{"id":432069,"date":"2023-09-19T16:45:32","date_gmt":"2023-09-19T20:45:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=432069"},"modified":"2023-09-19T16:10:44","modified_gmt":"2023-09-19T20:10:44","slug":"assessing-the-tampa-bay-lightnings-underrated-defensive-expert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2023\/09\/19\/assessing-the-tampa-bay-lightnings-underrated-defensive-expert\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessing The Tampa Bay Lightning\u2019s Underrated Defensive Expert"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The phrase &#8220;defense wins championships&#8221; floats around the hockey world towards the end of the season come playoff time. Additionally, goal-scoring experiences a steep decline. However, it&#8217;s not only up to defencemen to keep the puck out of the net. The defensive play of the forwards is indispensable to structural team defence. <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/lightning\/\" target=\"_self\">Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> forward <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/p\/paulni01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Paul<\/a> will be vital to the team&#8217;s defence this upcoming season.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Nick Paul is a Career Defensive Stalwart<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/stars\/\" target=\"_self\">Dallas Stars<\/a> drafted Paul 101st overall in the fourth round during the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. Then, Paul joined the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/category\/senators\/\" target=\"_self\">Ottawa Senators<\/a> as part of a return package for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/s\/spezzja01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jason Spezza<\/a>. After splitting time between the NHL and AHL for four seasons, Paul became a full-time roster player for the 2019-20 season. Paul spent three and a half seasons with the Senators and earned an alternate captain letter for the 2021-22 season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Julien BriseBois was a massive buyer during the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline. Furthermore, the Lightning were looking for new core pieces to help them capture their third straight Stanley Cup Championship. On March 20th, BriseBois completed a transaction with the Senators to acquire Paul. The organization sent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/j\/josepma01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mathieu Joseph<\/a> and a 2024 4th-round pick the other way.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Defensive Metric Grades<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/evolving-hockey.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Evolving-Hockey&#8217;s<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Wins Above Replacement Model (WAR) grades Nick Paul as a positive defensive player at even strength every season. Displayed below are his even-strength defense grades from his entire career.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2019-20: 1.3 EVD<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2020-21: 3.5 EVD<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2021-22: 2.5 EVD<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2022-23: 1.5 EVD<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">By definition, &#8220;Goals Above Replacement (GAR, WAR, and SPAR) is a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. This single number is comprised of multiple components that are ratings for each area of play within a given sport&#8221; (<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/evolving-hockey.com\/glossary\/goals-above-replacement\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Evolving-Hockey<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Contextualizing to Understand Defensive Impact<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">While all-in-one statistics help fans capture the big picture over an 82-game season, there are still many flaws in computing these numbers. In addition, the calculation of the statistic is not understood by many. We can contextualize why the model loves his defensive game through numbers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Starting in 2019-20, the Senators did not have a productive season. The organization finished seventh place in the Atlantic Division. However, Paul emerged as a stable middle-six forward for the Senators. Paul spent the season alongside <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/b\/brownco02.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Connor Brown<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/p\/pageaje01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jean-Gabriel Pageau<\/a> as linemates. Furthermore, the trio took on the heaviest workload defensively. Paul started 15.85% of his shifts in the defensive zone, tied for second-best on the Senators.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Paul limiting the quality of chances against him boosted his even-strength defensive grade. He ranked first in expected goals against per hour relative to his teammates. All relative to teammate statistics calculations are displayed below via Evolving-Hockey.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Defense (RelTM CA\/60, RelTM xGA\/60, etc.):<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">player on-ice xGA\/60 \u2013 weighted average of all teammates\u2019 on-ice xGA\/60 (weighted by player TOI% with teammate)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Paul allowed 0.13 fewer expected goals per 60 than the Ottawa team average. Moreover, he placed tied 90th amongst 392 forwards league-wide during the entire season with 350+ minutes played.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A Career-Year Defensively for Nick Paul<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Paul experienced his best defensive season in 2021. The Senators missed the playoffs yet again with a .455-point percentage. However, Paul proved himself to be a bright spot on the roster. He started 15.32% of his shifts in the defensive zone, first amongst all Ottawa forwards. In addition, Paul allowed 0.21 fewer expected goals per hour than the Ottawa team average, good enough for tied 39th amongst 357 forwards with 350+ minutes of ice-time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The numbers match with Paul&#8217;s defensive grade that season. His 3.5 even strength defence grade is a career-best to date. Little did Senators fans know this would be Paul&#8217;s last season with the organization.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Nick Paul Joins The Bay<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">With more offensive opportunities to start the 2022 season, Paul ranked fourth in defensive zone start percentage during his time with Ottawa. Before the trade, he started 13.49% of his shifts in the defensive zone. Moreover, his -0.08 xGA\/60 relative to his teammates ranked 5th amongst Ottawa forwards.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Then, Paul quickly found his role with the Lighting after the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/coaches\/coopejo01c.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jon Cooper<\/a> immediately placed trust in him defensively. Paul started 13.16% of his shifts in the defensive zone, fourth-best amongst Tampa Bay forwards. Furthermore, his -0.11 xGA\/60 relative to his teammates ranked 5th amongst Tampa Bay forwards. Despite splitting time between two organizations, Paul posted a respectable 2.5 even strength defence grade.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Recap of Paul Last Season Defensively<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In his first full season with the Lightning, Paul did not experience a drop-off in his stellar defensive play. He recorded a grade of 1.5 even strength defense per Evolving-Hockey. Paul worked through another heavy workload defensively, starting 16.48% of his shifts in the defensive zone. This percentage ranked second-best amongst Tampa Bay forwards.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Additionally, Paul performed well relative to the rest of the team. Paul allowed 0.08 fewer expected goals per hour than the Tampa Bay team average, good enough for third amongst the forwards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What This Means For Next Season<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Lighting signed Nick Paul to a 7-year, $22 million contract in July 2022. The contract carries an annual cap hit of $3.15 million through the 2028-29 season. At 28 years old, Paul will remain an impactful forward on the defensive front for years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He&#8217;s slotted in the third-line centre role to start the 2023-24 season alongside <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/j\/jeannta01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tanner Jeannot<\/a> and Michael Essymoint. BriseBois and Cooper use him similarly to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hockey-reference.com\/players\/g\/gourdya01.html?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2023-09-19_hr\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Yanni Gourde<\/a> during the Stanley Cup run in terms of a team-building perspective. In this case, the role of a defensive centre who plays on both sides of the puck.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Main Photo: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The phrase &#8220;defense wins championships&#8221; floats around the hockey world towards the end of the season come playoff time. Additionally, goal-scoring experiences a steep decline. However, it&#8217;s not only up to defencemen to keep the puck out of the net. The defensive play of the forwards is indispensable to structural team defence. Tampa Bay Lightning [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3765,"featured_media":432095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2,4548],"tags":[3711,2424],"class_list":["post-432069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lightning","category-featured","category-nhl","tag-julien-brisebois","tag-nick-paul"],"modified_by":"Tommy Bennett","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3765"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=432069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/432095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=432069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=432069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=432069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}