The final squad selections are in, and almost every World Cup team has had the opportunity to play one or more World Cup warm-up matches, taking on a mix of qualified nations, and some of the best teams that didn’t qualify like Nigeria and Venezuela. Initially, we ranked the 48 qualified nations based on their performance in qualifying, friendlies, and their projected squad lists. Now those 26 man lists are finalized, and injuries, form, and fitness have impacted some teams more than others. With the tournament kicking off on Thursday with Mexico hosting South Africa at Estadio Azteca, we’re taking one more look at each group, and projecting out which teams are likely to reach the knockout stages.
Group A Projection: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic (Czechia), South Africa
Group A remains one of the most open in the tournament, Mexico at #25 is the favorite, followed by South Korea at #29 and Czechia at #32. South Africa, initially ranked #41 is expected to be the outsider.
Playing at home with favorable conditions, Mexico enters the tournament on a three-match winning streak, closing out their preparations with wins over Ghana, Australia and Serbia. The health of the roster is also a bonus for Javier Aguirre, Gilberto Mora at 17 looks fit enough to feature in the midfield, Chivas Brian Guiterrez is in-form, and the defence with Genoa’s Johan Vasquez looks extremely capable. Mexico are still unlikely to score in multitudes but in tournament knock out football they won’t need to, it’s about surviving and advancing.
South Korea beat Trinidad and Tobago and El Salvador ahead of game #1 against Czechia, but their continued usage of 3 in the back under manager Hong Myung-bo is a point of debate. Borussia Mochengladbach’s Jens Castrop was called up, while Cho Yu-min is out with injury.
Czechia went undefeated against Kosovo and Guatemala in the warm-up window, teenager Hugo Sochurek (Sparta Prague) was called up in the midfield while there are fitness concerns around Lyon’s Pavel Suic. Czechia are a side that could be punished by hot temperatures in North America.
South Africa under Hugo Broos have been training in Mexico and looking to acclimate to conditions. A draw against Nicaragua at home was a shock, and they managed a 1-0 win over Jamaica a week later. This largely domestic based squad will continue to have low expectations this tournament.
Group B Projection: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia, Qatar
Switzerland at #17 are expected to top the group, Canada at #31, Bosnia at #33 and Qatar at #44 all see a unique opportunity to reach the knockout stage in a group with a lot of parity.
Bosnia have now played full-time draws for five consecutive matches and are clearly a side with limited firepower ahead of their opener in Toronto against Canada. The hype remains around PSV winger Esmir Bajraktarevic, a 21-year-old. For Canada injuries are a major concern, Marcelo Flores and CB Moise Bombito are both out with leg injuries. Manager Jesse Marsch needs to finalize two replacements, while dealing with the reality that Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies is missing at least the opener, and possibly more games. Canada’s injury bug didn’t stop them from defeating Uzbekistan on debut on June 1st, before a 1-1 draw with Ireland on June 5th.
Qatar lost to Ireland and only drew with El Salvador in their warm-up matches. They remain a team in poor form, and despite naming an experienced squad, are clear favorites to be knocked out of the tournament in last place. Switzerland, having beaten Jordan handily and drawn with Australia has a veteran squad that should be up for the task at hand. At 33-years-old, Granit Xhaka from Sunderland remains their leader.
Group C Projection: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Initially ranked #46, Haiti have seen their stock rise a bit due to key squad additions, Brazil (#8), and Morocco (#10) are expected to contest for group supremacy, while Scotland (#28) are trying to advance as a dark horse side.
Brazil called up Neymar and are hoping he’s fit, Ederson has replaced Wesley due to injury, while Estevao from Chelsea is out. Having tuned up with wins over Panama and Egypt, they remain the group favorite. Morocco drew with Norway in their last outing and opted to call up a number of in-experienced players like Lille teenager Ayyoub Bouaddi, and Sunderland’s Chemsdine Talbi. This is a squad with 11 of 26 players with less than 10 caps.
An injury to midfielder Billy Gilmour weakened Scotland, Tyler Fletcher, a Manchester United academy teenager was brought in as the replacement, and the goals have come freely, having put four past both Curacao and Bolivia in their warm-up matches. Haiti dominated New Zealand in South Florida 4-0 before a loss to Peru was a jolt to their momentum. Having Sunderland’s Wilson Isidor in the squad is a boost, along with Wolverhampton’s Jean-Ricner Bellegarde. The Haiti and Scotland clash on June 13th could decide the critical third place position in this group.
Group D Projection: Turkey (Turkiye), United States, Paraguay, Australia
An injury to Paraguay attacker Julio Enciso (Strasbourg) is such a serious blow to Paraguay’s chances that it knocks them down from #26 into the 30s. The United States (#27) and Turkey (#22) are set to benefit, while Australia #30 are still in a difficult place in a group full of parity.
Paraguay won their send-off match with an amazing fireworks display 4-0 over Nicaragua, but Enciso’s leg injury, that will make him miss at least two games, leaves them as underdogs against the United States on June 12th. The United States looked solid in a 3-2 win over Senegal at the end of May, before a 2-1 loss to Germany in a packed Soldier Field in Chicago on June 6th. This is a US side that has a knack for finding goals but also can concede easily.
Turkey, who I still expect to top the group, extended their winning streak to four games with wins over Venezuela and North Macedonia. There’s 4 U23 players who are critical for their chances in the squad, including Arda Guler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus). Australia lost to Mexico and drew Switzerland in their warm-ups. Tony Popovic sprung a late surprising, getting Cristian Volpato, a 22-year-old Italian from Sassuolo in Serie A to switch to the Socceroos. Even with Volpato, Australia has the lowest tier squad on paper, but plenty of grit.
Group E Projection: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao
Curacao (#48) continues to show signs of being competitive, but they are still in a group of death on debut, as they lost 4-1 to Scotland before beating Aruba in their send-off game. Veteran Dutch manager Dick Advocaat has returned. They open against a Germany side that just beat the United States and Finland, and firmly believes it can win the World Cup. Germany at #6 hasn’t lost since September, and despite the blow of losing Bayern wonderkid Lennart Karl due to injury, he’s replaced by RB Leipzig’s Assan Ouedraogo who is just 20 years old. Germany will rely on veteran Bayern keeper Manuel Neuer for yet another World Cup.
Ecuador (#14) and Ivory Coast (#19) have both seen their stocks rise. Ecuador defeated Saudi Arabia and Guatemala during the warm-up window and with Willian Pacho and friends they have the best defensive setup in world football. The June 14th clash against Ivory Coast in Philadelphia looks like a must-see matchup. Ivory Coast is on a 4-match winning streak that includes an upset of France in France on June 4th. There are 9 U-23 players on the Ivory Coast squad including teenager Yan Diomande, while Ecuador also has one of the tournament’s youngest and fittest teams.
Group F Projection: Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, Tunisia
The Netherlands opener with Japan weighs heavily on this group as the Netherlands was initially projected #5, and Japan #11, followed by Sweden at #23 and Tunisia at #36. In their last three outings, the Dutch have been poor and look lost in attack. They did win 2-1 against Uzbekistan, but they lost to Algeria 1-0 on June 3rd in Rotterdam, and drew with Ecuador back in March.
Missing a traditional striker, and also defender Jurrien Timber who is out injured and was replaced by Lutsharel Geertruida from Sunderland, this Dutch side is still supremely talented but offensively vulnerable with players like Crysencio Summerville (West Ham) trying to step in and fill that role, with Memphis Depay (Corinthians) struggling.
Japan are undefeated since October and beat Iceland in their only warm-up match. They are without Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton) which is a blow, but those injuries are no more serious than the Netherlands who miss Jerdy Schouten and Xavi Simons.
Sweden looked poor in a loss to Norway, and then drew Greece for their warm-up matches. Tunisia’s ranking has taken a blow, losing to Austria and Belgium without scoring a goal in two June warm-up matches. Sweden should be favored to get the win over Tunisia, but may struggle for points in their other two matches.
We will return tomorrow with projections for the remaining groups.
Main Photo Credit: Smartframe Images
