{"id":438352,"date":"2026-07-09T14:09:39","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T14:09:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/?p=438352"},"modified":"2026-07-09T14:09:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T14:09:39","slug":"2026-british-open-scottie-scheffler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/2026-british-open-scottie-scheffler\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 British Open: Why Scottie Scheffler at +550 Is Not a Slam Dunk"},"content":{"rendered":"

Look at the <\/span>golf betting odds<\/span><\/a> for the 2026 Open Championship and Scottie Scheffler is sitting at +550 like it’s obvious. World number one, defending champion, four majors, blah blah blah. And yes, all of that is real. Here is what is also real, since January, the man has not won a tournament. His approach ran too deep, and the first putt was jammed and went way past the hold. There was no way to convert a comebacker. A yard too deep. That’s the margin we’re talking about.<\/span><\/p>\n

He even said it at his US Open press conference, which golfers almost never do. “I feel like I’ve been close most of the year. I feel like I just haven’t been as sharp as I needed to be.”<\/em> That’s the defending Open champion going on record that something isn’t quite right. Golf Channel analysts broke down exactly what it is after the Travelers: speed control on the greens, specifically on longer putts. Not the mechanics, not the line, the pace. Which matters a lot at Royal Birkdale, where the greens are firm and subtle and will absolutely punish you for leaving anything above the hole.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also Read: Scottie Scheffler has MAJOR opportunities in 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

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The Part the Market Is Glossing Over\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

His ball-striking has slipped too. Still good, obviously, we’re talking about the world number one, not some journeyman, but his strokes gained approach has dropped from best in the world to 16th in the 2026 season. Sixteenth. On a course that essentially demands you hit fairways and greens to score, that’s the kind of detail that should make you at least pause before handing over money at +550.<\/span><\/p>\n

There’s a historical angle that doesn’t help him either. Eight of the last ten Open Champions had already won a tournament earlier that same season before they went and won the Claret Jug. <\/span>Scheffler last won in January.<\/span><\/a> Now that’s not disqualifying, two exceptions exist in the last decade, but it does suggest that form and momentum going into major week matter more at The Open than the betting market typically prices in. The player who’s been knocking on the door all season without quite opening it is a different creature to the player who’s been winning and carrying that confidence into a links course in July.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here’s the thing though, and this is what makes Scheffler such a frustrating betting proposition, his floor is still absurdly high. He keeps finishing in the top five. He lost the US Open<\/a> by six shots and still shot himself into contention. If he turns up at Birkdale and finds whatever it was that made him look untouchable in 2025, +550 is a steal. Royal Birkdale is actually a decent course for his game: the fairways are flatter than most links, the rough is brutal enough to punish anyone who misses, and the layout rewards the kind of patient, disciplined approach shot golf that even a slightly off-key Scheffler can produce. So I’m not saying don’t back him. I’m saying +550 is a price built on the 2025 version and the 2026 version is giving you more doubt than that price suggests.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Where the Better Value Actually Lives<\/span><\/h2>\n

McIlroy at +850 interests me far more, if I’m being honest. Eight top-tens in 16 Opens, won at Royal Liverpool in 2014 with some of the best links golf you’ll see from any modern player, T4 at Birkdale the last time it hosted in 2017. He’s had a disappointing season by his own sky-high standards but that’s partly because winning the Masters in April set the bar absurdly high for everything that followed. Links golf at The Open is genuinely his terrain and he arrives with more course-specific credentials than <\/span>Scheffler<\/span><\/a> at a meaningfully better price.<\/span><\/p>\n

And then there’s Fleetwood<\/a> at +1400. He’s from Southport. The first tee at Royal Birkdale is about 200 yards from where he grew up. Runner-up in 2019, three top-tens in his last six Opens. He’s talked about what winning there would mean to him, which is either a pressure he can’t handle or a motivation that statistical models can’t quantify. He hasn’t won in 2026 which the historical trend would hold against him, but some weeks that stuff doesn’t matter and a local lad going for the biggest win of his career at his home course is exactly the kind of narrative that ignores the data and produces a champion anyway.<\/span><\/p>\n

Back Scheffler if you want. He might win. But at +550, you’re paying a premium for a player who’s spent seven months being nearly right rather than actually right, on a course that will find his speed control issue within the first nine holes if it’s still there. The gap between that price and what the 2026 evidence actually supports is wider than it looks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Image credit: IMAGO \/\u00a0<\/span>AFLOSPORT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Look at the golf betting odds for the 2026 Open Championship and Scottie Scheffler is sitting at +550 like it’s obvious. World number one, defending champion, four majors, blah blah blah. And yes, all of that is real. Here is what is also real, since January, the man has not won a tournament. His approach […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":438353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15,19],"tags":[8092,154,186],"class_list":["post-438352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-golf","category-pga","tag-british-open","tag-scottie-scheffler","tag-tommy-fleetwood"],"modified_by":"Michael Kovacs, ADMIN","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438352"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":438357,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438352\/revisions\/438357"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/438353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}