{"id":490367,"date":"2026-05-03T08:56:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-03T12:56:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=490367"},"modified":"2026-05-03T08:56:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-03T12:56:49","slug":"nhl-predictions-tampa-bay-lightning-montreal-canadiens-may-3rd-stanley-cup-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2026\/05\/03\/nhl-predictions-tampa-bay-lightning-montreal-canadiens-may-3rd-stanley-cup-playoffs\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Predictions: Round 1, Game 7, Stanley Cup Playoffs Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens"},"content":{"rendered":"
Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey<\/em> break down the action with in-depth analysis. We look at key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how things might play out. For this edition, we turn our attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> hosting the Montreal Canadiens<\/a> in a winner-take-all Game 7. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as the series rolls on through the 2025\u201326 season.
\n<\/span><\/div>\n

NHL Predictions with Lightning and Canadiens<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Time:<\/strong> 6:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)<\/p>\n

How to watch: <\/strong>TNT, truTV, HBO Max, CBC, Sportsnet, TVAS<\/span><\/h3>\n

Location:<\/strong> Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL<\/p>\n

2025\u201326 First Round Series:<\/strong> Tied 3-3<\/p>\n

<\/smartframe-embed><\/p>\n

Credit Image: \u00a9 Luis Santana\/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire<\/span><\/p>\n

The Lightning downed Montreal 1-0 in Game 6 to even the best-of-seven series at 3-3, with Gage Goncalves<\/a> scoring the winner 9:03 into overtime and Andrei Vasilevskiy<\/a> earning his eighth career playoff shutout. Both teams finished the regular season tied, with Tampa Bay winning the Atlantic Division tie-breaker based on regulation wins. So they get to finish this at home, though it hasn’t been a big advantage in this series. This is the fifth playoff meeting between these two teams, with Tampa Bay winning three of the four previous series. They last met in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, which Tampa Bay won in five games. The teams split their four-game regular season series.<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tampa Bay was a strong offensive team in 2025-26, ranking fourth in the league in goals per game at 3.51. Both teams are 2.33 for this series. Their scoring depth has been the engine driving this run. Brandon Hagel<\/a> is tied with six goals for the playoff lead. Nikita Kucherov finished the regular season with 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists) in 76 games, but has struggled in this series. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a key story this series. His .9o5 save percentage has held up compared to Jakub Dobes<\/a>‘ .916. Game 6 was a reminder of his best self, and Tampa will need that version again Sunday.<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay \u2014 Keys to Victory<\/strong><\/h3>\n

NHL Predictions thinks the Lightning need Vasilevskiy to be the difference-maker once more. Montreal out-chanced Tampa in Game 6 but couldn’t solve him. Tampa must also protect the puck in the neutral zone. Montreal has generated rush chances in bunches all series, and one defensive breakdown in a Game 7 can end a season. Getting Kucherov going offensively is equally critical. He’s been more of a facilitator in this series than a finisher, and Tampa needs production from their best player. If the crowd wants Game 7 to matter at home, then they need to make believe their beach thong is too tight and scream as if it hurts.<\/p>\n

Montreal Canadiens Outlook<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In this series, Nick Suzuki has no goals, Cole Caufield has scored one goal, and after his first-game hat trick, Juraj Slafkovsky<\/a> has none. Yet, Montreal is three periods away from winning this series. This is not a team built to survive on luck. They can score on any goaltender on any night. The Canadiens and their combination of size, skating, and shot power make them a legitimate problem for Tampa’s defence. Goaltender Jakub Dobes made 32 saves in Game 6, and despite the shutout loss, he was sharp throughout, including a key stop on Kucherov after Suzuki’s turnover in overtime. Dobes’ regular-season save percentage was .901, so this series has been a proving ground for the young netminder. So far, he hasn’t blinked.<\/p>\n

Montreal Canadiens \u2014 Keys to Victory<\/strong><\/h3>\n

NHL Predictions wants to see the Canadiens convert their chances. Game 6 saw Caufield hit a post on a sizzling shot, and the Canadiens had an expected-goals total of 3.38 yet had nothing to show for it after 60 minutes. The chances are there, they just need one to go in. The power play will also be pivotal. Montreal had a golden opportunity when Kucherov’s trip put them on the man advantage 5:30 into overtime in Game 6, but Vasilevskiy denied a Lane Hutson shot and the Canadiens couldn’t convert. Physicality matters too, and Tampa began turning the puck over, fearing a bruising-fest on their aging players. Even Kucherov gave the puck away when he saw Anderson coming. That edge has to be present again from puck drop.<\/p>\n

NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Game 7 is a fitting way to end this closely contested series. \u00a0An anticipated matchup of youth versus experience that hasn’t disappointed. After both teams finished the regular season tied at 106 points, the first three games needed overtime and the next two were decided by a single goal before Game 6’s thriller. Tampa has home-ice advantage and Vasilevskiy at his peak. Montreal has the better of the play at five-on-five and a young core that refuses to panic.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Lightning 3, Canadiens 2 (OT)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prop Bets of the Night<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Disclaimer: Please check social media for the latest lineup news and betting lines before locking in your daily fantasy rosters or using these suggestions as law.<\/em><\/p>\n

Canadiens Team Prop \u2013 Over 2.5 Goals (+120)<\/strong> Montreal has out-chanced Tampa all series and is overdue for a multi-goal effort. The chances are there \u2014 eventually, they go in.<\/p>\n

Juraj Slafkovsky Anytime Scorer (+175)<\/strong> Slafkovsky led all Montreal skaters in regular-season points against Tampa Bay and has been a physical nightmare for the Lightning defenders all series long.<\/p>\n

Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the action with in-depth analysis. We look at key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how things might play out. For this edition, we turn our attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5453,"featured_media":489770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2,4547,7,4548,4524],"tags":[8285,6016,6391],"class_list":["post-490367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lightning","category-featured","category-hockey","category-canadiens","category-nhl","category-nhl-predictions","tag-2026-stanley-cup-playoffs","tag-montreal-canadiens-predictions","tag-tampa-bay-lightning-predictions"],"modified_by":"Levi Pike, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/490367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5453"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=490367"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/490367\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":490374,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/490367\/revisions\/490374"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/489770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=490367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=490367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=490367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}