{"id":476019,"date":"2025-10-14T08:11:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T12:11:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=476019"},"modified":"2025-10-13T21:47:02","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T01:47:02","slug":"nhl-prediction-october-14th-pittsburgh-penguins-anaheim-ducks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/10\/14\/nhl-prediction-october-14th-pittsburgh-penguins-anaheim-ducks\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Prediction: October 14th Pittsburgh Penguins vs Anaheim Ducks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to another edition of <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/nhl-predictions\/\" target=\"_self\">NHL Predictions<\/a> from the team at <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/\" target=\"_self\">Last Word on Hockey<\/a>. Each day we break down the matchups and give you insight into projected outcomes using advanced stats and betting analysis. Tonight\u2019s interconference matchup features the Anaheim Ducks hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins.<\/p>\n<h2>NHL Predictions<\/h2>\n<h3><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nhl.com\/gamecenter\/ana-vs-pit\/2025\/10\/14\/2025020056\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pittsburgh Penguins vs Anaheim Ducks<\/a><\/h3>\n<p><strong>2025-26 Head-to-Head<\/strong>: Penguins 0 &#8211; 0 Ducks<\/p>\n<p><strong>Time:<\/strong> 7:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) (4:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time)<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/full-guide-for-how-to-stream-and-watch-nhl-hockey-games\" target=\"_self\">How to Watch<\/a> &#8211; TV<\/strong>: KTTV, Victory+, SN-PIT, ESPN+<\/p>\n<p><strong>Location:<\/strong> Honda Center in Anaheim, California<\/p>\n<h3>Matchup Overview<\/h3>\n<p>The Anaheim Ducks (1\u20131\u20130) return to Honda Center for their home opener on Monday night, hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins (2\u20131\u20130) in a clash of teams eager to build early momentum. Anaheim is fresh off a thrilling 7\u20136 overtime win in San Jose, where <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/carlsle01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leo Carlsson<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/gauthcu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cutter Gauthier<\/a> led a late rally that hinted at the club\u2019s offensive ceiling under new coach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/q\/quennjo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joel Quenneville<\/a>. Pittsburgh enters looking to rebound from a 6\u20131 home loss to the Rangers, a result that snapped their two-game winning streak and revealed some early power play inconsistencies. With both teams boasting elite top-six talent and strong underlying metrics, the spotlight turns to the goaltending matchup between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/dostalu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lukas Dostal<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/j\/jarrytr01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tristan Jarry<\/a>. Whether Anaheim can channel the energy of its first home crowd into a statement win, remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<h3>Pittsburgh Penguins Storyline<\/h3>\n<p>The Pittsburgh Penguins (2\u20131\u20130) look to rebound after a humbling 6\u20131 home loss to the New York Rangers on Saturday, a night marked by former head coach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/s\/sullimi01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mike Sullivan<\/a>\u2019s emotional return. The defeat snapped a two-game winning streak to open the season, but rookie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/kindebe01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Benjamin Kindel<\/a> provided a silver lining by scoring his first career goal, becoming the youngest Penguin to do so since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/s\/staaljo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jordan Staal<\/a> in 2007. Coach Dan Muse downplayed the loss, reminding that it\u2019s early and his group\u2019s structure will tighten with time. Veterans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/crosbsi01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sidney Crosby<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/malkiev01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evgeni Malkin<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/guentja01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jake Guentzel<\/a> were held without a point against New York, but the trio remains one of the NHL\u2019s most dangerous units when given space to operate.<\/p>\n<p>Pittsburgh\u2019s underlying play suggests a more balanced team than the scoreline indicated. The Penguins hold a 51.2% expected goals share and a 52.8% scoring chance percentage at five-on-five (via <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalstattrick.com\/teamtable.php?fromseason=20252026&amp;thruseason=20252026&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=n&amp;team=all&amp;loc=B&amp;gpf=410&amp;fd=&amp;td=\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Natural Stat Trick<\/a>), meaning they\u2019re creating slightly better looks than their opponents are on most nights. Their power play sits at 20% early, with puck movement and zone entries still a work in progress. Goalie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/j\/jarrytr01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tristan Jarry<\/a> is expected to start after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/s\/silovar01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Arturs Silovs<\/a> struggled in the loss, giving Pittsburgh the steadier half of its tandem. Despite the uneven outing against the Rangers, Muse\u2019s team has shown a strong ability to push back after losses. This is a trait that should serve them well heading into Anaheim.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3m2sjvxoa462y\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreifxuzlhobpajilgbkjnd4pkagmjgputqgibltu5yahseqn4e2fsmm\">\n<p>Pittsburgh goal!Scored by Justin Brazeau with 05:39 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Evgeni Malkin and Anthony Mantha.Pittsburgh: 4New York: 3#NYIvsPIT #LetsGoPens #Isles<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:hgs2eihs5wz2wqp647f5ox74\/post\/3m2sjvxoa462y?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2025-10-10T01:38:00.989149Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Anaheim Ducks Storyline<\/h3>\n<p>The Anaheim Ducks (1\u20131\u20130) arrive home fresh off a thrilling 7\u20136 overtime win over the San Jose Sharks, marking coach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/q\/quennjo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joel Quenneville<\/a>\u2019s first victory behind the bench. Anaheim\u2019s young core continues to show flashes of brilliance, led by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/carlsle01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Leo Carlsson<\/a>, who recorded three points including the overtime winner. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/kreidch01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Chris Kreider<\/a> tied the game with his second of the night in the final minute, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/gauthcu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cutter Gauthier<\/a> added two goals and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mctavma01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mason McTavish<\/a> chipped in three assists. The Ducks\u2019 top six combined for 13 points, giving early life to a revamped offensive structure that emphasizes aggressive puck pursuit and inside pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Underneath the scoring fireworks is a quietly strong possession game. Through two contests, Anaheim ranks near the top of the league in most even-strength shot metrics. Their 62.8% Corsi-For and 65.0% expected goals share (via Natural Stat Trick) show that their offence has controlled play far more than their record suggests. The Ducks have also generated nearly 70% of all high-danger chances, a number that reflects how frequently their young forwards are getting to prime scoring areas. Goaltending remains a question early. To that point, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mrazepe01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Petr Mrazek<\/a> allowed six goals in San Jose. In contrast, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/dostalu01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lukas Dostal<\/a> is expected to return in net and stabilize things. Anaheim\u2019s 40% power play has been one of the league\u2019s best, converting in both games and serving as a major weapon for a team still finding its defensive footing.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:pmrqkxashljkbvlumycw3aiv\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3m2xvqzjz362x\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreicju2wagl4ziqwa4voucvpgpx5qavi4xbol75i6vgqqbgziw3miim\">\n<p lang=\"en\">TOUCHDOWN \ud83c\udfc8 Leo Carlsson scores in \/Energizer overtime to give the \/AnaheimDucks the 7-6 win! #NHLFaceOff<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:pmrqkxashljkbvlumycw3aiv?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NHL (Bot) (@notnhl.bsky.social)<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:pmrqkxashljkbvlumycw3aiv\/post\/3m2xvqzjz362x?ref_src=embed\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2025-10-12T04:52:55.426456Z<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>NHL Prediction<\/h3>\n<p>When these two teams meet in Anaheim, the matchup hinges on whether Pittsburgh\u2019s structure can contain Anaheim\u2019s newfound pace. The Penguins are still running their offence through the familiar triangle of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/c\/crosbsi01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sidney Crosby<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/malkiev01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Evgeni Malkin<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/l\/letankr01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kris Letang<\/a>, but the secondary scoring from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/b\/brazeju01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Justin Brazeau<\/a> and Drew O\u2019Connor has been a pleasant surprise. On the other side, Anaheim is beginning to flash the creative, layered attack Joel Quenneville envisioned a mix of controlled entries and net-front chaos led by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mctavma01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-13_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mason McTavish<\/a> and Cutter Gauthier.<\/p>\n<p>Our blended prediction model simulates the game 100,000 times, weighting three independent sources equally:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.advancedhockeystats.com\/projections\/games\/2025020056\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Advanced Hockey Stats<\/a>: Penguins 59%, projected score 3.8\u20133.2<\/li>\n<li><a  href=\"https:\/\/moneypuck.com\/preview.htm?id=2025020056\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MoneyPuck<\/a>: Ducks 59.8%<\/li>\n<li><a  href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/pit-penguins-%40-ana-ducks\/32950322?category=odds&amp;subcategory=popular\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sportsbook implied odds<\/a>: Ducks \u2212155, Penguins +130<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>After averaging across models and running the distribution, Anaheim emerges with a 53.9% win probability, Pittsburgh at 46.1%. The most common simulated final scores cluster tightly around 4\u20133 Anaheim or 3\u20132 Anaheim, with roughly 58% of total runs finishing between five and seven goals.<\/p>\n<p>When we visualize those simulations, Anaheim\u2019s win probability curve skews slightly right. Thus meaning they\u2019re favoured, but only modestly so, and the long tail of outcomes includes plenty of tight, low-event contests driven by goaltending variance. The Ducks\u2019 power play (currently 40%) acts as the single biggest differentiator. The model projects Anaheim to win the special teams battle in 62% of runs, largely due to Pittsburgh\u2019s early-season penalty kill sitting under 80%.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, Anaheim\u2019s speed and inside pressure at home, combined with Lukas Dostal\u2019s rebound control, give them just enough edge to overcome Pittsburgh\u2019s veteran discipline. Expect a fast start from Anaheim, some late pushback from Crosby\u2019s line, and a close finish where special teams decide it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NHL Prediction<\/strong>: Ducks win 4\u20133 (54% win probability).<\/p>\n<h3>Prop bets of the night<\/h3>\n<p>We close out our NHL Prediction with prop bets of the night. We rebounded in a big way last game, cashing both props to move to 2\u20133 (\u22121.08 units) on the season. Look at the Ducks team total over 3.5 Goals (+100). In 100,000 simulated runs, the Ducks scored four or more goals in 56% of outcomes. With balanced scoring across the team, the Ducks\u2019 forward depth gives this over real bite. Also, consider Ducks power play goals 1+ (\u2212125). Through two games, Anaheim owns a 40 percent power play conversion rate and continues to funnel pucks through the bumper slot and net-front screens. Our model gives the Ducks at least one power-play goal in 64% of simulations, The combination of a red-hot top unit and a Pittsburgh PK still settling into new structure under Dan Muse makes this a strong correlation play with the team-total over.<\/p>\n<p>Both props lean on the same theme. That is, the Anaheim special teams&#8217; advantage and offensive volume are too consistent to fade. The simulations envision a game with sustained zone time, heavy shot pressure, and a Ducks side capable of converting those chances into four or more goals.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2025-2026 Season Betting Record:<\/strong> 2\u20133 (-1.08 units)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Main Photo Credit<\/strong>: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p><em>Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions; some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions from the team at Last Word on Hockey. Each day we break down the matchups and give you insight into projected outcomes using advanced stats and betting analysis. Tonight\u2019s interconference matchup features the Anaheim Ducks hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins. NHL Predictions Pittsburgh Penguins vs Anaheim Ducks 2025-26 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5399,"featured_media":461334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,4547,4548,12,4524],"tags":[6013,6123],"class_list":["post-476019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ducks","category-hockey","category-nhl","category-penguins","category-nhl-predictions","tag-anaheim-ducks-predictions","tag-pittsburgh-penguins-predictions"],"modified_by":"Levi Pike, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5399"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=476019"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476019\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":476052,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/476019\/revisions\/476052"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/461334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=476019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=476019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=476019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}