It may not be the best decision in the long run to re-sign James van Riemsdyk. The Toronto Maple Leafs already have to shell out quite a bit to keep their big three: Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews. Considering they have a need for a top defenseman, there may not be enough left over to re-sign van Riemsdyk. If they are willing to make some sacrifices, it may not be a guarantee that van Riemsdyk walks as a UFA this off-season.

James Van Riemsdyk Can Re-Sign With the Toronto Maple Leafs

He’s A Goal Scoring Machine

It’s obvious why the Leafs would want to re-sign van Riemsdyk. It starts with a recent five goals in two games run against the Dallas Stars and Buffalo Sabres. That gave him his second career 30-goal season. Considering his track record over the past six years. It’s safe to say he’s a perennial 30-goal threat.

His average goals scored per 82 games over these past six seasons is 30.39. At 28-years-old, there’s no reason to think he won’t score 30 at least a few more times.

Ages Well

Van Riemsdyk has a very straightforward skillset. Stand in front of the net, screen the goalie, bang in rebounds, and impress the hockey world with those nifty hands. He can score top shelf from two feet out. And he’s big enough that there isn’t much anyone can do about it.

He has a very similar skillset to Dave Andreychuk. Andreychuk played until he was 42 years old, scoring a career 640 goals including a 21-goal season at 40 with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He also won the Stanley Cup with the Lightning that year.

There are few players outside of Jaromir Jagr that play into their 40s as the NHL trends towards youth and speed. It’s not likely van Riedmsky will still be playing in a decade. But he has a better chance of playing well into his thirties than most. It’s hard to fault a guy for losing a step when his main job is to stand in front of the net.

How Much Is He Worth

He’s probably looking for a long-term contract. If someone were to sign him for the max term of seven years, they’re probably going to have the same player in year one as year seven. It makes signing him long-term far less risky for any team.

He’s earning $4.25 million this season. Phil Kessel is a very different player than van Riemsdyk, but his old buddy is another regular 30-goal scorer. Kessel’s contract is worth $8 million per year for four years after this one (though the Pittsburgh Penguins are only on the hook for $6.8 million per year). Van Riemsdyk may not get quite that high, but he will be in demand on the open market. A fair market value deal may be somewhere around $6.5 to $7 million per season for six or seven years.

It’s usually not wise to bet against Lou Lamoriello, but the common thought that he’ll sign van Riemsdyk to some kind of hometown discount is a long shot at best.  For one, his hometown is in New Jersey. The Leafs do have some advantage over other teams. They are looking to be contenders for the foreseeable future, and they are the only team that could offer an eight-year contract. They would have to sign him before July 1st. Before other teams have a chance to legally woo him. If he’s very motivated to stay, it’s possible.

If the Leafs did go the eight-year contract route, they could offer something like $45.5 million in total. That would put his cap hit at $5.7 million a year. The same money on a seven-year deal would see a $6.5 million a year cap hit. It would be a major investment for the Leafs, but the best possible contract for the short term.

Salary Cap Woes

The Maple Leafs have about $45 million locked up for next season, excluding Nathan Horton‘s contract. Assuming that they let Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov walk, which they would have to if they have hopes of signing van Riemsdyk, the only major asset they need to re-sign would be Nylander. There is plenty of space for Nylander and van Riemsdyk next year. The real trouble begins the year after when they have to re-sign Matthews and Marner.

Ideally, all three of Matthews, Nylander, and Marner sign eight-year contracts. That costs a bit more now, but by the time those contracts are a few years old, they may look like steals as the salary cap grows. It’s reasonable to consider all three will total upwards of $25 million if they go that route. If the Leafs manage to sign van Riemsdyk to $6 million, that would put the 2019-2020 Leafs cap at $64 million with nine forwards, three defensemen, and Frederik Andersen in goal.

The NHL salary cap is at $75 million this year and tends to go up about $2 million a year. If we assume that trend continues, the cap will be #79 million in the 2019 -2020 season. That gives the Leafs $15 million to sign three forwards, three defensemen, and a backup goalie.

This is where Patrick Marleau‘s contract hurts. His cap hit is $6.25 million, and he’ll be 40 years old in the last year of his contract. Unlike Andreychuk, Marleau needs his speed to be effective. He’s looked pretty good this season, with 23 goals in 71 games, but once a player starts to decline, it can be a steep slope. There’s a reason the San Jose Sharks didn’t want to add on that third year. Matt Martin will also still be around that season with a $2.5 million cap hit. If the team can somehow shed those two salaries by 2019-2020, it would go a long way to keeping van Riemsdyk now.

Is He Worth All The Fuss

There’s no doubt it seems like the Leafs should be working overtime to find a way to re-sign van Riemsdyk. But there are some convincing reasons to not sign him as well. It starts with the defensive side of the game. His Corsi numbers over the past three seasons are actually pretty good. He’s averaged a 54.2 Corsi For percentage over that time, and his relative Corsi For percentage is a +7 this year. That’s really good, but also a bit deceiving.

The old eye test reveals that van Riemsdyk is slow to get back into defensive plays, and he’s reluctant to play physical when required. He is also sheltered by Mike Babcock. Van Riemsdyk leads the team in offensive zone starts at 65.6 percent.

A Selke consideration he is not. That prevents him from playing on both the top line and a shutdown line. He’s stuck on a secondary scoring line, which isn’t bad, but what is a player of that calibre worth? A contract with $6 million a year over eight years may be pushing it. Especially with the glut of forwards the Leafs have now and expect to have in the future. Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson are two of those players, either one could be a good replacement for van Riemdyk over the next few years. There is an argument to be made that the Leafs don’t need van Riemsdyk.

Other Options

If the Leafs decide to stick with speed and youth by not signing van Riemsdyk, they’ll be able to spend those $6 million upgrading their defence. It could be especially concerning if they did sign van Riemsdyk and fail to remove Marleau in the 2019-2020 season. They have only Morgan Rielly, Travis Dermott, and Nikita Zaitsev signed for that season. They’ll need to either give Jake Gardiner, who’ll be a UFA by then, a raise from his $4 million per year cap hit or let him go. Either way, they’ll have spots to fill on the back end. Tying up most of their money in forwards could be a problem.

Matthews, Nylander, and Marner will be hitting their prime. The Leafs should be true contenders by then, but not with a rookie, or cheap defence. Zaitsev has not looked nearly as good this season as last. Dermott is still too young to know for sure where he’ll fit in. If the Leafs lose Gardner, they may have two or three top four spots to fill by 2019.  As fun as it is to watch the Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 7-2 in the regular season. They’re not going to win so handily if they meet the Jets in the Stanley Cup Final one of these years. Hands down, a legitimate top pairing defenseman, if one were to be available, would be preferable to re-signing van Riemsdyk if the decision was that simple.

Van Riemsdyk is a great player. He’s got amazing hands and a nose for goals. Any team that signs him will be glad to have him. The Leafs have been very creative with the salary cap recently, and they could very well find a way to re-sign him. The Marleau signing and a need to improve the defence are the major stumbling blocks for that. A strong playoff performance may go a long way to swaying the Maple Leaf’s brass. If he’s a no-show or the Leafs have an early exit, his trade deadline return could be the biggest story this off-season.