{"id":473545,"date":"2025-09-02T08:33:01","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T12:33:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=473545"},"modified":"2025-08-27T20:53:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T00:53:08","slug":"pittsburgh-penguins-sidney-crosby-point-projection-2025-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/09\/02\/pittsburgh-penguins-sidney-crosby-point-projection-2025-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Pittsburgh Penguin Sidney Crosby’s Point Projection for the 2025-26 Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

September brings the start of training camp and fantasy hockey. This article helps predict Sidney Crosby<\/a>‘s point projection for this upcoming year. The Pittsburgh Penguins<\/a> are a team that\u2019s heading into the season expecting a low finish in the standings. That being said, the organization still possesses numerous offensive weapons capable of providing fantastic value for fantasy hockey owners. The first of our articles projecting the point totals for the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2025-26 season is Captain Sidney Crosby. Crosby, 38 years old, scored 33 goals and 91 points last season over 80 games played.<\/p>\n

Sid Still Gets It Done<\/h3>\n

Our formula being used to project his points and points-per-game this coming season will focus on a few main factors. Moreover, the formula will use a weighted points-per-game, expected games played, age-adjusted and team-adjusted scoring factors, and a breakdown of even-strength versus power play production. To test the formula, Crosby\u2019s totals from 2021-2024 were used to project last season, for 2024-25. The model predicted an expected value of 86 points, whereas Crosby’s actual total was 91, just a 6% difference.<\/p>\n

Age Curve and Team Context<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Age and team environment are the first adjustments the model applies to establish a baseline. At 38-years-old, Crosby now falls under a 0.89 age modifier, translating to an 11% decline from prime production levels. This represents a regression of about 1% per year through the early 30s.<\/p>\n

Team context also matters. Pittsburgh no longer drives offence at even strength to the degree they did during their Stanley Cup contention years. However, their power play remains one of the league\u2019s best. In 2024-25, the Penguins averaged 2.95 goals-per-game (slightly below the 3.01 league average). However, they posted a 25.8% powerplay rate (well above the league\u2019s 21.6% average). The model weights team environment 70% at even strength, 30% on the power play, producing a Team Index of 1.04. Together these factors will help frame how Crosby\u2019s raw scoring history will later be adjusted. Aging pulls him down slightly, but Pittsburgh\u2019s strong power play combats against a negative linear regression.<\/p>\n

Games Played<\/strong><\/h3>\n

It\u2019s important to project durability to know how likely a player is to hit a certain number of points. A points-per-game rate only goes so far as the player is available to play. The model once again applies a weighted three-year average.<\/p>\n

However, we take a baseline for the number of games played as 69 games. This baseline represents the league-wide mean games played for skaters who appeared in at least 41 games over the past three seasons.<\/p>\n

In this system, 70% of the projection comes from a player\u2019s own three-year weighted GP, while the other 30% is drawn toward the 69-game baseline. This regression prevents the model from being skewed by one-off injuries or by assuming every player can hit a perfect 82. It ensures the projection reflects the reality of NHL availability, where the \u201ctypical<\/em>\u201d regular skater averages closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s.<\/p>\n

For Sidney Crosby, the input is as follows:<\/p>\n