{"id":474703,"date":"2025-09-25T12:41:38","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T16:41:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=474703"},"modified":"2025-09-25T12:41:38","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T16:41:38","slug":"predicting-anaheim-duck-jackson-lacombes-stat-line-for-2025-26-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/09\/25\/predicting-anaheim-duck-jackson-lacombes-stat-line-for-2025-26-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting Anaheim Duck Jackson LaCombe’s Stat Line for 2025-26 Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Few stories in Anaheim<\/a> last season were more surprising than Jackson LaCombe<\/a>\u2019s breakout. The 24-year-old logged heavy minutes, produced 43 points, and quietly became one of the Ducks\u2019 most reliable players. The question now is whether he can take another step and develop into the bona fidetop defenceman the franchise has lacked since Scott Niedermayer<\/a>\u2019s retirement.<\/p>\n

This year, we project LaCombe\u2019s full stat line using a blend of usage rates, expected-goals models, and a 10,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. The results not only suggest another strong season but also hint at his growing importance in Anaheim\u2019s rebuild.<\/p>\n

Jackson LaCombe Point Projection for 2025\u201326<\/h2>\n

Usage and Role Driving Production<\/h3>\n

LaCombe\u2019s ice time is already that of a top-pair defender. In 2024\u201325, he averaged 22:18 per night, with just over two minutes of power-play usage. His combination of puck retrievals, exits, and offensive zone entries meant he wasn\u2019t just logging minutes \u2014 he was driving play.<\/p>\n

We expect him to hold similar usage in 2025\u201326, hovering around 22\u201323 minutes. Anaheim\u2019s defence core remains unsettled, and while Radko Gudas<\/a> provided muscle beside him last year, LaCombe increasingly became the one tilting the ice in transition. With Olen Zellweger<\/a> and Pavel Mintyukov<\/a> still adjusting to full-time NHL roles, LaCombe\u2019s workload is secure.<\/p>\n

\n

Fun little Jackson LaCombe escape sequence to open the third period#FlyTogether<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/ttM4RoivXJ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Patrick Present (@PatrickCPresent) September 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Translating the Underlying Numbers<\/h3>\n

Last season, LaCombe scored 14 goals on 134 shots, good for a shooting percentage just over 10.4%. That is slightly high for a defenceman, so our model regressed it closer to 9\u201310%. However, his shot volume should rise with stable top-pair minutes and more offensive-zone touches. We also baked in Anaheim\u2019s improved power-play structure under Jay Woodcroft, though we kept his projection realistic with continued second-unit deployment.<\/p>\n

On the defensive side, LaCombe contributed 129 blocks and 69 hits. Both rates are sustainable given his usage and style, which leans on positioning and stick work rather than pure physicality. Models from Evolving Hockey and HockeyStatCards grade him as a net-positive offensive driver and a roughly neutral defender \u2014 an unusual mix for a 24-year-old in just his second full NHL season.<\/p>\n

The Projection: 2025\u201326<\/h3>\n

Here is where our simulation landed for an 80-game season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Stat<\/th>\nProjection<\/th>\n95% CI<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Goals<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n9 \u2013 17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Assists<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n28 \u2013 37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Points<\/td>\n46<\/strong><\/td>\n38 \u2013 54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Plus\/Minus<\/td>\n+1<\/td>\n\u22127 to +7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Power-Play Points<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n8 \u2013 15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Short-Handed Points<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0 \u2013 2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shots on Goal<\/td>\n150<\/td>\n130 \u2013 170<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hits<\/td>\n72<\/td>\n55 \u2013 85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Blocks<\/td>\n140<\/td>\n120 \u2013 160<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Penalty Minutes<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n22 \u2013 40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average TOI<\/td>\n22:30<\/td>\n21:30 \u2013 23:30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

These numbers suggest LaCombe should again be a fantasy-relevant blue-liner. His point total projects in the mid-40s, with steady secondary categories in hits and blocks. The confidence intervals show a floor in the high 30s for points and a ceiling just over 50.<\/p>\n

\n

Fun little Jackson LaCombe escape sequence to open the third period#FlyTogether<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/ttM4RoivXJ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Patrick Present (@PatrickCPresent) September 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Contract Context: The Bargain Year<\/h3>\n

One major wrinkle this projection could impact is LaCombe\u2019s contract. He enters the final season of a two-year deal worth just $925,000 per year. According to The Athletic\u2019s<\/a> market valuation models, his play last season carried a market value of $7.2 million, creating roughly $6.3 million in surplus value. That is the kind of efficiency teams build contenders on.<\/p>\n

The Ducks<\/a> are well-positioned with over $20 million in projected 2025\u201326 cap space, but LaCombe\u2019s next deal looms large. If he delivers another 45\u201350 point season while playing top-pair minutes, he\u2019ll have the leverage to command a true top-defenceman contract as an RFA<\/a> in 2026.<\/p>\n

Could He Be a No. 1 Defenceman?<\/h3>\n

So, is LaCombe already Anaheim\u2019s top d-man? By league standards<\/a>, not yet. Across the NHL, top defencemen carry an average net rating around +8.4. LaCombe\u2019s forecast sits closer to +4.2 \u2014 strong, but below elite. However, his offensive driving, steady defensive improvement, and sheer workload suggest he\u2019s closing the gap.<\/p>\n

If he improves on the power play and maintains his transition dominance, this season could be his stepping stone into that conversation. For Anaheim, that development would be transformational, turning a second-round pick into the type of cornerstone every franchise covets.<\/p>\n

Final Word<\/h3>\n

Jackson LaCombe\u2019s 2025\u201326 point projection points to another strong year: mid-40s in scoring, heavy minutes, and reliable secondary stats. More importantly, it underscores how valuable he has become on his entry-level contract. This may be his last season as a bargain before the Ducks have to pay up.<\/p>\n

Anaheim\u2019s blue line is still searching for its identity. If LaCombe takes the next step, the search for a true top defenceman may already be over.<\/p>\n

Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez- Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Few stories in Anaheim last season were more surprising than Jackson LaCombe\u2019s breakout. The 24-year-old logged heavy minutes, produced 43 points, and quietly became one of the Ducks\u2019 most reliable players. The question now is whether he can take another step and develop into the bona fidetop defenceman the franchise has lacked since Scott Niedermayer\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5399,"featured_media":463920,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,2498,4547,4548,4524],"tags":[7524,1370,7925,4125],"class_list":["post-474703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ducks","category-fantasy-hockey","category-hockey","category-nhl","category-nhl-predictions","tag-anaheim-ducks-analysis","tag-hockey-analytics","tag-hockey-microstats","tag-jackson-lacombe"],"modified_by":"Andrew Willis","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5399"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=474703"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":474734,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474703\/revisions\/474734"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/463920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=474703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=474703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=474703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}