{"id":40641,"date":"2019-01-28T18:44:24","date_gmt":"2019-01-28T23:44:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/?p=40641"},"modified":"2019-01-28T18:44:24","modified_gmt":"2019-01-28T23:44:24","slug":"ottawa-senators-matt-duchene","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2019\/01\/28\/ottawa-senators-matt-duchene\/","title":{"rendered":"Ottawa Senators Should Strongly Consider Trading Matt Duchene"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the biggest stories surrounding\u00a0the Ottawa Senators<\/a> this season has been their unrestricted free agents. Their three top forwards, Matt Duchene<\/a><\/strong>, Mark Stone<\/a> <\/strong>and Ryan Dzingel<\/a><\/strong> are all free agents this summer. With the Sens sitting last, what should they do?\u00a0Keeping Stone, if they can, is one option<\/a> the team should explore. However, for Matt Duchene<\/a>, a trade may be the best option.<\/p>\n

Matt Duchene Trade Makes Most Sense<\/strong><\/h1>\n

His Play<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Let’s get this out of the way now. Matt Duchene is a great player. He has been one of Ottawa’s best players since the trade and relatively speaking, on a better team that trade wouldn’t look horrible. He has 96 points in 109 games since becoming a Senator. He is one of the play-makers offensively driving this team forward. However, his overall play driving metrics are not quite where you’d want it to be given the talent of the rest of the team.<\/p>\n

His next contract will be signed when he is 28, turning 29. It will likely be 7 or 8 years with an AAV of at least 8 million. So, does his actual play warrant that kind of money?<\/p>\n

Model Decline<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Giving almost anyone above the age of 25 or 26 a long-term deal likely won’t end great for a team. Research has shown that a forwards peak is actually<\/a> 23-25, not 27-31 like many people previous have thought. So, giving almost any player an 8-year deal likely means that in their mid to late 30’s, it will not be in your team’s favour.<\/p>\n

Looking at Matt Duchene’s age curve, it’s obvious the Sens should take this into consideration. Three big GAR\/WAR models for hockey are currently Manny of Corsica’s<\/a>, Evolving Wild<\/a>, and Chace McCallum<\/a>. All three of these models had Duchene peaking 5 years ago, at age 23. Since then it has been a steady decline to the point where he is a fringe 1C.<\/p>\n

\n

Why are so many people comfortable with Duchene getting massive money long term?<\/p>\n

He clearly peaked at age 23 which was… 5 Years Ago. Otherwise, my model has been the highest on him where he’s only been a bad 1C\/high-end 2C. Signing him at 29 for 8 years doesn’t seem wise. pic.twitter.com\/KlL7ugw3br<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Chace McCallum (@CMhockey66) January 20, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n