{"id":473777,"date":"2025-09-05T08:22:45","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T12:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=473777"},"modified":"2025-09-03T20:23:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T00:23:14","slug":"evgeni-malkin-point-projection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/09\/05\/evgeni-malkin-point-projection\/","title":{"rendered":"Pittsburgh Penguin Evgeni Malkin’s Point Projection for 2025-26"},"content":{"rendered":"

September brings the start of fantasy hockey season. We have already covered a few Penguins<\/a>, including Sidney Crosby<\/a> and others, and this article looks at Evgeni Malkin<\/a> and his point projection for the 2025-26 season. The longtime Pittsburgh Penguins<\/a> star has battled durability concerns throughout his career. However, when he is healthy continues to produce at a strong clip when in the lineup. As the Penguins enter 2025-26, Malkin remains central to the team\u2019s offence, especially on the power play. However, his age raises natural questions about sustainability.<\/p>\n

Age Curve and Team Context<\/h3>\n

At 39 years old, Malkin is firmly in the twilight of his career. This season may be his last in the league, but that is still unknown. As such, production typically tapes off heavily by this point. Our model accounts for this with a 0.87 age modifier, representing a 13% dip compared to peak scoring. Although harsh, this factors in expected regression as very few forwards can maintain prime-output levels this late into their careers. On key exception to this rule, might just be Crosby in fact.<\/p>\n

The Penguins environment provides both help and hinderance. The organization has slipped at even strength scoring, scoring just 2.95 goals-per-game in 2024-25. This is a shade under the league average of 3.01. Crucially, the team\u2019s 25.8% power play was one of the NHL\u2019s better units, ensuring high-end opportunities for players getting ice-time on the man advantage. Because this model weighs team factors at 70% even strength and 30% power play, the result is a Team Index of 1.04. This is a small yet important lift that helps offset some of Malkin\u2019s age decline.<\/p>\n

Games Played<\/h3>\n

Availability has long been a significant variable in Malkin\u2019s fantasy value. When Malkin is on, he\u2019s one of the best in the world. In contrast, he\u2019s dealt with many different injuries throughout his career. To balance his individual history with league-wide norms, the model uses a three-year weighted average for games played, then weights that figure along with a baseline of 69 GP. This baseline represents the mean for skaters that appeared in at least 41 games last season.<\/p>\n