{"id":458077,"date":"2024-12-09T16:35:39","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T21:35:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=458077"},"modified":"2024-12-09T16:35:39","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T21:35:39","slug":"three-observations-during-the-carolina-hurricanes-latest-slump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2024\/12\/09\/three-observations-during-the-carolina-hurricanes-latest-slump\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Observations During the Carolina Hurricanes Latest Slump"},"content":{"rendered":"

The highs and lows of an 82-game NHL season usually hit every single team. It truly is a rollercoaster of emotions for fans, players, coaches, sports betters and team management. The balance of expectations versus results plays a huge role in this ride as well. For the Carolina Hurricanes, they have been riding pretty high most of the year. But now the Hurricanes have struggled a bit for results and fans are wondering what’s going on. As Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> head coach Jon Cooper recently described<\/a> about maturing as a coach, it is important to look at the big picture versus getting stuck in the emotions of a game here or there. So, let’s take a look at three observations during the Hurricanes latest slump.<\/p>\n

The Hurricanes Intensity Drops to a Tropical Storm<\/h2>\n

Coming in with lowered expectations<\/a> this season, the Hurricanes got to their game pretty quickly. They strung together an eight-game winning streak and up until their loss to the New Jersey Devils<\/a> on November 21, had put together a record of 14-4-0. Since then, they have a record of 17-9-1. This includes a run of 4-5-1 in their last ten.<\/p>\n

There were some notable games showcasing the lows of the Hurricanes season. One includes giving up a tying goal in the final minute against Columbus<\/a> and losing in a shootout, while also losing Pyotr Kochetkov<\/a> to injury in an overtime that should have been avoided. Another is their loss to the Seattle Kraken<\/a> where they uncharacteristically failed to generate much in the shot department. And then their last game against the New York Islanders<\/a> showcased one period they slept on that caused the loss. They are still in an alright spot with a winning record, but there are a few standout items during this run of Hurricanes struggles.<\/p>\n

1. The Lines….Oh the Lines<\/h3>\n

Hurricanes fans, especially while the team struggles, are quick to point out frustrations with Rod Brind’Amour<\/a>‘s constant line shuffling when things aren’t working. Sometimes the new combinations are truly head-scratchers. Sometimes those head-scratchers work. Other times, not so much. And sometimes there just aren’t good fits. The question of whether to stick with a line that is struggling when it showed success before or maybe for how long, is one that doesn’t fit neatly into a mathematical formula. It is a judgment call. But looking big picture, sometimes previous results with plenty of sample size might be the ones to go with. Especially if the “issues” are beyond line combinations (see the third point below).<\/p>\n

Look for Consistency Over Sporadic Results<\/h4>\n

What I am getting at here is over this losing span, the lines have been in a blender until there is a win. But if the lines keep changing and results aren’t really adjusting, is there any difference between mixing the lines and letting those lines play through the struggles? It’s one thing to tinker during a game that isn’t working. It’s another to switch from game to game. But here’s an example. The line of Eric Robinson<\/a>, Jesperi Kotkaniemi<\/a> and Martin Necas<\/a> has arguably been the best forward line for Carolina this year (for lines playing 30 minutes or more together). With a 62.5% goals percentage, a team-best 15 goals for and 6.48 goals for per 60 minutes, and a second-best expected goals for of 7.8, this line may actually be Carolina’s most offensively productive<\/a> this year. But after the loss against the Devils, this line has seen little to no time together.<\/p>\n

Second-Line Centre Again<\/h4>\n

Beyond this, the team still has a major need for a second-line centre. In goals, the one through four ranking of centres this year would be Sebastian Aho<\/a> (seven), Kotkaniemi (four), Jordan Staal<\/a> (three), and then Jack Drury<\/a> (three). Looking at it the same way for points, it’s Aho (29), Kotkaniemi (14), Staal (nine), and then Drury (nine). In both categories offensively, that would be the one through four centres. Maybe giving that a try again isn’t the worst idea? Absent a trade or maybe trying a call-up (perhaps Ryan Suzuki), these are the centres have for now so one of them has to step up to fill that role.<\/p>\n

Go Top Heavy? Maybe for Just a Bit<\/h4>\n

And then to lastly go a little off the board, there’s also the possibility of trying the team’s best offensive players together and letting Seth Jarvis<\/a>, Aho and Necas take some time on the first line. This hasn’t been tried yet and would give each line more of a true identity than a somewhat hybrid\/balanced approach. Maybe this is one of those temporary in-game adjustments to try. But it might be worth a look.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, the team may benefit best by letting the lines continue to gel. Again, we are talking big picture here for the whole season (and hopefully post-season).<\/p>\n

2. Defence Wins Championships<\/h3>\n

Since Brind’Amour took over, the Hurricanes have been the poster child for team defence. Their ability to limit shots against, heavily control possession time, and stand-up breakouts and transition chances at the blue line have all been pieces to their defensive scheme. But during the Hurricanes latest struggles? Things have not worked so well defensively. In their last nine games, the Hurricanes have allowed three or more goals against. Fortunately, they have been pretty decent at likewise putting the puck in the net or things would be much worse. But what’s going here?<\/p>\n

Hurricanes Goaltending Struggles<\/h4>\n

For one, yes both of their starting goalies have had injuries. For a stretch, the Hurricanes relied on Spencer Martin<\/a> to be the starter. Martin does well for the role he has on the team. That is a number three goalie who can step in when needed for a game here or there. But to carry a full load in Kochetkov’s absence? That was beyond his pay grade. This shows how important the position is. Will the team make a move in net this season (beyond signing Dustin Tokarski<\/a>)? Probably not. But depending on Frederik Andersen<\/a>‘s status, they may need to.<\/p>\n

What the Stats Say<\/h4>\n

It’s also not just the goalie that has been struggling, however. The team has routinely been giving up odd-man rushes and easier chances against than normal due to mishaps and mental mistakes. There’s no other way to put it than the team just looks off. But statistically, there is an interesting story.\u00a0 At 5v5<\/a>, the team is not giving up the most high-danger chances in the league during that span. Nor are they all of sudden falling at the bottom of the league when it comes to stats like expected goals percentage, Corsi, or Fenwick.<\/p>\n

So where are they at the bottom? The answer is save percentage (85%) and PDO (.920).\u00a0 Their shooting percentage and high-danger goals against isn’t far from the bottom either. What this appears to indicate is not that they are all of a sudden giving up too many shots, nor are they all of a sudden giving up too many high-danger chances per se. But what it might mean is two-fold. One, they probably aren’t getting the goaltending they need. And two, the high danger chances they are giving up are REALLY high danger. Beyond the goalies settling in, the third observation below might be the best answer to this problem.<\/p>\n

Defensive Pairs<\/h4>\n

There is however one other possibility that has not been mentioned much. While most are focused on the forward lines, the defensive pairs<\/a> have essentially remained unchanged all year. For the most part, it has worked fine. And like mentioned above, moving players around might not be the best choice always. But looking at the main pairs, only Dmitry Orlov<\/a> and Jalen Chatfield<\/a> have a positive goals percentage at 64.9%. Sean Walker<\/a> and Shayne Gostisbehere<\/a> are 44.8% while Jaccob Slavin<\/a> and Brent Burns<\/a> are at 46.2%. Slavin might be needed to cover for Burns at this point, but moving one of Gostisbehere or Walker (probably Gostisbehere) with Slavin might be worth at least a thought.<\/p>\n

3. Stick to the Plan….is it that Simple?<\/h3>\n

The last observation that might be the actual answer to all of the issues mentioned above is actually very simple. It’s that the team has gotten away from their game at 5v5. This happens from time to time to many teams. There doesn’t always seem to be a rhyme or reason as to why or how. But it does. It is all humans so you cannot reduce causation and results to numbers and formulas. But that seems to be where the Hurricanes are during these latest struggles.<\/p>\n

There are many examples that show this. One is the extreme lack of shooting against the Kraken. Another is the second-period meltdown against the Islanders. During that period, the hurricanes were outscored 4-1. The final score was 4-3. They also only managed a pair of shots. But the list goes on.<\/p>\n

A Well-Oiled Machine<\/h4>\n

This team needs a full 60-minute effort with no passengers to be at their game. This is true for any team, but for the way this team is coached and their system works, it requires no weak links. Every once in a while, a player or two can steal a game, but that is not the norm for this team. The Hurricanes also need to minimize the costly turnovers and mental mistakes. Sometimes when teams get off their game, they try to force things and play outside their norm. For example, in that second period against the Islanders, it was the Islanders working the forecheck and breaking out easily. Carolina was just hoping to get the puck out and take a rush chance. But that never worked.<\/p>\n

The Simple Truth<\/h4>\n

The team needs to get back to doing what they do best. A heavy forecheck, generating shots and holding possession, stopping the opposition at the blue line, and clearing out the front of the net. Not to mention, winning 50\/50 battles which is another item that has been missing over this span. This is Brind’Amour hockey and when the team follows, it does tend to work. But the team needs everyone going. It is almost too simple, but it’s probably why the items above all seem to simply rely on this final one. A simple key with a not-so-simple route to achieve.<\/p>\n

Main Photo: James Guillory-Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The highs and lows of an 82-game NHL season usually hit every single team. It truly is a rollercoaster of emotions for fans, players, coaches, sports betters and team management. The balance of expectations versus results plays a huge role in this ride as well. For the Carolina Hurricanes, they have been riding pretty high […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4428,"featured_media":458109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2,4547,4548],"tags":[7297,4622,2712,944,2286,705],"class_list":["post-458077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hurricanes","category-featured","category-hockey","category-nhl","tag-carolina-hurricanes-analysis","tag-eric-robinson","tag-jesperi-kotkaniemi","tag-martin-necas","tag-rod-brindamour","tag-sebastian-aho"],"modified_by":"Dan Mount, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4428"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=458077"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458077\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":458141,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458077\/revisions\/458141"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/458109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=458077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=458077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=458077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}