{"id":490023,"date":"2026-04-28T09:07:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T13:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=490023"},"modified":"2026-04-28T09:07:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T13:07:54","slug":"nhl-predictions-game-5-ducks-vs-oilers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2026\/04\/28\/nhl-predictions-game-5-ducks-vs-oilers\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Predictions: Round 1, Game 5, 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, writers here at <em>Last Word On Hockey<\/em> take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 5 of this first round Western Conference matchup as the Edmonton Oilers host the Anaheim Ducks with Anaheim holding a 3-1 series lead.<\/p>\n<h2>NHL Predictions<\/h2>\n<h2>Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks Game 5<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Series:<\/strong> Anaheim leads 3-1<\/p>\n<p><strong>Time:<\/strong> 10:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 7:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/full-guide-for-how-to-stream-and-watch-nhl-hockey-games\/\" target=\"_self\">How to Watch<\/a> \u2013 <strong>US TV:<\/strong> TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Victory+, KCOP-13 | <strong>Canada TV:<\/strong> CBC, SN, TVAS, SN+<\/p>\n<p><strong>Location:<\/strong> Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta<\/p>\n<h2>Setting the Stage<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2026\/04\/24\/how-edmonton-oilers-can-get-connor-mcdavid-scoring-2026-stanley-cup-playoffs\/\" target=\"_self\">Edmonton Oilers return home<\/a> facing elimination after dropping three straight games in this series. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks have placed themselves firmly in control, finding multiple ways to win through four games.<\/p>\n<p>However, Game 4 was not without controversy, as the overtime winner came off a chaotic crease sequence that required video review before ultimately standing.<\/p>\n<p>This series continues to present a tension between projection and execution. <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2026\/04\/25\/edmonton-oilers-anaheim-ducks-playoffs-mid-series-recap-track-meet\/\" target=\"_self\">Anaheim has dictated pace<\/a>, leveraged depth scoring, and capitalized on special teams. Conversely, Edmonton has generated strong underlying numbers but has struggled to consistently convert those advantages into wins.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, Game 5 represents the first spot in the series where both the situation and the model align. Edmonton faces a must-win scenario, and their underlying profile still suggests a team capable of controlling play.<\/p>\n<h2>Anaheim Ducks Storylines<\/h2>\n<p>The Ducks enter <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nhl.com\/gamecenter\/ana-vs-edm\/2026\/04\/28\/2025030185\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Game 5<\/a> with confidence and a clearly repeatable formula. Anaheim continues to generate offence through depth scoring and sustained offensive pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/carlsle01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leo Carlsson<\/a> remains a central driver of that attack. His shot generation has become one of the most consistent elements of the series, creating a reliable source of offence.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/gauthcu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cutter Gauthier<\/a> continues to play an increasingly important role. His ability to generate shots and finish chances adds another dimension to Anaheim\u2019s forward group.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, Anaheim\u2019s defensive structure has limited Edmonton\u2019s ability to fully take over games. Combined with steady goaltending from <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/dostalu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lukas Dostal<\/a>, the Ducks have consistently controlled key moments.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3mkhc26cpba2q\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreibgxv4eobhts3qz7khqni2ughrhoyxzpj35ybumhzrj5cryiutq7m\">\n<p>Anaheim goal!Scored by Ryan Poehling with 17:31 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Mason McTavish.Anaheim: 4Edmonton: 3#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers  <\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/post\/3mkhc26cpba2q?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2026-04-27T05:01:01.482951Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Edmonton Oilers Storylines<\/h2>\n<p>Edmonton\u2019s path in Game 5 is straightforward. Their top players must drive results in a way that has not fully materialized across the series.<\/p>\n<p><a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mcdavco01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Connor McDavid<\/a> and <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/draisle01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leon Draisaitl<\/a> continue to produce, but the Oilers have lacked consistent support behind them. Meanwhile, Edmonton\u2019s defensive structure has broken down at key moments, allowing Anaheim to generate high-danger chances.<\/p>\n<p>However, there are signs of stabilization. <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/j\/jarrytr01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tristan Jarry<\/a> provided a more controlled performance in Game 4, giving Edmonton a baseline level of goaltending they had not consistently received earlier in the series.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the Oilers\u2019 power play remains a major regression candidate. Despite limited success so far, the talent level suggests improvement is likely, particularly in a high-leverage game environment.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3mkgyl6id6222\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreibz4jit33mrioxmdjxoa4bwgiupobihw3xe7pzu4d7z53ug6podru\">\n<p>Power play goal for Edmonton!Scored by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with 13:28 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid.Anaheim: 0Edmonton: 2#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers  <\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/post\/3mkgyl6id6222?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2026-04-27T02:11:34.427914Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>The Model<\/h2>\n<p>The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.<\/p>\n<p>The in-house model continues to favour Edmonton based on stronger finishing metrics and long-term offensive output. Meanwhile, <a  href=\"https:\/\/moneypuck.com\/preview.htm?id=2025030185\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MoneyPuck<\/a> projects the Oilers at approximately 60 percent for Game 5.<\/p>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/hockeystats.com\/games\/2025030185\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">HockeyStats<\/a> aligns with an even stronger Edmonton edge, placing the Oilers closer to 63 percent while projecting a clear scoring advantage.<\/p>\n<p>After removing market vig from the -175 range and blending all inputs, Edmonton lands between 60 and 63 percent. Fair odds project closer to -150, indicating a meaningful edge in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, this is the strongest alignment between model expectation and game context seen in this series.<\/p>\n<h2>Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions<\/h2>\n<p>Game 5 shifts the balance toward Edmonton for the first time in the series. While Anaheim has executed effectively, regression indicators and game context now point toward an Oilers response.<\/p>\n<p>However, Anaheim\u2019s ability to generate offence and control pace should still keep this game competitive. The Ducks have proven they can push Edmonton into uncomfortable situations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Prediction:<\/strong> Edmonton Oilers win 4-3 (Model Probability: ~60%)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction Record:<\/strong> 3-1<\/p>\n<h2>Prop Bets of the Night<\/h2>\n<p>We close out NHL predictions with some prop bets of the night.<\/p>\n<p>Leo Carlsson over 3.5 shots (+115) remains a consistent angle in this series. His role and shot volume continue to support this play, even as the line has adjusted upward.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots provides a strong complementary option. His usage has increased, and his ability to generate attempts fits well within Anaheim\u2019s offensive structure.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/kapanka01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-04-28_hr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kasperi Kapanen<\/a> anytime goal offers value. His role alongside top offensive players and strong underlying impact metrics position him as a high-upside scoring option.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Record:<\/strong> 8-4 (+2.21 units)<\/p>\n<p><em>All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Please bet responsibly.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Main photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 5 of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5399,"featured_media":471971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4524,20,23,4547,4548],"tags":[8285,6013,139,6017,3430,477],"class_list":["post-490023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl-predictions","category-ducks","category-oilers","category-hockey","category-nhl","tag-2026-stanley-cup-playoffs","tag-anaheim-ducks-predictions","tag-connor-mcdavid","tag-edmonton-oilers-predictions","tag-lukas-dostal","tag-tristan-jarry"],"modified_by":"Dan Mount, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/490023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5399"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=490023"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/490023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":490045,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/490023\/revisions\/490045"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/471971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=490023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=490023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=490023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}