{"id":476269,"date":"2025-10-19T08:04:26","date_gmt":"2025-10-19T12:04:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=476269"},"modified":"2025-10-18T21:10:06","modified_gmt":"2025-10-19T01:10:06","slug":"nhl-prediction-october-19th-anaheim-ducks-vs-chicago-blackhawks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/10\/19\/nhl-prediction-october-19th-anaheim-ducks-vs-chicago-blackhawks\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Prediction: October 19th Anaheim Ducks vs Chicago Blackhawks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to another <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/nhl-predictions\/\" target=\"_self\">NHL Predictions<\/a>. Each day, our writers here at <em><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/\" target=\"_self\">Last Word on Hockey<\/a><\/em> look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/ducks\/\" target=\"_self\">Anaheim Ducks<\/a> taking on the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/blackhawks\/\" target=\"_self\">Chicago Blackhawks<\/a>. Don\u2019t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025\u201326 season.<\/p>\n<h2>NHL Predictions<\/h2>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nhl.com\/gamecenter\/ana-vs-chi\/2025\/10\/19\/2025020091\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Anaheim Ducks vs Chicago Blackhawks<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>2025\u201326 Season Series:<\/strong> First meeting (2024\u201325: Anaheim 2\u20131\u20130 vs Chicago)<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/full-guide-for-how-to-stream-and-watch-nhl-hockey-games\/\" target=\"_self\">How to Watch Tutorial.<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Availability<\/strong>:<br \/>\n<strong>U.S.A. TV<\/strong>: CHSN, Victory+, KCOP-13, ESPN+<br \/>\n<strong>Canada TV<\/strong>: Sportsnet<br \/>\n<strong>Time:<\/strong> 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)<\/p>\n<h3>Setting the Stage<\/h3>\n<p>The Ducks enter the night at 2\u20132\u20130 following a frustrating 4\u20131 home loss to Carolina. Despite the defeat, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/carlsle01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leo Carlsson<\/a>\u2019s continued breakout remains a bright spot, with six points over his last three games. Anaheim\u2019s offence has found life under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/q\/quennjo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joel Quenneville<\/a>, showing layers of creativity but struggling to score first. Case in point, they\u2019ve conceded the opening goal in four straight games. Meanwhile, Chicago returns home at 2\u20132\u20132 after dropping a 3\u20132 shootout to Vancouver. The Blackhawks\u2019 top six continues to evolve, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/b\/bedarco01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Connor Bedard<\/a> leading the way at a point-per-game pace and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/b\/bertuty01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tyler Bertuzzi<\/a> providing secondary spark. However, blowing a 2\u20130 lead against a travel-weary opponent raised concerns about Chicago\u2019s defensive composure late in games.<\/p>\n<h3>Anaheim Ducks Storyline<\/h3>\n<p>Anaheim\u2019s offensive rhythm has improved dramatically from last season. Quenneville\u2019s group is generating quality chances off controlled entries and net-front screens, highlighted by a strong 5v5 expected goals rate (xGF\/60 near 4.0). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mctavma01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mason McTavish<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/gauthcu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cutter Gauthier<\/a> continue to drive play, while Carlsson\u2019s vision adds another layer to the attack. However, the Ducks\u2019 special teams remain uneven. They\u2019ve struggled to convert on early power plays while allowing goals off broken coverage. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mrazepe01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Petr Mrazek<\/a> might get the start, and he will look to bounce back from a poor performance in San Jose about a week ago. The Ducks have conceded the first goal in all four games they&#8217;ve played so far, so Anaheim\u2019s focus will need to be sharper from puck drop.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:nhumwndmeeoy23aownhgcxem\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3m3ed6lqsks2n\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreihy467rdya4ouumz3rlgs3lbpgfy3lrtkdjkykoirxezhqbg3o2ia\">\n<p lang=\"en\">Leo. Carlsson. Ducks need a jolt, and get a lightning strike from the young Swede on the rush. Extremely smart play by Killorn in the neutral zone to get the stretch pass, feed Leo in space.2-1 Carolina, 9:32 P2 #FlyTogether<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:nhumwndmeeoy23aownhgcxem?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Zach Cavanagh (@zachcavsports.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:nhumwndmeeoy23aownhgcxem\/post\/3m3ed6lqsks2n?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2025-10-17T03:25:29.920Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Chicago Blackhawks Storyline<\/h3>\n<p>The Blackhawks\u2019 early-season inconsistency continues to mirror their rebuilding identity, competitive but fragile. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/knighsp01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Spencer Knight<\/a> has been solid in net with a .915 save percentage but hasn\u2019t received consistent help in front of him. Chicago\u2019s defensive structure, especially in the second period of games, has been porous. They allowed two unanswered goals to Vancouver after building a strong lead. On offence, Bedard\u2019s six points in six games underscore his steady star trajectory, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/donatry01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ryan Donato<\/a>\u2019s power play marker against the Canucks showcased improved puck movement. Yet, their late-game energy dips remain a concern heading into a matchup with a faster Anaheim side.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:pmrqkxashljkbvlumycw3aiv\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3m3buy34tyz2l\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreiaox3n2fckbkf7yeam6rghs7we72xo2olzglv54fm7euzua5akd7e\">\n<p lang=\"en\">We promise, this pass from Connor Bedard is NOT as easy as he made it look. \ud83d\udef8\ud83d\udcfa: \/NHL_On_TNT &amp; \/StreamOnMax \u27a1\ufe0f https:\/\/www.hbomax.com\/sports\/nhl<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:pmrqkxashljkbvlumycw3aiv?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL (Bot) (@notnhl.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:pmrqkxashljkbvlumycw3aiv\/post\/3m3buy34tyz2l?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2025-10-16T04:05:31.993804Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>The Model and Prediction Process<\/h3>\n<p>We combine four independent views of a game to estimate win probability. First, our in-house probabilistic model simulates the matchup 10,000 times using variabls such as team strength, recent performance, and advanced 5-on-5 metrics (expected goals for\/against, shot share). Second, we pull an external model (<a  href=\"https:\/\/moneypuck.com\/preview.htm?id=2025020091\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MoneyPuck<\/a>). Third, we convert sportsbook moneylines into implied win probabilities (after removing the bookmaker\u2019s margin). Fourth, we add a second public model built from <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.advancedhockeystats.com\/projections\/games\/2025020091\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Advanced Hockey Stats<\/a>. As you might guess, each source has its own strengths. Moreover, we learn weights from past games to emphasize the sources that have been most accurate lately. The weighted probability is then used to simulate scorelines and produce a final win chance and fair odds. After the game, we automatically log the result and update our evaluation so the blend can keep improving over time.<\/p>\n<h3>NHL Prediction<\/h3>\n<p>Our simulated 10,000-run model gives Anaheim an 80% edge on internal metrics alone, but the blended, four-source calculation lands at Anaheim with 59.8% to Chicago at 40.2%.\u00a0 The underlying tilt comes from Anaheim\u2019s superior 5v5 process. They have an xGF\/60 of 4.0 versus Chicago\u2019s 1.9, and a Corsi-share north of 63%. Quite impressive. The Ducks\u2019 forecheck and zone pressure rate rank among the top ten in the league, while Chicago still leans heavily on goaltending to bail out turnovers. Expect Anaheim\u2019s pace and shot quality to wear down the Blackhawks\u2019 middle pairings over sixty minutes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NHL Prediction:<\/strong> Ducks win 4\u20133 (59.8% win probability).<\/p>\n<p><strong>2025\u201326 Season Prediction Record<\/strong>: 2\u20131 (67%)<\/p>\n<h3>Prop Bets of the Night<\/h3>\n<p>We wrap up this NHL Prediction with two model-backed plays that align with Anaheim\u2019s expected edge. First up is Leo Carlsson and the Over 0.5 Points (-130). Carlsson has points in three straight and drives primary shot assists on the Ducks\u2019 top power play. Our simulation gives him a 64% probability to record at least one point tonight. We also are looking at Anaheim Team Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115). Across 10,000 simulations, Anaheim scored four or more in 57% of runs. Chicago\u2019s defensive metrics and late-game fatigue trends both push this toward the over. The overlap between Anaheim\u2019s puck control and Chicago\u2019s penalty-kill struggles make both props strong correlation plays.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2025\u201326 Season Betting Record:<\/strong> 4\u20133 (+0.92 units)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Main Photo Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Anaheim Ducks taking [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5399,"featured_media":476283,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,27,4547,4548,4524],"tags":[6013,6233,4756,1370,7589],"class_list":["post-476269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ducks","category-blackhawks","category-hockey","category-nhl","category-nhl-predictions","tag-anaheim-ducks-predictions","tag-chicago-blackhawks-predictions","tag-connor-bedard","tag-hockey-analytics","tag-leo-carlsson"],"modified_by":"Levi Pike, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476269","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5399"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=476269"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476269\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":476284,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476269\/revisions\/476284"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/476283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=476269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=476269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=476269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}