{"id":3940,"date":"2016-12-06T09:36:56","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T14:36:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonhockey.com\/?p=3940"},"modified":"2016-12-11T14:49:08","modified_gmt":"2016-12-11T19:49:08","slug":"controversial-logan-stanley-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/hockey\/2016\/12\/06\/controversial-logan-stanley-pick\/","title":{"rendered":"Revisiting the Controversial Logan Stanley Pick"},"content":{"rendered":"

With his recently signed entry-level contract, Winnipeg Jets<\/strong> prospect Logan Stanley<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>has become a hot\u00a0topic of conversation. Some are optimistic that he will develop into a reliable defenseman. Others are sceptical, fearing that he’ll join the “tall and that’s all” club. The pick has been\u00a0a lightning rod of criticism from the very beginning. While it’s foolish to say “all is lost” this early, it warrants a lot of scepticism. General Manager\u00a0Kevin Cheveldayoff<\/strong>\u00a0swung for the fences with this selection, and it has a good chance of\u00a0being his first miss.<\/p>\n

Revisiting the Controversial Logan Stanley Pick<\/h2>\n

Moving Up the Board<\/h3>\n

Soaring in at 6’7″, 231 lbs, the Jets selected the left-handed defenseman 18th overall in the 2016 NHL Draft<\/strong>. The Jets parted ways with picks 22 and 36 in a trade with the Philadelphia Flyers<\/strong>\u00a0so they could take him\u00a0at 18. Also coming the Jets way from\u00a0the Flyers was pick 79.<\/p>\n

Jets Head Scout\u00a0Mark Hillier\u00a0<\/strong>reflects:<\/p>\n

“Stanley is a guy we’ve targeted here for quite a while. We thought it was necessary to move up four spots and take him. We thought a team was gonna take him there in between.”<\/a><\/p>\n

The team in question is presumably the\u00a0Detroit Red Wings <\/strong>with pick 20. There was much chatter that the Red Wings\u00a0had interest in the young blueliner shortly after his selection.<\/p>\n

Long-Term Development Curve<\/h3>\n

Hillier thinks the word project may be “a little too strong” to describe the selection. He made it very clear that the Jets don’t plan on using Stanley in the NHL<\/strong> for at least another three years:<\/p>\n

“He’s a guy that needs development. Two years back in junior, probably a year in the American league, and then we’ll see what we have.”<\/a><\/p>\n

Whether the term “project” is selling him short or not, one thing is for sure \u2013 he is slated to\u00a0have\u00a0a lengthy journey to the NHL.<\/p>\n

Stanley’s development curve is being compared to that of\u00a0Mark Scheifele<\/a><\/strong>, though this\u00a0is somewhat of an apples-and-oranges analogy. While it did take Scheifele a while to realize his potential, he was always\u00a0projected to be a top-six scoring forward. Stanley is still a huge unknown.<\/p>\n

He’s tall. He doesn’t get many points. Can he be a\u00a0genuine stay-at-home defenseman? Will an offensive side to his game ever emerge? He played with a top-shelf prospect in\u00a0Mikhail Sergachev<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0<\/strong>How much has this contributed to what little\u00a0success he’s had? It’s unclear to\u00a0what he is, or what he aims to become.<\/p>\n

Entry-Level Contract<\/h3>\n

Stanley\u00a0<\/strong>signed his ELC\u00a0with Winnipeg this past Tuesday. The contract has an annual average value of $1,137,500.<\/a><\/p>\n

The signing has\u00a0come at a strange time. It allows him to play his\u00a0nine-game trial in the NHL next season, but nothing has indicated that an NHL stint that soon would be rational. He’s not producing offense, and his play in defensive zone still needs a lot of tuning. Minor League Scout Steve Kournianos\u00a0<\/strong>noted\u00a0that he is still making the same coverage mistakes he made last year.<\/a>\u00a0No drastic strides have been made.\u00a0His learning phase\u00a0is still on its long term course.<\/p>\n

The Criticism<\/h3>\n

There were safer left-handed shooting defensemen taken after Stanley. Samuel Girard<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and Kale Clague <\/strong><\/a>specifically\u00a0come to mind. Both are\u00a0Canada World Junior selection camp nominees, and\u00a0<\/strong>were taken at picks 47 and 51, respectively. Rather than banking on a player like Stanley to excel solely because of\u00a0size, the Jets could have selected one of these more offensively-gifted defensemen. Both are quality puck carriers\u00a0and point producers.<\/p>\n

Big defensemen with minimal point production like Stanley don’t have a great track record of\u00a0panning out. If drafting one, ending\u00a0with something similar to the likes of\u00a0Samuel Morin<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0Jamie Oleksiak<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0Jarred Tinordi<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0Keaton Ellerby<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0Jared Cowen<\/a><\/strong>, etc is likely. The idea of one of these towering prospects reaching their ceiling is exciting, but it hardly ever happens.<\/p>\n

Once\u00a0upon a time, in 1996, it did<\/em> work out with Zdeno Chara<\/a><\/strong>. But what are the chances of lightning striking twice?<\/p>\n

It’s perhaps more preferable taking\u00a0a pick\u00a0on a player with great\u00a0physical attributes\u00a0in the middle rounds of a draft. This is what the Jets did in 2015, selecting left winger\u00a0Erik Foley<\/strong>\u00a0at pick 78. While Foley isn’t nearly as tall as Stanley, or as undeveloped offensively, the strength he showcased at\u00a0the\u00a0NHL Draft Combine<\/strong> garnered a fair bit of interest. He finished\u00a0second in bench press reps, third in consecutive pull-ups, and fourth in agility and balance.<\/a>\u00a0Foley\u00a0is coming along nicely, with his most recent accomplishment is him being announced to Team USA’s preliminary roster for the World Junior tournament.<\/p>\n

Boom or Bust<\/h3>\n

Stanley is very much a boom or bust pick. To a degree, this was a chance Cheveldayoff\u00a0could afford taking. He got Patrik Laine<\/a><\/strong> second overall.<\/p>\n

He’s just the player\u00a0leading the Western Conference<\/strong> in scoring at 18 years old? Things might be a bit different if the Jets didn’t luck into their lottery pick. Or even if they scored third overall. Imagine Jesse Puljujarvi<\/a><\/strong> and Kyle Connor<\/a><\/strong> both generating\u00a0“AHL<\/strong> demotion” talk\u00a0and\u00a0having\u00a0<\/em>Stanley\u00a0being three to four seasons away. When would they reach their compete window? There’s a growing demand in Winnipeg to win soon.\u00a0Laine has saved that.<\/p>\n

The move isn’t entirely affordable, however. One look at the Jets blue line depth can be unsettling\u00a0when thinking of where it could be in a few years, assuming Dustin Byfuglien<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Toby Enstrom<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>are either gone or ineffective.\u00a0Jacob Trouba<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0Josh<\/a> Morrissey<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Tyler Myers<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>are the\u00a0only sure-fire NHL-caliber defenders.<\/p>\n

Selecting defenseman\u00a0Luke Green<\/strong><\/a> at pick 79 this year potentially helps their situation. He’s a great puck handler and is very smooth in transition defense. While he isn’t a left-handed shot where the Jets are especially thin, he was an absolute steal. In fact, several scouts and pundits alike had Green\u00a0ahead of Stanley in their prospect rankings. This includes Last Word on Hockey’s own\u00a0Ben Kerr,<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>who listed\u00a0Green as his 37th best prospect in the 2016 NHL Draft;\u00a0Stanley was ranked 46th<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Left-Handed Defenseman Market<\/h3>\n

Thankfully, valuable and inexpensive left-handed defensemen are easily accessible. They sit in free agency and pass through waivers frequently.<\/p>\n

Mark Barberio<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>of the\u00a0Montreal Canadiens\u00a0<\/strong>cleared waivers this Wednesday.\u00a0Barberio was an AHL All-Star\u00a0and is a high-level shot suppressor in the NHL. DTM About Heart<\/a>‘s even strength “WAR” (Wins Above Replacement) model had him projected as a top-30 defenseman in that category<\/a> last year.<\/p>\n

The Colorado Avalanche<\/strong>\u00a0were able to score a solid defenseman\u00a0in\u00a0Patrick Wiercioch<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>this off-season\u00a0for a measly $800,000.\u00a0Jakub Kindl<\/a><\/strong>, another plausible\u00a0option,\u00a0has gone through waivers multiple times over the\u00a0past few years.<\/p>\n

While Cheveldayoff and Co. have provided the Jets with duds such as Mark Stuart<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Ben Chiarot<\/a><\/strong>, the option is at least out there to replace them. The only concern on this front is\u00a0will<\/em>\u00a0they\u00a0<\/em>provide the team with better depth defensemen?<\/p>\n

Closing Thoughts<\/h3>\n

Defensemen of Stanley’s breed don’t have a great history of panning out, but is it possible he has a legitimate chance of becoming an anomaly?\u00a0Is there something the Jets scouting staff see in him, convincing them he will defy the odds?\u00a0Are Jets fans willing to put enough stock in\u00a0the team’s\u00a0previous drafting success to trust this project?<\/p>\n

There is way too much unknown in the present day. He is\u00a0definitively nott\u00a0a bust at this point, no matter how badly the odds are stacked against him. He is a player in his own right. While the general rule of thumb suggests he is not destined for stardom, Jets fans can at the very least hope for a lot to change over the next few seasons.<\/p>\n

Remember, he didn’t draft himself 18th overall, the team did. Rather than vilifying an 18-yea- old, it’s probably best to be sceptical of the management’s decision, but to root for the kid at the same time.<\/p>\n

Main Photo.<\/p>\n

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Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n