Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2019-20, where Last Word on Hockey gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season and offers our insight and analysis. Make sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our 2019-20 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page. Today the series continues with the 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning.
2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning
2018-19 Season
The Tampa Bay Lightning etched their name in history last season. With a record of 62-16-4, they successfully tied the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings for the most wins in one season. This was a phenomenal feat by the Lightning. They were simply unstoppable all year, boasting amazing strength at every position. Led by an offence containing Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point, who all scored over 90 points, and a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender in Andrei Vasilevsky, the Lightning dominated the NHL.
If any team was going to tie the wins-record, it was going to be the Lightning. They have established themselves as one of the undeniable best in the league over the past few seasons. They’ve hit over 100 points in four of the last six seasons. In the two years that they didn’t see them break the 100 point mark, the Bolts still managed an impressive 94 and 97 points. Overall, the last six years have seen them make the playoffs five times and the Stanley Cup Final once, a series they lost to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Post-Season
After tying the win record and making a fool of the rest of the league last season, the expectations were sky-high for the Lightning as they entered the playoffs. Of the fellow Eastern Conference teams that also made the post-season, none seemed to hold a candle to the Lightning. Especially not their first-round matchup, the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yet, the Blue Jackets flipped the script on Tampa.
Not only did Columbus trump the Lightning, they swept them in an emphatic four games. The Lightning, whose offence led the league in scoring during the regular season, only managed eight goals in these four games. On the flip side, the Jackets managed to net a daunting 19 goals, more than doubling the Lightning’s goal totals despite facing off against the Vezina winning Vasilevsky. It was the first playoff series win in Columbus history and it came at the fate of one of the greatest teams to ever take the ice.
2019 Off-Season
If there’s anything that the St. Louis Blues proved last season, it’s that depth wins championships in the modern-day NHL. Bottom-line players like Ivan Barbashev, Alex Steen, and Robert Bortuzzo were the difference-makers as the Blues shoved their way to their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
The Lightning clearly took note of this after the disappointing end to their season. They spent the off-season reeling in multiple depth pieces. This included strong names like Pat Maroon, Luke Schenn, and Chris Mueller. While these players’ roles may initially be a bit trivial, they’ll ultimately become the final pieces to the puzzle and bolster an already amazing Lightning lineup. Tampa also signed Kevin Shattenkirk after he was bought out by the New York Rangers.
With Point spending the summer as a restricted free agent, certain moves were needed to assure that the team would have enough cap space to re-sign their star winger. The cap-shedding-moves in mind came in the form of J.T. Miller being dealt to the Vancouver Canucks, for Marek Mazanec and two draft picks. Adam Erne was dealt to the Detroit Red Wings for a fourth-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. The final deal came with sending Ryan Callahan to the Ottawa Senators after it was discovered that Callahan would miss the entirety of next season with a likely career-ending injury. These deals assured that the team, in the grand scheme of things, would have just enough to bring back Point.
Lineup Predictions
Offence
Tyler Johnson – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Ondrej Palat – Steven Stamkos – Yanni Gourde
Alex Killorn – Anthony Cirelli – Mathieu Joseph
Pat Maroon – Cedric Paquette – Chris Mueller
Extras: Luke Witkowski, Carter Verhaeghe
The 2019-20 Tampa Bay lineup is going to be similar to last season. The top three lines were all heavily featured during the team’s historic 2018-19 season and if it’s not broke don’t fix it. With that said, the new additions to the fourth line make the forwards lineup, as a whole, one of the best in the entire NHL.
Top Six
These two lines were the heart of the Lightning last year. No line was more featured during even-strength play than the trio of Johnson, Point, and Kucherov. They had a tremendous stat line, appearing on the ice for 35 goals-for and 24-against over the course of 52 games together. They are the most consistent line in Tampa and will look to continue this dominance next season.
With that said, the entire top-six is interchangeable. Every player is dominant enough to warrant a top-line role. Miller often accompanied Palat and Stamkos last season. With Miller being dealt away during the off-season, it’s now Gourde’s chance to earn his spot among the best top-six in the league. In 80 games, Gourde tallied 48 points last year. This was a step down from his rookie season total when he scored 64 points in 82 games. Spending an entire year along the dominant Stamkos and Palat will surely rekindle this spark in Gourde.
Bottom Six
The third line stays relatively unchanged from last season. This trio was unstoppable as well. They recorded a Corsi-for of 56.84 percent, an expected goals-for of 55.85, percent, and an overall PDO of 100.43. All of these numbers go to say one thing: this line was amazing over the course of last season. The PDO close to 100 also means that there wasn’t any crazy shooting or save percentage luck. They’ll undoubtedly be paired together next year and look to match the amazing advanced-stat line they set last season.
The fourth line is where questions arise, although they’re quickly dismissed. Paquette will surely slot into the centre position, after a tremendous year at the faceoff dot last season. On his left will surely be Maroon, whose tremendous work ethic was a key factor in the Blues Stanley Cup win. On Paquette’s right, the team has a few options. Having Mueller take over the role would be ideal. He averaged over a point-per-game last season, serving as the first-line centre for the Toronto Marlies of the AHL. While Mueller’s age and the position change, from centre to right-wing, do open the way to a bit of concern, his impressive play last year should trump everything. Fitting him into the lineup, no matter what role it is in, is a win for Tampa.
Fourth Line Wings
With that said, players like Raddysh and Barre-Boulet are very close behind Mueller. Ultimately, the decision of who to slot into the fourth-line right-wing role falls on the Tampa front office. The fourth line, on average, only appeared in seven minutes of each game last year, at least at even strength. This is far from ideal for any prospect. While yes, it’s nice to have your youngsters apart of the NHL, it can be fairly limiting to give them such little ice time in their rookie season.
There’s also a case to be made for Verhaeghe, who led Tampa’s AHL-affiliate in scoring last season. Verhaeghe has shown he’s clearly ready to move on from the AHL. While, again, giving him such an inconsequential role would be less than ideal, he’d be much more prone to receiving it than Raddysh or Barre-Boulet. In the case that Verhaeghe does slot into the fourth-line, it will likely be as the left-wing, with Maroon moving to the right side.
Ultimately, there are a handful of players vying for a roster spot. If the Lightning decide they aren’t comfortable giving such limited ice time to a younger player, they have an incredibly reliable option in Chris Mueller. If they do want to give younger players a chance to shine, it will be a battle between Verhaeghe, Raddysh, and many other names for the role. This battle will likely take place during the team’s training camp. The 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning forwards look just as stacked as last season.
Defence
Victor Hedman – Mikhail Sergachev
Ryan McDonagh – Kevin Shattenkirk
Extras: Jan Rutta
The 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning defence will also look fairly similar, although the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk causes a bit of shifting within the lower ranks. Still, much like the offence, the defence wasn’t broke. They were instead a tremendous bunch last year and have only improved over the course of the summer.
Top Pairing
Hedman is one of the best defencemen to ever put on a Lightning jersey. Yet, despite this, he hasn’t been given the best partners over the past few years. The 2019-20 season is Tampa’s chance to fix this. With the recent breakout of Sergachev, who tallied a modest 32 points in 75 games last year en route to establishing himself as a top-four defenceman, the Bolts have a seemingly perfect partner for Hedman. Sergachev is a left-handed shot but has shown he’s comfortable on his off-side, a trait that many NHL defencemen don’t share. While this off-handedness may deter a few people, there’s simply no doubting that the duo of Hedman and Sergachev is the best possible bet for the top-line role next season.
Second Pairing
This is where the duos get exciting. Ryan McDonagh and Kevin Shattenkirk are both products of the pitiful New York Rangers defence, even spending some time on the same pairing. Since coming to Tampa, McDonagh has seen a healthy resurgence, netting 46 points in 82 games in his first full year with Tampa last season. He’s seemed much more alive with the Lightning, after a fairly unceremonial end to his tenure in New York.
Shattenkirk falls into the same boat that McDonagh was in not too long ago. After a decrease in quality-of-play, Shattenkirk was booted out of the Rangers lineup. Despite being 30-years-old, Shattenkirk still has plenty of potential to find his former, 40-point-scoring self with Tampa next season. With former teammate McDonagh at his side, this should be a breeze for Shattenkirk. If he does see a resurgence, this duo could become one of the most flushed-out in all of hockey. They are both impressive scorers with a modest knack for the defensive end of things, making for a very well-rounded pairing if all goes well.
Third Pairing
This pairing makes perfect sense. It’s simply putting the two final NHL-calibre defencemen on the last line and it will work out beautifully for Tampa. Cernak saw a healthy 16 points in 58 games during his rookie season last year, a pace of 22 points over 82 games. For a third-pairing defenceman, this is terrific. The same can be said for Coburn, who tallied 23 points in 74 games last year.
Overall, this duo is simply the best possible backing to an already incredibly strong Tampa defence. Pairing Cernak with the 33-year-old Coburn could also make for some terrific mentorship, as Cernak looks to establish his role in the NHL.
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevsky
Vasilevsky will be the starter for Tampa again next year. Hoping to only improve on his 2018-19 season, a year that saw him deal with a handful of injuries. In fact, he’ll likely earn yet another Vezina Trophy nomination next year. His spot in the lineup is blatant.
What isn’t blatant is who will man the backup role. The Lightning brought in Mike Condon and McElhinney over the summer, confusing acquisitions considering Louis Domingue seemingly had the backup role locked down last year. With that said, McElhinney is likely to take the reigns from Domingue.
Last year, with the Carolina Hurricanes, the then 35-year-old McElhinney recorded a modest .912 save percentage and 2.58 goals-against-average. This save percentage was better than Domingue’s .908, despite McElhinney having a lesser team in front of him. While the prowess Carolina had isn’t a far step down from Tampa, McElhinney can only expect to improve in the backup position this year. If he struggles in any way, Domingue is a perfect replacement.
Players to Watch
Kevin Shattenkirk
Shattenkirk was shipped off to the Washington Capitals during the 2017 Trade Deadline. That summer, he signed with the Rangers. After a great career in St. Louis, Shattenkirk was a huge disappointment in New York. He scored 23 and 28 points in his two seasons there respectively, a far cry from his career-high of 56. Although the 23 points came in a mere 46 games. Still, he was riddled with injuries and couldn’t manage much when he was in the lineup. The Rangers booted him out of town this summer and many fans questioned whether he was set to see an early end to what had been a fairly impressive career.
The Lightning quickly dispelled any doubts. They signed Shattenkirk to a one-year deal with a modest cap hit of $1.75 million. This deal gives Shattenkirk a shot at redemption. The Lightning are clearly well aware of the dominance Shattenkirk possessed in St. Louis and hope he can bring that same fire next season. If he can, he is poised to have a career year, even at his older age. Even playing to part of what he was a few years back would be huge for Tampa. In St. Louis, Shattenkirk manned every aspect of the offensive end of the game, including the power play. He was one of the most important players in a Blues jersey, with some fans even arguing he was more valuable than Alex Pietrangelo.
This is a hefty claim but Shattenkirk made sure he backed it up. He was terrific with the Blues. If he can find this former-self, he provides an amazing addition to a Tampa lineup that’s already historically strong offensively. In short, Shattenkirk could become one of the most important role players in the league next year if all goes well. He’s a tremendous quarterback on the power-play and boasts a very versatile, playmaking style of play. On such an amazing Tampa roster, there’s no limit to what Shattenkirk can do.
Anthony Cirelli
Cirelli was simply amazing last year. He exceeded all expectations, looking like one of the most well-rounded bottom-six centres in the league. He was so strong defensively, in fact, that SB Nation argued he should’ve earned Selke Trophy nominations. This isn’t far-fetched either, with a lot of fans noting his prowess last year. He’s earned his promotion to third-line centre and will look to build off of his breakout rookie season last year.
This includes improving on the already impressive 39 points he scored last year. Playing alongside great players in Killorn and Joseph will surely bring up this point total over the course of next year, as will the added year of experience. Cirelli will be a very exciting name to follow next year. After such an impressive rookie campaign, the sky is the limit for the 22-year-old.
2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
The Lightning were a historic team last season. They got even better over the summer. The scary reality is, Tampa will look to have an even better year next season. They’ve bolstered their depth at every position, effectively ridding themselves of any question marks that loomed over their heads.
There are few teams that have looked stronger than the 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning headed into the season. They will surely come out with a fire in their hearts next year after the end to last season. They are a Stanley Cup calibre team. Anything less than a Cup win would be a complete disappointment. With such a complete lineup, though, a Cup win seems to be only a matter of time.
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