{"id":472887,"date":"2025-07-28T08:27:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T12:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=472887"},"modified":"2025-07-28T04:44:53","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T08:44:53","slug":"key-off-season-decision-remains-for-2025-26-anaheim-ducks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/07\/28\/key-off-season-decision-remains-for-2025-26-anaheim-ducks\/","title":{"rendered":"A Key Off-Season Decision for the Anaheim Ducks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the long days of summer and the offseason for the NHL, but tensions are rising in Anaheim. There is a lot of chatter circling around Mason McTavish&#8217;s contract situation and what the Ducks are going to do. The Anaheim Ducks face a pivotal decision on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mctavma01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mason McTavish<\/a> contract. Here&#8217;s a data-backed look at how they should approach it.<\/p>\n<h2>What the Ducks Should Do About the Mason McTavish Contract<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"728\" data-end=\"1112\">McTavish\u2019s entry-level contract expired after the 2024\u201325 season, making him a restricted free agent (RFA) at age 22. The Ducks control his rights and have significant cap space, meaning only an offer sheet with a cap hit above $7.02 million could even tempt the Ducks. Anaheim is well-positioned to match it anyway (via<a  href=\"https:\/\/puckpedia.com\/offer-sheet-tracker\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> PuckPedia<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1114\" data-end=\"1434\">The reality is, despite speculation, general manager\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/v\/verbepa01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pat Verbeek<\/a> isn\u2019t going to trade McTavish, and no fan-proposed trade has come close to justifying that kind of move. The key question, then, isn\u2019t whether McTavish stays. It\u2019s what kind of contract structure makes the most sense, both in dollars and term.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1441\" data-end=\"1478\">McTavish\u2019s Value by the Numbers<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1479\" data-end=\"1745\">McTavish finished 2024\u201325 with <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nhl.com\/ducks\/player\/mason-mctavish-8482745\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">52 points in 76 games,<\/a> a 0.68 point-per-game clip. Also, he served as Anaheim\u2019s <a  href=\"https:\/\/puckpedia.com\/player\/mason-mctavish\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">third-line centre<\/a>. While that placement undersells his impact, and he will surely see a promotion in 2025-2026, McTavish\u2019s offensive production was strong across multiple advanced metrics:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1746\" data-end=\"1931\">\n<li data-start=\"1746\" data-end=\"1778\">\n<p data-start=\"1748\" data-end=\"1778\"><strong data-start=\"1748\" data-end=\"1776\">Even-strength Points\/60 mins: 2.16<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1779\" data-end=\"1832\">\n<p data-start=\"1781\" data-end=\"1832\"><strong data-start=\"1781\" data-end=\"1812\">Expected goals (ixG): 25.35<\/strong>, actual goals: 22<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1833\" data-end=\"1931\">\n<p data-start=\"1835\" data-end=\"1931\"><strong data-start=\"1835\" data-end=\"1861\">Offensive Rating: +7.0<\/strong>, 79th percentile (via<a  href=\"https:\/\/www.hockeystatcards.com\/skater?id=8482745\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> HockeyStatCards<\/a>)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1933\" data-end=\"2299\">Yet his two-way play is a major sticking point. He posted a defensive rating of -5.5, among the worst on the team, driven by poor shot suppression and heavy expected goals against. His Corsi For % (CF%) was just 45.2% and DFF% sat below 45%, further emphasizing his struggles without the puck.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2306\" data-end=\"2348\">The Offer Sheet Threat Is Overstated<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2349\" data-end=\"2730\"><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6493853\/2025\/07\/15\/nhl-offseason-notebook\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Athletic\u2019s Shayna Goldman<\/a> laid out the case for McTavish as a potential offer sheet candidate. However, she also acknowledged that Anaheim has the cap flexibility to match any realistic offer, and that no team is likely to go so high as to trigger a four-first-round pick compensation threshold.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2732\" data-end=\"3025\">With Anaheim\u2019s pipeline already stocked and the Zegras trade signaling a shift toward building around McTavish and Carlsson, the Ducks simply don\u2019t need more futures. They need impact now. A $7 million offer sheet wouldn\u2019t scare Verbeek, it would just force his hand.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3032\" data-end=\"3080\">What the Analytics Say About Term and Risk<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3081\" data-end=\"3429\">According to <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6048288\/2025\/03\/09\/nhl-player-cards-pacific\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Athletic&#8217;s contract mode<\/a><a class=\"cursor-pointer\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"3094\" data-end=\"3157\">l<\/a>, McTavish\u2019s projected contract value is $8.5M average annual value, though his market value is closer to $6.8M. That creates a modest surplus risk if Anaheim were to commit long-term, especially since McTavish has just a 28% chance of delivering positive contract value.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3431\" data-end=\"3792\">His net rating trajectory peaks in the +2.5 range (strong second-line territory) and begins declining as he approaches age 28. His closest player comps, names like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/d\/domima01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Max Domi<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/m\/mitteca01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Casey Mittelstadt<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/s\/stromdy01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dylan Strome,<\/a>\u00a0hint at a player who can contribute meaningfully but likely won\u2019t become elite.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3794\" data-end=\"4077\">This is exactly why a bridge deal makes sense. A two-year contract would keep McTavish an RFA when it expires. Thus, giving Anaheim time to evaluate further growth while preserving future control. It also prevents Verbeek from overpaying for development that hasn\u2019t fully arrived yet.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4084\" data-end=\"4126\">Supporting Cast Will Help Evaluation<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4127\" data-end=\"4429\"><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6496153\/2025\/07\/16\/nhl-most-improved-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dom Luszczyszyn<\/a> of <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4146\" data-end=\"4244\">The Athletic<\/a> ranks Anaheim as one of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/07\/17\/anaheim-ducks-re-sign-rising-star-goaltender\/\" target=\"_self\">NHL\u2019s most improved teams<\/a> this summer. This assertion is in part because of their additions of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/k\/kreidch01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Chris Kreider<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/granlmi01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mikael Granlund<\/a>, and head coach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/q\/quennjo01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-07-27_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joel Quenneville<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4431\" data-end=\"4711\">These upgrades should help McTavish significantly. Better wingers and a tactically elite bench boss could create the environment needed for a breakout. If McTavish flourishes under Quenneville, then Anaheim can revisit a long-term extension from a position of evidence, not hope. The Quenneville hire, while controversial at best, is certainly generating buzz about players wanting to play for the three-time Stanley Cup champion.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4718\" data-end=\"4744\">Recommendation<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4745\" data-end=\"5115\">The smart bet for Anaheim is a two-year bridge contract around $7 million AAV. This strikes the right balance between rewarding McTavish\u2019s production and mitigating long-term risk, especially given his below-average defensive value and modest comparable contracts. It also keeps him an RFA at expiry, giving the Ducks leverage and flexibility heading into his true prime.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5117\" data-end=\"5281\">Verbeek isn\u2019t rushing this, and they shouldn&#8217;t he. But make no mistake, Anaheim isn\u2019t letting McTavish walk, and the next contract will reflect that calculated confidence.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5117\" data-end=\"5281\">Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the long days of summer and the offseason for the NHL, but tensions are rising in Anaheim. There is a lot of chatter circling around Mason McTavish&#8217;s contract situation and what the Ducks are going to do. The Anaheim Ducks face a pivotal decision on the Mason McTavish contract. Here&#8217;s a data-backed look at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5399,"featured_media":465991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[20,4547,4548],"tags":[5986,6752],"class_list":["post-472887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ducks","category-hockey","category-nhl","tag-anaheim-ducks-roster","tag-mason-mctavish"],"modified_by":"Levi Pike, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5399"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=472887"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472887\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":472900,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472887\/revisions\/472900"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/465991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=472887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=472887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=472887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}