{"id":460057,"date":"2025-01-04T10:15:23","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T15:15:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=460057"},"modified":"2025-01-05T09:03:23","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T14:03:23","slug":"anaheim-ducks-star-rfa-performance-and-contract-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2025\/01\/04\/anaheim-ducks-star-rfa-performance-and-contract-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Anaheim Ducks Star RFA Performance and Contract Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analyzing Anaheim Ducks’ star RFA Mason McTavish<\/a>‘s performance, potential, and contract outlook as the team looks at future salary cap.<\/p>\n

As the Anaheim Ducks continue their rebuilding journey<\/a>, Mason McTavish finds himself at the heart of a pivotal decision. The Anaheim Ducks star RFA’s entry-level contract is nearing its expiration, but McTavish has emerged as a cornerstone of the team\u2019s future. Pat Verbeek and the Ducks\u2019 front office now face the challenge of balancing the young forward\u2019s undeniable potential with the realities of his current performance. What follows is a closer look at McTavish\u2019s value, his role on the Ducks, and how Anaheim should approach these crucial negotiations.<\/p>\n

McTavish\u2019s 2024-25 Campaign<\/h2>\n

Selected third overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, McTavish joined the Ducks as one of the most highly regarded prospects in recent memory. As a Ducks\u2019 first-round pick, his development has been a central focus for Anaheim\u2019s rebuild.<\/p>\n

Mason McTavish’s season has been defined by flashes of brilliance and the challenges of a rebuilding team. Known for his hockey IQ, grit, and versatility, McTavish has taken on significant responsibility in both offensive and defensive situations. However, as of January, his stats reflect his limited contributions.<\/p>\n

Goals and Assists<\/strong>: 5 goals and 11 assists<\/p>\n

Time on Ice (TOI)<\/strong>: 16:25<\/p>\n

Net Rating<\/strong>: -2.5<\/p>\n

Wins Contributed<\/strong>: 4.5 \u00d7 0.1657 = 0.7457 wins (approximately 0.75 wins)<\/p>\n

To contextualize his performance, a replacement-level player typically has a net rating<\/a> of -7, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. McTavish, with a net rating of -2.5, is 4.5 points above replacement level. Each net rating point is worth 0.1657 wins, translating to 0.75 wins above replacement this season. However, this represents a decline from the 2023-24 season, when McTavish ended the year with a net rating of 0<\/a> and contributed approximately 1.16 wins above replacement. This difference highlights the growing pains both McTavish and the Ducks are enduring this season.<\/p>\n

Given that each win is valued at $3.3 million for forwards<\/a>, McTavish\u2019s performance this season is worth approximately $2.46 million. In contrast, his value at the end of last season was approximately $3.83 million, meaning it could have been more advantageous for McTavish to strike a deal before this season began.<\/p>\n

McTavish\u2019s Career Stats<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Season<\/th>\nGP<\/th>\nG<\/th>\nA<\/th>\nP<\/th>\n+\/-<\/th>\nPIM<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
2021-22<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n+3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2022-23<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n43<\/td>\n-19<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2023-24<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n-23<\/td>\n86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2024-25<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n-4<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Career<\/strong><\/td>\n184<\/td>\n43<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n104<\/td>\n-43<\/td>\n152<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The Ducks\u2019 Dilemma: Rewarding Potential or Paying for Performance?<\/h3>\n

The case for paying McTavish above his current market value lies in his potential, pedigree, and projected growth. As a third overall pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, McTavish carries the promise of becoming an elite NHL forward. Comparable contracts for players like Nick Suzuki<\/a> and Matty Beniers highlight the league\u2019s tendency to reward high draft picks with substantial deals, recognizing their value beyond current performance metrics.<\/p>\n

Moreover, McTavish is entering his prime and is expected to thrive as the Ducks emerge from their rebuild. As Anaheim\u2019s roster strengthens, McTavish\u2019s numbers are likely to improve, further justifying an investment in his future. Paying for his potential now ensures the Ducks secure a foundational piece for years to come.<\/p>\n

The Ducks are in the midst of crafting their next competitive core, with McTavish positioned as a foundational piece. Playing alongside stars like Trevor Zegras<\/a> and Leo Carlsson<\/a>, McTavish has embraced challenging matchups, showcasing his adaptability and leadership potential. However, his current metrics suggest Anaheim should approach contract negotiations with measured optimism.<\/p>\n

Comparable Contracts<\/h3>\n

Nick Suzuki<\/a> (Montreal Canadiens)<\/strong>: An eight-year, $63 million deal with a $7.875 million AAV. Suzuki\u2019s leadership role and two-way play set a benchmark for young centres.<\/p>\n

Matty Beniers<\/a> (Seattle Kraken<\/strong>): A seven-year, $49,999,999 contract with a $7,142,857 cap hit. Signed in August 2024, Beniers\u2019 deal rewards his offensive upside and future potential. Beniers was also drafted one spot ahead of McTavish.<\/p>\n

Trevor Zegras<\/a> (Anaheim Ducks<\/strong>): A three-year, $17.25 million deal with a $5.75 million cap hit. Zegras\u2019 shorter-term contract provides flexibility while allowing him to prove his ceiling.<\/p>\n