record at 28 years old. Hussein has been a highly regarded prospect for years, having won both the IMMAF European and World Championship Gold medals as an amateur. Hussein is primarily a grappler, with outstanding offensive attacks, a knack for finding his opponents backs, and a deep gas tank that allows him to pressure his opponents relentlessly. He has power on the feet and his striking continues to improve, but there is no denying his greatest advantages will come on the mat in most match-ups. Hussein has one of the more impressive resumes we\u2019ve seen for a UFC newcomer in quite some time,\u00a0 most recently securing an impressive KO win over a former UFC fighter in Tyson Nam. Cody Gibson will be taking this fight on just two weeks\u2019 notice as a late replacement for the injured Muin Gafarov. Cody Gibson is 21-12 professionally, coming off back-to-back finish losses to Aoriqileng and Da\u2019Mon Blackshear. He\u2019s generally well-rounded, with seven of his professional wins coming via KO and five coming via submission. He\u2019s getting up there in age, but he is experienced with a high fight IQ. Gibson does a good job pushing a pace and forcing his opponents to fight moving backwards. He can be hittable in extended striking exchanges, but he has solid cardio and process for someone his age. That being said, his durability seems to be depleting at a rapid rate. Even with a full training camp I expect Gibson would struggle in this match-up at this point in his career. Hussein has a major grappling advantage here, and with Gibson\u2019s durability depleting I also expect Hussein to find success on the feet. <\/span><b>Abdul Hussein <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two Submission<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Nurullo Aliev -220 vs Mike Davis +180<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Next is a matchup at lightweight between Mike Davis and Nurullo Aliev. There is some value in Davis here as he is a great athlete with all the weapons needed to succeed. He won in his last appearance but the bout before was a very bad showing here in Abu Dhabi. After that fight Davis complained of the conditions he fought in and alleged that a paint smell in his locker room was cause for the defeat. That narrative is a factor in this fight and I think it will distract Davis on the day of this event once more. In perfect conditions he can stand and win a kickboxing match against Aliev but this will be a sloppy fight with very high pace from the jump. Aliev is still undefeated and he does well to take rounds off his opponents. Here wrestling against Davis and pushing him to the octagon side will be beneficial in swaying the local judges. Aliev has proven to be durable and capable of fighting a very hard fifteen minutes. I expect that this bout will go the scorecards and Aliev will get his hand raised whether he deserves this victory or not. Odds here opened with Aliev the slight favorite but he has now moved all the way to -220 in most places. Davis is talented enough to win this fight but I would avoid him given the line movement and narrative here coming back to Abu Dhabi. <\/span><b>Nurullo Aliev<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nurullo Aliev is 11-0 professionally, with quality wins in the UFC, AMC and Eagle FC. He\u2019s primarily a wrestler, with solid submission ability and pace. He\u2019s fighting out of Tajikistan, but he seems to have a similar high-pressure chain wrestling style that we see in fighters coming out of Dagestan and Chechnya. He is 3-0 in the UFC, but he\u2019s taking a considerable step up in competition here against a tough out in Mike Davis. Mike Davis is a technical brawler who is extremely dangerous on the feet. Eight of his eleven professional wins have come via KO. He has underrated wrestling ability as well, and at 33-years-old it seems he\u2019s entering his prime. Davis has been inactive for most of his UFC career as he has dealt with auto-immune diseases in his time outside of the cage. When he\u2019s at his best, he\u2019s one of the more underrated fighters on the roster, but he\u2019s always a difficult fighter to handicap given his general inconsistencies in the cage. Aliev is eight years younger and he should be able to take Davis down early. However, if Davis shows up in peak form I expect he can start to find success as this fight wears on. Davis is the better striker here and I expect Aliev to struggle to find takedowns in rounds two and three. <\/span><b>Mike Davis<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Magomed Tuchalov -800 vs Brendson Ribeiro +550<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Next is a bout at light heavyweight between Brendson Ribeiro and Magomed Tuchalov. Historically it is not great news for Brazilians traveling here in search of a win on the road. The odds reflect that as Tuchalov is one of the biggest favorites on today\u2019s card. Tuchalov is still undefeated as he hones his skillset and appears now once or twice each year. His striking blends solid boxing with a very explosive attack that works in mixed martial arts. Tuchalov blends his knees and kicks into combinations very well and for a fighter of his size I like the speed and ferocity that he moves. The early part of this fight will likely be a car crash and Tuchalov should hold up here throwing bombs against Ribeiro. This is a fighter that has not seen the end of round two as a professional. Ribeiro would be smart to slow down the pace here and challenge Tuchalov will some exchanges in the clinch. We have seen Ribeiro extend some fights before but now he has lost three straight appearances in the very first round. Tuchalov has picked favorable matchups so far on his resume and here it does not get much better than opposing Ribeiro for your UFC debut. This should be an early win for Tuchalov via knockout. <\/span><b>Magomed Tuchalov<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Round One KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Magomed Tuchalov will be making his UFC debut here, with a 6-0 professional record at 26 years old. Tuchalov breaks into the promotion off of an impressive KO win over Caio Machado to capture the UAEW Vacant Light Heavyweight Championship. Tuchalov is a technically sound striker with great speed and instincts. His defensive grappling is somewhat untested, but his footwork makes him tough to close the distance on. He is willing to grapple offensively if an opportunity presents itself, but more often than not he\u2019s comfortable striking at range as that is where he finds most of his success. Brendson Ribeiro is primarily a striker with a kill-or-be-killed level of aggression. He is extremely dangerous on the feet offensively, but he leaves himself open to be countered in exchanges. Fifteen of his sixteen professional wins have come via finish, and he has continued to show improvement on the mat. That being said he is 0-3 in the UFC and he has been finished in each of those losses. Ribeiro is athletic and can be dangerous early, but he\u2019s very hittable and lacks durability. It feels like the UFC is putting this match-up together as a means to boost Tuchalov\u2019s stock as a prospect. Tuchalov should dominate here as the heavy favorite. <\/span><b>Magomed Tuchalov <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round One KO<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Axel Sola -200 vs Ismael Bonfim +160<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The next fight is a great lightweight matchup between Ismael Bonfim and Axel Sola. Since joining the promotion Sola has lived up to the hype beating Rhys McKee and fighting Mason Jones to a very close decision. He is a fighter that tends to build as the fight goes on and has the cardio suited for a five round main event if needed. The gas tank is a key factor here as Bonfim has only once gone the distance in the UFC. Three opponents have been able to finish Bonfim by exerting pressure and putting him into uncomfortable positions. Bonfim will be very dangerous here striking against Sola early and the odds do reflect that he has a good shot standing up. Sola mixes up his striking and grappling often but leaves himself exposed to counters and knees from his opponents. Bonfim may be able to capitalize here and stop Sola in round one but after that the pendulum will swing out of his favor. It appears that Bonfim has improved his weight cut as he comfortably made the limit here on Friday. This fight will likely be more competitive than the odds would suggest but Sola will still take over late. He should be able to stop Bonfim but even if it goes to the scorecards Sola should stay busy enough to take the latter two rounds no matter what. Odds of -200 are a little rich so instead I suggest live betting on Sola after the first five minutes. <\/span><b>Axel Sola <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Axel Sola enters this match-up with an 11-1-1 professional record at just 28 years old. A former\u00a0 Ares FC Lightweight Champion fighting out of France, he\u2019s coming off the first loss of his career to Mason Jones.\u00a0 Sola is relatively well rounded, but finds most of his success at striking range. Six of his eleven professional wins have come via KO. Sola is a southpaw boxer who does a good job throwing in combination. He\u2019s competent on the mat, but he really hasn\u2019t been tested extensively against high level wrestlers or grapplers. He has solid footwork and he has shown an ability to weaponize his cardio at times, but his greatest strength could be his durability as it was fully on display his last time out in that fight against Jones. Ismael Bonfim is 20-6 professionally, coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his professional career. Bonfim is a dangerous and explosive striker that does a good job feinting to lead his opponents into power shots. He has solid BJJ and he\u2019s competent in scrambles, but his hyper aggressive style does occasionally leave him there to be countered. His cardio and durability seem to be weaknesses for him more than they are strengths, Bonfim is talented offensively, but he hates adversity. When he can\u2019t finish fights quickly, he ends up on the wrong end of finishes. Sola is well-rounded, but his greatest strength is his toughness. This is usually a red flag, but in this match-up that could play to his favor. I expect Bonfim to look great early here, but he\u2019s going to be in trouble if he can\u2019t find a finish. Sola has proven to be the tougher and more durable fighter in this matchup. <\/span><b>Axel Sola<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Round Three KO<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Sam Patterson -470 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +360<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This is a fight at welterweight between Sam Patterson and Santiago Ponzinibbio. I have really liked Patterson since moving up to 170 pounds as he is much more durable and willing to engage. He was defeated in his last fight against Michael Venum Page but Patterson continues to develop and perform fine against top level competition. Here he is really taking a step back in opponent against the aged veteran Ponzinibbio. There is going to be a big discrepancy here in speed with Patterson much faster. Ponzinibbio cannot get off many boxing combinations if Patterson is connecting from the start with long kicks and jabs from range. Patterson is three inches taller than Ponzinibbio with a five-inch advantage in reach. There is also almost no threat of grappling in this fight from Ponzinibbio who has never really pursued takedowns. Patterson has the option of chasing submissions here if things do not work out well for him standing. He is a very confident pick for me to win. Ponzinibbio has suffered at least one knockdown in four of his previous five appearances. Patterson will be able to win via finish here by landing clean and following up against Ponzinibbio. There are not many wins left ahead of Santiago who is now 39 years old and certainly looking his age. It seems like a recipe for disaster appearing on short notice against such a dynamic opponent. <\/span><b>Sam Patterson <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sam Patterson is 14-3-1 professionally, with six wins coming via KO and seven coming via submission. He has a long frame for the division, but his striking defense is generally flawed as his chin is there to be hit in exchanges. He\u2019s decent everywhere offensively, he has an effective choke series, and he wisely looks to grapple aggressively in most of his match-ups. Santiago Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He is just 2-5 across his last seven fights and there is no denying the fact he is far past his athletic prime. At his best, Ponzinibbio is a talented striker who mixes kicks well into his combinations. He has solid cardio and durability, and he generally finds success when he can force his opponents to fight moving backwards. The line feels wide here as Patterson has been inconsistent and Ponzinibbio has a considerable experience advantage. That being said, these are two fighters whose careers are headed in opposite directions. Ponzinibbio probably looks good here until he doesn\u2019t. <\/span><b>Sam Patterson <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two KO<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Dustin Jacoby -170 vs Muhammad Said +145<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This is a light heavyweight matchup with Muhammad Said taking on Dustin Jacoby. These odds seem to be a bit closer than they should be as Said makes his promotional debut. Said is 9-0 overall but his resume does not have any quality victories. His best win was arguably in his last fight beating 37 year old veteran Luis Henrique da Silva. It appears that Said has legitimate kickboxing skills but I think that will pale in comparison to Jacoby who has been doing it at this level for much longer. A striking match favors Jacoby who is very technically skilled and sound with his defense. Jacoby will use his length here to keep Said from crashing into the pocket early. Both men will throw kicks but in a close match decided at this range I am almost always going to bet on the Hanyak.\u00a0 He has seven knockouts in the UFC and more wins in the promotion than Said has in total. Said has not showcased much in terms of his offensive grappling but even if he were some dynamo I do not think he would easily take Jacoby to the ground. Said knows his best chance to win will be via knockout but after throwing hard in round one he is going to fall apart. I am confidently picking Jacoby to win here with another vintage performance. He has won three straight fights by knockout against better opponents than this one. <\/span><b>Dustin Jacoby <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Muhammad Said will be making his UFC debut here, breaking into the promotion with a 9-0 professional record at 30 years old. Said is a kickboxer who finds success by pressuring his opponents and forcing them to fight while moving backwards. He carries power in all of his limbs, but his cardio and durability are somewhat untested as he\u2019s yet to face anyone near UFC level. He does seem to have some offensive grappling ability, but he prefers to stand and trade on the feet. Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He\u2019s been inconsistent over his last few fights, but he\u2019s still a tough out for the majority of the division. Jacoby\u2019s durability is a bit of a concern here, but he\u2019s been taking on a much higher level of competition compared to Muhammad Said. I expect Jacoby to outstrike Said at range here and he should be able to work his way back to his feet if he is taken down. Said has been impressive regionally, but this represents a dramatic step up for him in terms of level of competition.<\/span><b> Dustin Jacoby <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two KO<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Valter Walker -180 vs Thomas Petersen +155<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The featured prelim is a heavyweight matchup with Thomas Petersen facing Valter Walker. The immediate threat when facing Walker is of course the heel hook as he now won four straight fights by that round one submission. The best bet for the method of victory here is another round one heel hook. Walker continues to develop his other skills between fight camps but the heel hook is now his gimmick and he will continue to chase it until it fails. Petersen actually has a wrestling background that suggests that he can defend takedowns and stay safe on the ground. However, Walker does not really look for traditional single legs to get down his opponents. Walker is almost pulling guard at the start of any entanglement with confidence that he can snatch up a leg and finish his submission hold right away. He is larger and heavier than Petersen making him dangerous as they do begin to roll. Walker is also very comfortable competing here in this region of the world. There is not much that Petersen can do to disrupt this gameplan even if he lands some nice combinations. The odds should be much wider here. I do not think Walker should be facing guys that are outside of the division top fifteen. <\/span><b>Valter Walker <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round One Submission\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Valter Walker is the younger brother of popular light heavyweight and roster main-stay, Johnny Walker. He is 15-1 professionally, most recently securing a quick win via submission over Louie Sutherland. Walker has a massive frame and an 81\u201d reach, but he is primarily a grappler. He finds most of his success working his opponents to the mat and finishing them via ground-and-pound or submission. At 28-years old he\u2019s young for the division, but he\u2019ll need to improve his striking if he has hopes of breaking into the rankings. He has won each of his last four fights via heel hook, and he\u2019s likely going to pursue that same submission here against Thomas Petersen. Thomas Petersen is 11-4 professionally, and at 31-years old he\u2019s actually one of the younger heavyweights on the roster. Peterson is relatively well-rounded, but he can be tentative at times as he waits for fights to come for him. He has power on the feet, but he hasn\u2019t really developed the ability to throw extended combinations. He\u2019s a capable offensive wrestler, but he seems hesitant at times to lean on that part of his game. His cardio and durability are both questionable at best, but he does seem to be steadily improving. If Walker can\u2019t get this fight to the mat and find an early submission he\u2019s going to be in trouble here. That being said, I expect he will. Petersen doesn\u2019t really have the power or takedown defense to slow Walker down. <\/span><b>Valter Walker<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Round One Submission<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card Odds, Predictions, Breakdown<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>Main Card- Starts 12:00pm EST<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Abubakar Vagaev -250 vs Saygid Izagakhmaev +200<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The main card begins with a fight at welterweight between Abubakar Vagaev and Saygid Izagakhmaev. Originally Vagaev was scheduled to debut here against Magomedrasul Gasanov but now instead it will be Izagakhmaev appearing here on short notice. The debut for Izagakhmaev did not go well in Doha last fall but that was against a tough opponent in Nicolas Dalby. The chances for Izagakhmaev may be slim here on short notice but early in the fight he is very dangerous against Vagaev who can be caught. Three of Vagaev\u2019s losses have come by knockout against some of his better competition. I think that Vagaev could be a real problem with his strong wrestling and overall skillset but here in his debut I also worry that he may get clipped. Izagakhmaev is confident in his grappling but I think he knows that he will be outworked there in this fight. Rounds two and three would likely see Vagaev taking over and scoring multiple minutes of top control. This fight will be decided in the first five minutes whether Izagakhmaev can win early by knockout or a club and sub. His length will be a weapon at striking range here but an issue if Vagaev does get a hold of him. I like these odds on a card that lacks quality underdogs. <\/span><b>Saygid Izagakhmaev <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round One KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Saygid Izagakhmaev enters this match-up with a 22-3 professional record at 32 years old, coming into this fight off a hard fought loss to Nicolas Dalby that came in his UFC debut. Izagakhmaev is a Dagestani wrestler with a solid Sambo background. Like many fighters from this part of the world, he does a good job forcing a pace and chain grappling, He has a solid level of experience outside of the UFC as most of his recent career has come under contract for ONE Championship. He\u2019s an opportunistic finisher no matter where his fights go, and many expect him to be a welcome addition to an already crowded welterweight division. In his debut his cardio seemed to be a weakness, and he\u2019s in another tough spot here against his fellow countryman in Abubakar Vagaev. Abubakar Vagaev will be making his UFC debut here, entering the promotion with a 24-4 professional record at 34 years old. Vagaev has spent the majority of his professional career fighting for ACA, where he captured and defended the ACA Welterweight Championship. Primarily a wrestler, Vagaev uses a pressure grappling style to wear on and frustrate his opponents. He does a good job controlling position up against the cage and while his striking has been improving, he is almost always looking to take his opponents to the mat. It is notable that three of Vagaev\u2019s four professional losses have come via KO. His durability makes him somewhat vulnerable in spite of his offensive skills. Vagaev can control this fight on the mat as the better grappler with better cardio, but his chin is concerning. That being said, I do see him as the rightful favorite in spite of an inflated price tag. <\/span><b>Abubakar Vagaev<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Rizvan Kuniev -330 vs Tyrell Fortune +260<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This is a heavyweight matchup with Rizvan Kuniev facing Tyrell Fortune. I do not expect this to be a very exciting fight as both men are near the heavyweight limit. Kuniev is hard to move inside of the cage and if Fortune plans to wrestle throughout this fight it is going to be a very grueling match. Kuniev has shown tremendous takedown defense and he uses his weight to wear out his opponents. The good wrestling that Fortune showcased in his promotional debut will be completely negated, leaving him stuck attacking awkwardly from distance. Kuniev might even look for the clinch himself to burn minutes off the clock here with Fortune stuck with his back to the fence. Kuniev does well landing small knees and elbows to stay busy throughout these exchanges. He can win most moments here grappling even if he is now steroid free. It was a decision win for Fortune his last time out but that fight was very close until the end. Kuniev will get the nod here from local judges no matter how much good work Fortune can really do. Kuniev has already fought to the scorecards against Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida. Fortune seems like a step down in competition. <\/span><b>Rizvan Kuniev<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is notable that Kuniev tested positive for anabolic steroids before breaking into the UFC. He is currently 1-1 in the promotion, coming off a solid win over a tough out in Jailton Almeida. Kuniev is relatively well rounded, with six of his thirteen wins coming via KO and three coming via submission. It seems lately he prefers to stand and trade on the feet, but he carries grappling upside against the majority of the heavyweight division. His durability and cardio have been solid in spite of the fact he\u2019s likely no longer on PEDs, and he\u2019s taking a considerable step down in terms of level of competition in this match-up. Tyrell Fortune enters this fight with a 18-3 professional record at 35 years old. He is coming off a solid win over Marcic Tybura which came in his UFC debut. Fortune has spent a majority of his career fighting for Bellator and the PFL. Fortune favors a wrestling heavy game plan in most of his fights. He has power on the feet, but his striking is mostly used as a means to push his opponents backwards and then take them to the mat. His cardio and durability have been questionable at times, but he is almost always dangerous early in his fights. These are two fighters with similar styles, We have two similar fighters here, but Kuniev is the better striker with better cardio and durability. Fortune is going to struggle to get his grappling going, which likely spells trouble for him in this matchup. <\/span><b>Rizvan Kuniev<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Magomed Zaynukov -300 vs Damian Rzepecki +240<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Here is a matchup at lightweight between Magomed Zaynukov and Damian Rzepecki. \u2018Chanco\u2019 Zaynukov is undefeated and here making his promotional debut. He earned a contract last year on Dana White\u2019s Contender Series after a good battle with Lucas Caldas. Zaynukov is respected as an elite muay thai striker. He has trained for years with Islam Makhachev and the Nurmagomedov team to improve their offensive striking. Zaynukov has also grown a lot as a wrestler thanks to the teammates that he works alongside. Rzepecki seems like a good matchup for his debut as this fighter can bring a style scrap that suits both. They are going to stand orthodox and sling shots at one another from the very start of round one. Zaynukov is the much more skilled fighter but he also can be a bit reckless when it comes to these brawls. Rzepecki will have opportunities here to counter and hurt Zaynukov. I do believe that after a hectic round one we see the better fighter separate himself. Zaynukov will turn up the volume and outwork Rzepecki here after he finds his rhythm. Zaynukov also has the ability to finish this fight using his kicks. This is a formidable opponent but on short notice, Rzepecki will struggle to keep pace here for a full three rounds. The odds are wide here but Chanko is one of my more confident picks. <\/span><b>Magomed Zaynukov<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Magomed Zaynukov will be making his UFC debut here, with an 8-0 professional record at 31 years old. Zaynukov enters this match-up off an impressive Contender Series win over Lucas Caldas in which he won via dominant decision. Zaynukov is a protege and teammate of both Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev. He\u2019s a gifted Muay Thai striker who fights well both in close and at range, and unlike both Makhachev and Nurmagomedov, he prefers his fights to mostly stay on the feet. Zaynukov puts out a lot of volume as a striker and he has the cardio to push a serious pace. It\u2019s rare we see him pursue takedowns, but he does have underrated grappling ability. Damian Rzepecki will be making his UFC debut here with a 10-0 professional record at just 24 years old. Rzepecki is relatively well rounded with four of his professional wins coming via KO and five coming via Submission. He\u2019s a dangerous BJJ player and excellent in scrambles. His takedown entries are far from refined, but he has enough talent on the feet to catch his opponents off guard if he his looking to take them down. Rzepecki is more than willing to exchange in a fire fight, which could prove to be an issue for him here against Zaynukov. Rzepecki is a talented and intriguing prospect, but I still see Zaynukov as the rightful favorite. He\u2019s going to put out and land more volume in this matchup. I also expect he can win the scrambles if Rzepecki tries to take him down. <\/span><b>Magomed Zaynukov<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Islam Dulatov -900 vs Wellington Turman +650<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The featured fight is a welterweight bout of Islam Dulatov against Wellington Turman. There is a clear A-side in this matchup as Dulatov looks the part of a future star. His debut performance in the UFC was very clean and here he will look to replicate that against a vulnerable opponent. Turman is only 30 years old but he seems over the hill already in terms of his fight career. He has been the loser of three straight and now Turman has been looking for answers training with the team at Teixeira MMA and Fitness. It has been more than two years since he last competed and this is not the matchup he needs to shake off the rust. Dulatov has showcased himself already as an explosive finisher and big threat in round one. Turman needs to be dialed in the very first minute or else Dulatov will rush him and score a knockout. Speed is a clear advantage for Dulatov but he is also long and springy at this weight. Dulatov has not been tested much in fights that get extended but Turman has also not proven to be someone capable of pushing a hard pace for three rounds. The finish should materialize here for the big favorite but if it does not we could see a sloppy round two and three. The moneyline odds here seem too rich for me but nonetheless I always enjoy fading Wellington Turman. <\/span><b>Islam Dulatov <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round One KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Islam Dulatov enters this match-up with a 12-1 professional record at 27 years old. He\u2019s coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut, which came via KO of Adam Fugitt. Dulatov is fairly well-rounded, entering this match-up with seven wins via KO and five via submission. While he&#8217;s dangerous offensively everywhere, his power on the feet is what has led him to the majority of his success to this point in his career. Wellington Turman is a decent grappler, but he hasn\u2019t really exhibited much of a Fight IQ. His durability is questionable at best and we haven\u2019t really seen his cardio hold up consistently at this level. He has some power on the feet, but he usually telegraphs his strikes and defensively he struggles at times as he leaves himself open to counter shots. He enters this fight on a three fight losing streak and he has been out of action now since December of 2023. Turman was forced to undergo shoulder surgery, which held him out of the promotion much longer than expected. Islam Dulatov is another prospect the UFC is looking to build. I expect he finds success here in an extremely favorable matchup.<\/span><b> Islam Dulato<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">v by Round One KO<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Ramazan Temirov -120 vs Steve Erceg +100<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The co-main event is a scrap at flyweight between Ramazan Temirov and Steve Erceg. This is a compelling fight with a lot of possible outcomes. Erceg\u2019s durability is always a major concern but this appeared to be a solid weight cut for him. Temirov tends to throw heavy hands and chasing the knockout will be his clearest path to victory today. Opponents seem to understand that Erceg is chinny and somebody that they can hit. Temirov will be crashing into the pocket and connecting with close range attacks here in an attempt to hurt Erceg. Knockouts do not often materialize here at 125 pounds but he could certainly sleep Erceg here. I think every minute will be won by Erceg who throws with more skill and overall volume. He for once has the advantage grappling if he would like to use it. The boxing combinations are nice from Erceg, but he will also change levels and mix in strange attacks to keep Temirov here guessing. I expect that Erceg will do enough optically to win this fight by decision but I do worry that poor judging could give Temirov the nod instead. Temirov has not lost a fight since 2019 and bias could be a factor if two of these rounds are close. At even money I pick Erceg to win but I will not bet money on this fight. <\/span><b>Steve Erceg <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Steve Erceg is 14-4 professionally, with six his those wins coming via submission. He is 2-3 across his last five fights, but each of his losses came against the absolute class of the division. Erceg\u2019s striking continues to improve. He has underrated power and he\u2019s technically sound everywhere. He has excellent cardio, and he\u2019s capable of putting out a lot of volume on his feet. He certainly prefers to grapple, but he\u2019s shown a well-rounded game against a quality level of competition.\u00a0 Temirov has power and he\u2019s coming off a steroid suspension. Ramazan Temirov is 19-2 professionally and he comes into this match-up on a eleven-fight win streak. At 29 years-old it seems he is entering his athletic prime, and five of his last six wins have come via KO. Temirov is relatively well-rounded, but most of his success comes on the feet. He has devastating power for a flyweight, and he generally does a good job striking together lengthy combinations once he closes distance. Erceg has been wildly inconsistent, but his high-volume performance was a great thing to see his last time out. He\u2019ll need to stay safe early here, but I expect he can outclass Temirov as this fight wears on. <\/span><b>Steve Erceg <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Decision<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Magomed Ankalaev -550 vs Bogdan Guskov +400<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Anthony:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The main event is a light heavyweight fight between Bogdan Guskov and Magomed Ankalaev. We were originally promised Ankalaev against Khalil Rountree but now instead Guskov will be competing here on just over a week&#8217;s notice. He carries momentum into this fight with an unbeaten streak of five in a row. Guskov fought to a draw last time against Jan Blachowicz but in that fight he did land a knockdown and prove that he really does belong. Guskov is a massive power threat that will bring out the best in Ankalaev. It is the first appearance for Anakalev since he lost the championship to <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/2026\/07\/02\/jon-jones-alex-pereira-ufc\/\" target=\"_self\">Alex Pereira<\/a> last year. It is hard to imagine back to back losses by knockout here for the former champion. Anaklaev should be at full strength in this matchup against an opponent with an abbreviated camp. I am expecting a good gameplan here to either strike safely for the first few rounds or to shoot very early. Ankalaev has a clear edge wrestling against Guskov but he does not always decide to rely on those skills. He has now fought four times in a row without securing a single takedown. At these odds I do not want to play Anakalev much at these odds but he feels like a sure thing in this main event. Yes when striking Guskov is very dangerous, but so is Anakalaev who is also a sniper at range. <\/span><b>Magomed Ankalaev <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by Round Two KO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Nick:<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Magomed Ankalaev is 21-2-1 professionally, coming off a loss to <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/2026\/07\/16\/alex-pereira-slams-herb-dean\/\" target=\"_self\">Alex Pereira<\/a> via KO that cost him the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship back in October of 2025. Ankalav has ridiculously powerful head kicks as an extremely diverse striker with intelligent footwork. He\u2019s a gifted wrestler as well, but it\u2019s rare we see him lean on that part of his game. At his best, Ankalaev thrives at range with a low-risk but dangerous style. He counters well, he has excellent footwork, and quality durability and cardio. Bogdan Guskov is 18-3-1\u00a0 professionally, with fifteen of those eighteen wins coming via KO. He is 3-2-1 in the UFC, most recently fighting to a Draw against a World Champion in Jan Blachowicz. He is taking this fight on short notice as a late replacement for the injured Khalil Rountree. Guskov is a powerful striker, but his aggressive style makes him a vulnerable target in extended exchanges. He seems to have a decent BJJ game, but we really haven\u2019t seen his grappling tested against the top half of this division. Ankalaev\u2019s easiest path to victory here is on the mat, but I don\u2019t have much confidence in him trying to grapple. Regardless, I see him as a tier above Guskov in terms of overall quality. Guskov may find some early success here, but I expect him to struggle as this fight wears on. His cardio is questionable at best, and he did not have a full camp for a five round fight. <\/span><b>Magomed Ankalaev<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Round Three KO<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AnthonyMarro_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Follow on Twitter @AnthonyMarro_<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NickMarroDFS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Follow on Twitter @NickMarroDFS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Image credit: <span>UFC via BJPenn.com<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs Guskov. We are back at the Etihad Arena for this stacked slate of fights here in the Middle East. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5906,"featured_media":237,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16,81,82,15],"tags":[108,124,120,106,121,119,122,118,117,123],"class_list":["post-236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","category-betting","category-predictions","category-ufc","tag-bogdan-guskov","tag-dustin-jacoby","tag-islam-dulatov","tag-magomed-ankalaev","tag-magomed-zaynukov","tag-ramazan-temirov","tag-rizvan-kuniev","tag-steve-erceg","tag-ufc-fight-night","tag-valter-walker"],"modified_by":"Jeremy Brand, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5906"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=236"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":242,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/236\/revisions\/242"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/mma\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}