{"id":477936,"date":"2025-11-17T07:53:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T12:53:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=477936"},"modified":"2025-11-17T07:53:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T12:53:02","slug":"nhl-predictions-november-17th-utah-mammoth-vs-anaheim-ducks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/11\/17\/nhl-predictions-november-17th-utah-mammoth-vs-anaheim-ducks\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Predictions: November 17th Utah Mammoth vs Anaheim Ducks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at <em>Last Word On Hockey<\/em> look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features the Anaheim Ducks taking on the Utah Mammoth. Don\u2019t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025\u201326 season.<\/p>\n<h2>NHL Predictions: Utah Mammoth vs Anaheim Ducks<\/h2>\n<p><strong>2025\u201326 Season Series:<\/strong> First meeting this season (2024-2025 Season Series: Mammoth 1 &#8211; 2 Ducks)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Time:<\/strong> 10:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 7:00 p.m. Pacific Standard Time (PST)<\/p>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/full-guide-for-how-to-stream-and-watch-nhl-hockey-games\/\" target=\"_self\">How to Watch Tutorial<\/a><\/h3>\n<p><strong>US TV:<\/strong> Victory+, Utah16<\/p>\n<p><strong>Canada TV:<\/strong> Sportsnet, SN360<\/p>\n<h3>Setting the Stage<\/h3>\n<p>The Anaheim Ducks (11\u20136\u20131) return home looking to halt a <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/11\/10\/revisiting-anaheim-ducks-expectations-after-their-hot-start\/\" target=\"_self\">three-game slide<\/a>. For a team that opened the season with structure, pace, and confidence, recent performances have revealed discipline problems and an alarming dip in offensive rhythm. However, Anaheim\u2019s underlying process still shows enough play-driving and finishing talent to expect a rebound. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/carlsle01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leo Carlsson<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/gauthcu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cutter Gauthier<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/kreidch01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Chris Kreider<\/a> remain the nucleus of a forward group that has scored at elite efficiency all season.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Utah Mammoth (10\u20137\u20131) arrive in a perplexing stretch. They have dropped four of their past five yet continue to grade as one of the <a  href=\"https:\/\/evolving-hockey.com\/stats\/team_standard\/?_inputs_&amp;std_tm_table=%22On-Ice%22&amp;std_tm_team=%22All%22&amp;std_tm_str=%225v5%22&amp;std_tm_adj=%22Score%20%26%20Venue%22&amp;std_tm_type=%22Rates%22&amp;std_tm_range=%22Seasons%22&amp;std_tm_span=%22Regular%22&amp;std_tm_group=%22Season%22&amp;dir_ttbl=%22Stats%22\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL\u2019s best territorial teams<\/a>. Utah controls over 56 percent of five-on-five shots and holds a 53 percent expected goals share, but their save percentage has cratered. Despite all their play-driving strength, they remain undermined by late-game collapses and unreliable goaltending. Nevertheless, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/coolelo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Logan Cooley<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/s\/schmani01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Schmaltz<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/kellecl01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Clayton Keller<\/a> headline a deep, dangerous top six that forces opponents into extended defensive sequences. Ultimately, this matchup brings together two teams whose records obscure the real story. Those stories being Utah\u2019s process exceeds its results, while Anaheim\u2019s finishing continues to mask deeper defensive issues.<\/p>\n<h3>Utah Mammoth Storyline<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/11\/11\/utah-mammoth-barrett-hayton-difficult-start-to-season\/\" target=\"_self\">Utah\u2019s recent struggles<\/a> hide how strong they\u2019ve been territorially. The Mammoth own a 56.03 percent shot share and 54.66 percent Fenwick share, both top-five leaguewide. Schmidt, Sergachev, and Marino continue to anchor a blueline that excels at suppressing volume, and their forwards thrive in transition. Cooley, Guenther, Schmaltz, and Keller all grade highly in game score stats, forming a four-player cluster capable of overwhelming matchups. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/p\/peterjo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">JJ Peterka<\/a> also provides speed-driven scoring depth on a third line that could challenge Anaheim\u2019s struggling bottom six.<\/p>\n<p>However, the issue is the crease. Utah\u2019s five-on-five save percentage sits at just 87.54 percent, fourth-worst in the league. Consecutive late-game breakdowns also undermine strong starts, including a blown lead against the Islanders two nights ago. Still, Utah owns a 53.20 percent expected goals share and consistently drives more quality than they allow. If their goaltending stabilises even slightly, their results should follow. Against Anaheim\u2019s high-danger defence, chances should be plentiful.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3m5n6vbzwb32o\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreictdldc5rqiywpy7lstfcavjw2irjgpkqjvh3zf4ag3zttdb4ib5a\">\n<p>Power play goal for Utah!Scored by Dylan Guenther with 01:25 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Mikhail Sergachev and Clayton Keller.Utah: 2New York: 1#NYIvsUTA #UtahHC #Isles<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/post\/3m5n6vbzwb32o?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2025-11-15T02:53:03.484595Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Anaheim Ducks Storyline<\/h3>\n<p>Anaheim\u2019s recent skid stems from uneven defensive play and costly penalties. The Ducks took fourteen penalty minutes in Minnesota and never established rhythm or offensive momentum. However, the model-friendly pieces remain clear. Anaheim owns a 54.02 percent goal share at five-on-five and continues to finish well above expected, posting a 10.23 percent shooting rate. Carlsson leads the team with 26 points in 18 games and ranks among the league\u2019s best in individual expected goals per sixty. Meanwhile, Gauthier and Terry continue to drive the middle of the ice, and Chris Kreider gives the top six another scoring layer.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/dostalu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lukas Dostal<\/a> projects to start tonight and remains steady at .903, outperforming Utah\u2019s crease by a meaningful margin. Even so, Anaheim\u2019s biggest flaw remains high-danger defence. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalstattrick.com\/teamtable.php\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Natural Stat Trick<\/a> ranks them 31st in high-danger expected goals against, and recent breakdowns have left their goaltenders exposed. If Anaheim is to reset tonight, it begins with discipline, structure, and faster exits, particularly against Utah\u2019s aggressive forecheck.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3m5kks3zim72u\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreifdunksjl6fcb7wqfitae3gfmqvxgsue2j4hqajorpmz7kf5mbani\">\n<p>Anaheim goal!Scored by Chris Kreider with 05:06 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Jackson LaCombe and Drew Helleson.Detroit: 2Anaheim: 2#ANAvsDET #LGRW #FlyTogether<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/post\/3m5kks3zim72u?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2025-11-14T01:48:02.114196Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>The Model<\/h3>\n<p>Our blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four independent inputs: the in-house projection, <a  href=\"https:\/\/moneypuck.com\/preview.htm?id=2025020306\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MoneyPuck<\/a>, the betting market with vig removed, and <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.advancedhockeystats.com\/projections\/games\/2025020306\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Advanced Hockey Stats<\/a>. Each source is equally weighted to provide a balanced probability view. Results are recalculated nightly to reflect updated team strengths and recent form.<\/p>\n<p>Across the simulations, Utah wins 51.8 percent of outcomes (fair odds ~\u2013107), while Anaheim wins 48.2 percent (+107). Advanced Hockey Stats favours Utah at 58 percent due to superior shot-share and expected-goal control, while MoneyPuck leans Anaheim at 52.6 percent thanks to stronger finishing and goaltending metrics. The market has tilted toward Utah since opening, reflecting confidence in their territorial superiority. However, Anaheim\u2019s elite shooters keep the projection tight. Overall, the matchup projects as a volume-versus-efficiency contrast, with Utah owning the process and Anaheim owning the finish.<\/p>\n<h3>NHL Prediction<\/h3>\n<p>Expect Utah to control early possession, but Anaheim\u2019s finishing talent and goaltending stability should keep the Ducks in favourable game states throughout the night. Furthermore, returning home after consecutive shutouts often sharpens structure under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/q\/quennjo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-16_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joel Quenneville<\/a>, and Anaheim\u2019s top line has historically bounced back quickly after low-output stretches. Utah\u2019s territorial edge is real, yet their 87.5 percent five-on-five save percentage continues to undercut otherwise strong process numbers. Meanwhile, Dostal provides Anaheim a meaningful edge in the crease, especially if the Ducks can avoid the penalty issues that plagued them in Minnesota. Ultimately, this projects as a volume-versus-efficiency clash, and Anaheim\u2019s finishers, supported by cleaner breakouts and last change, should tilt the late-game moments.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Prediction:<\/strong> Ducks win 3\u20132 (48.2% win probability)<\/p>\n<p><strong>2025\u201326 Season Prediction Record:<\/strong> 4-3<\/p>\n<h3>Prop Bets of the Night<\/h3>\n<p>We went 3 for 3 in our <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/11\/11\/nhl-predictions-november-11th-anaheim-ducks-vs-colorado-avalanche\/\" target=\"_self\">last prop bet section<\/a> and look to keep the momentum rolling. Tonight\u2019s prop card starts with a player angle that fits both the matchup and Anaheim\u2019s expected rebound: Leo Carlsson anytime goal (+200). After being shutout, Anaheim\u2019s top centre is positioned for a bounce-back performance, especially against a Utah team carrying an 87.5 percent five-on-five save percentage. Carlsson leads the Ducks in individual expected goals and has consistently driven their most dangerous sequences; returning home provides the ideal reset. The second look is Ducks team total over 2.5 goals (\u2013130). Utah\u2019s defensive structure is strong, but their goaltending instability continues to undercut it, and Anaheim\u2019s elite finishers typically convert at home even in lower-event games. Both plays align cleanly with a projected 3\u20132 Ducks victory, leaning on Anaheim\u2019s scoring talent without requiring a high-scoring environment overall.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Season Betting Record:<\/strong> 8\u20139 (+1.27 units)<\/p>\n<p><em>Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features the Anaheim Ducks taking on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5399,"featured_media":475163,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,4547,4548,4524,21],"tags":[6013,8231],"class_list":["post-477936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ducks","category-hockey","category-nhl","category-nhl-predictions","category-mammoth","tag-anaheim-ducks-predictions","tag-utah-mammoth-predictions"],"modified_by":"Levi Pike, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5399"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=477936"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":477972,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/477936\/revisions\/477972"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/475163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=477936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=477936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=477936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}