{"id":432513,"date":"2023-10-04T08:30:51","date_gmt":"2023-10-04T12:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=432513"},"modified":"2023-10-03T14:45:21","modified_gmt":"2023-10-03T18:45:21","slug":"how-tampa-bay-success-jonas-johansson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2023\/10\/04\/how-tampa-bay-success-jonas-johansson\/","title":{"rendered":"How Tampa Bay Could Find Success With Jonas Johansson"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> were hit with really, really unfortunate news recently. Their two-time Stanley Cup-winning starting goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy<\/a>, is going to miss a chunk of the season<\/a>. As of now, the tentative starter appears to be Jonas Johansson<\/a>. He has been deemed by many the \u201cworst goalie [insert said person\u2019s name] has ever seen play in an NHL game.\u201d So, if he truly is the replacement plan for the starting job, what can he bring?<\/p>\n

Jonas Johansson Deep Dive: Can He Be Serviceable Until Vasilevskiy Returns?<\/h2>\n

If you were to go on Twitter (Or X) right now, and search \u201cJonas Johansson worst\u201d you will come across MANY tweets. From Scott Wheeler: \u201cJonas Johansson is maybe the worst goalie I\u2019ve ever watched play in an NHL game. Probably *the* player in the league whose continued opportunities (now a fourth NHL club) confounds me the most.\u201d Then, the famous John Vogl tweets: \u201cI can say without hesitation that the Avs are getting the worst goalie I\u2019ve ever seen during my 19 seasons covering the Sabres.\u201d Oh, it keeps going.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s understandable, unfortunately, based on what he has shown early in his career. In 2019-20, amongst goalies with at least five starts, he was 11th worst in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 Minutes (GSAx\/60). Then, in 2020-21, he ranked 12th worst in that same metric, within those same parameters. But it got worse, as in 2021-22, he actually ranked second-worst. Yet, last season was different.<\/p>\n

With the Avalanche, the 28-year-old Swede played three games. Despite the insignificant sample size, for the first time, he held a GSAx that was positive. But there was something that was significant. He performed remarkably well in the AHL, with a save percentage of .920 and a goals against average of 2.33, en route to a 19-9-2 record.<\/p>\n

Jonas Johansson Is A \u201cCalculated Risk\u201d<\/h3>\n

Three days ago, the Tampa Bay Times spoke with the Lightning goalie coach, Frantz Jean<\/a>, about the Jonas Johansson signing. Frantz said that Johansson is a \u201ccalculated risk\u201d as they decided to go with a younger backup than what they usually have. \u201cThe last probably three backups, we went with older guys. There was a reason for it\u2026 Vasy is much older and didn\u2019t need to have a veteran guy and that veteran voice\u2026 Jonas Johansson comes in and brings a different energy.\u201d Frantz mentions the fact that, unlike previous back-ups, Johansson is determined to establish himself as a starting-calibre goalie. Well, now is as good a chance as any to truly prove he can.<\/span><\/p>\n

It also helps that Johansson himself is feeling confident, as he mentioned how much he enjoyed last season. Plus, as Frantz mentioned later on in the article, Johansson has a 6\u20195\u201d frame, which isn\u2019t easy to come by. \u201cThere\u2019s not that many 6-5 guys around playing in the minors\u2026 For us, I mean, we\u2019ve got to take some\u2026 risks, and bringing in an unproven young goaltender is one.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Deeper Dive Into Johansson\u2019s Rocky Start To His Career<\/span><\/h3>\n

Jonas Johansson has notably struggled, and Vogl has made it very clear just how poor it was. But let\u2019s break it down further. Using MoneyPuck\u2019s goalie stats, they break down shots coming from high-danger, medium-danger, and low-danger areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the last four seasons that Johansson has played, he has ranked 11th worst, 20th worst, eighth worst, and, last season, eighth best in low-danger save percentage (LDSV%). Meanwhile, he ranked 12th best, 43rd best, 16th worst, and then 23rd best in medium-danger save percentage (MDSV%). Finally, he ranked 22nd worst, 24th worst, 28th worst, and 10th best in high-danger save percentage (HDSV%).<\/span><\/p>\n

Once again, last season he looked his best despite the minuscule amount of game time. But perhaps the biggest takeaway is the fact he consistently improved over the years when facing high-danger shots. That, and his notable struggles facing low-danger shots. Meanwhile, he has always been pretty solid when facing shots from medium-danger. Why is this notable?<\/span><\/p>\n

Tampa Bay\u2019s Stats for Shots Against<\/h3>\n

The reason those high, medium, and low-danger shots are important to note is that we can look at trends from the Lightning to see if Johansson\u2019s strengths will be played to, to a degree. For example, if the Lightning defenders allow a high volume of low-danger shots compared to the rest of the league, then Johansson will need to be better in those areas. But if they don\u2019t, maybe that will mask some weaknesses.<\/p>\n

The Lightning, over those same four years, allowed the eighth least, second most, fifth most, and eighth most low-danger shots against. They also allowed the 12th most, fifth least, 13th least, and 12th least medium-danger shots against. Finally, they allowed the seventh least, fifth least, 14th most, and 12th most high-danger shots against.\u00a0Looking at the Lightning defensive stats, they\u2019ve seemingly improved over the last three seasons by allowing a high volume of low-danger shots, while getting worse when it comes to limiting shots from high-danger.<\/p>\n

The Numbers and Their Meaning to Jonas Johansson<\/h4>\n

Essentially, looking at those numbers suggest that Johansson will have his work cut out for him. His struggles facing low-danger shots has been apparent, and a massive reason for concern. At the same time, the continuous rise of high-danger shots allowed is a reason to be concerned regardless of who is in net for Tampa Bay. With the defensive core seeing a lot of change, losing Ryan McDonagh<\/a> especially, means new players must step up. The decline of Victor Hedman<\/a>, though he remains their best defender, also adds to the worry.<\/p>\n

However, Nicklaus Perbix<\/a> is coming into this season with last year’s experience. He will look to take a big step forward after a largely successful rookie campaign. Then, there\u2019s Erik Cernak<\/a>, who is trying to establish himself as a McDonagh-type of defender, who is looking to prove he\u2019s worth the contract he was given. Lastly, Mikhail Sergachev<\/a> is looking to improve in his own end after a big year, where he started taking over the offensive workload that Hedman carried for so many years. Can they rally around to make Johansson\u2019s job a little easier?<\/p>\n

An Even Deeper Dive<\/h4>\n

Using HockeyViz, advanced tracking stats from Micah Black McCurdy (paid subscription required for most stats), we can break-down Jonas Johansson\u2019s game even further. Not only that, but we can also see the Lightning\u2019s defensive zone stats at a deeper level. To avoid having a blended milkshake, consisting of numbers and jumbled words describing said numbers, let\u2019s pick out the patterns and display the visuals.<\/p>\n

\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"<\/del><\/p>\n

As shown above, Jonas Johansson has faced 2.63 tipped shots per game and allowed 14 goals to 7.9 expected goals. Now, that\u2019s over the course of his career, which is not a lot. Based on that, that\u2019s 0.4 tipped goals allowed per game versus 0.23 expected per game.<\/p>\n

The reason it\u2019s broken down into per game stats is to make a projection of sorts. Vasilevskiy has faced, over the last four seasons, 3.52 tipped shots per game, with an expected goal per game total of 0.29. Using these numbers, one can determine Johansson\u2019s tipped goals allowed per shot faced (0.152) and the expected goals per tipped shot allowed against Vasilevskiy (0.082). Let\u2019s say Johansson starts 15 games in Vasilevskiy\u2019s absence. Using the 3.52 shots per game mark from Vasilevskiy, that\u2019s 53 tipped shots allowed, and a projection of roughly eight goals allowed, on 4.35 expected goals. Doesn\u2019t exactly spell confidence.<\/p>\n

What The Lightning Must Do With Jonas Johansson in Net<\/h3>\n

Johansson is not good when he is getting screened. That\u2019s why he gives up low-danger shots. That\u2019s why he is projected, with the above stats, to struggle against tips and deflections. In order to maximize the impact that Jonas Johansson can have in a positive way, it starts in front of him. Directly. Meaning net-front battles. If the Lightning defenders can use their size and strength, which is so evident on paper, to clear out that traffic, it\u2019ll go a long way.<\/p>\n

Additionally, they had one of their worst seasons in recent memory when it comes to giving up tipped shots. They allowed 248 tipped shots against Vasilevskiy last season, compared to 207, 114, and 195 in the three seasons before. That must change. It\u2019s easy to say, but if they can truly step up and do the little things in front of Johansson correctly and efficiently, there\u2019s reason to believe he can be a serviceable goalie. Not to mention, if he can be closer to the version we saw last season, then he could maybe be even better than simply \u201cserviceable\u201d. But a lot needs to be done, and done right, with a little bit of luck sprinkled in.<\/p>\n

Main photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Tampa Bay Lightning were hit with really, really unfortunate news recently. Their two-time Stanley Cup-winning starting goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy, is going to miss a chunk of the season. As of now, the tentative starter appears to be Jonas Johansson. He has been deemed by many the \u201cworst goalie [insert said person\u2019s name] has ever […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3602,"featured_media":432544,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4547,4548],"tags":[809,1708,5918],"class_list":["post-432513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lightning","category-hockey","category-nhl","tag-andrei-vasilevskiy","tag-jonas-johansson","tag-tampa-bay-lightning-analysis"],"modified_by":"Levi Pike, Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3602"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=432513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432513\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/432544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=432513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=432513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=432513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}