{"id":82,"date":"2016-08-29T08:51:04","date_gmt":"2016-08-29T12:51:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordoncollegefootball.com\/?p=82"},"modified":"2025-09-13T16:13:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T20:13:18","slug":"82","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/2016\/08\/29\/82\/","title":{"rendered":"Passing Grade? Inside Joshua Dobbs’ Passing Production"},"content":{"rendered":"

Big things are expected from the Tennessee Volunteers<\/strong> this season. They enter the first week as a consensus Top 10 team, SEC East<\/strong> favorites, and riding the momentum of three straight seasons of improvement. But if the Vols are to reach their potential, one thing in particular must get better: Joshua Dobbs<\/a><\/strong>\u2019 passing game. Specifically, the vertical passing game.<\/p>\n

This statement won\u2019t come as a surprise to Vol fans. What might come as a surprise, though, is just how much it needs to improve. Because of the play calling, Dobbs\u2019 season stat lines are deceiving. You would think a quarterback with a 59.6% completion rate, 2291 yards, and a 15:5 Touchdown-to-Interception ratio would not have much room to improve. To understand the impact of a poor vertical passing attack on the Orange and White offense in 2015, just take a look at some key numbers.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

INSIDE THE NUMBERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n

As we said, Dobbs\u2019 passing numbers were masked by the reliance of the short passing game all season. Dobbs\u2019 passing \u201cefficiency\u201d numbers (completion percentage and percentage of completions that resulted in first downs) are actually good.<\/p>\n

\"Comp\"1D<\/p>\n

A completion rate of 59.6% and a first down rate of 58% easily puts Dobbs in the top half of the conference in 2015. In fact, his first down completion rate was third best. These numbers, however, are highly influenced by the reliance on outlet passes, swing passes, and short screen. Alvin Kamara<\/a><\/strong> and Jalen Hurd<\/a><\/strong>, Tennessee\u2019s running back duo, were the second- and sixth-leading receivers in 2015. Hurd was only two receptions from being the fourth-leading receiver. That\u2019s a staggering 27.3% of receptions from running backs.<\/p>\n

Where Dobbs\u2019 statistics start to break down is in the vertical passing game. On percentage of completions that resulted in receptions of 15-plus yards or more, Dobbs ranked eighth in the SEC<\/strong> with 28%. when you make that 25-plus yards, Dobbs ranked 12th<\/sup> at 8%. The latter category puts Dobbs in the same company as Missouri<\/strong>\u2019s Drew Lock<\/a><\/strong> and Vanderbilt<\/strong>\u2019s Johnny McCrary<\/a><\/strong>. For a team that wants to contend for a national title, that\u2019s not the company you want to be in.<\/p>\n

\"15+<\/p>\n

\"25+But that\u2019s not the worst part. The effect of such a dismal vertical passing game is realized late in games. Teams refuse to respect the deep threat and clamp down on the middle and underneath passing attack. Dobbs\u2019 fourth quarter \u201cclutch\u201d stats should be the most alarming statistics from 2015 for Tennessee fans. Joshua Dobbs had no touchdown passes in the fourth quarter or overtime in the entire 2015 season. That, of course, ranks dead last in the SEC for 2015. Only two other quarterbacks, Patrick Towles<\/a><\/strong> from Kentucky<\/strong> and the afore-mentioned Johnny McCrary from Vanderbilt, also had more interceptions than touchdowns in the SEC in 2015.<\/p>\n

\"4Q<\/p>\n

\"4Q\"4QJoshua Dobbs is a popular player, and for good reason. He\u2019s the epitome of the student-athlete. He\u2019s active in the community and charity efforts. He\u2019s a leader in the locker room. And he\u2019s a great running quarterback. But for Tennessee to compete for championships, he must be better at the vertical passing attack in 2016.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A CASE STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF THE (ABSENCE OF A) VERTICAL PASSING ATTACK: OKLAHOMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The 2015 Oklahoma<\/strong> game is the perfect example of how the absence of a vertical passing attack can undermine an otherwise good offense. Tennessee scored 17 first half points behind a strong and very impressive running attack. Oklahoma\u2019s defense played the first quarter in a very standard, primarily two-deep defense with a four-man rush. An example of their formation is here:<\/p>\n

\"Dobbs<\/p>\n

They played this system for the majority of the first half. Only later in the second quarter, after going down 17-3, did Oklahoma shift their defensive strategy to stop the run. Here is the Sooner adjustment on the sixth series of the first half. At this point in the game, three of Tennessee\u2019s first five drives had resulted in points and two of those series had eight plays or more. Oklahoma knew that they couldn\u2019t let Tennessee keep grinding at that pace. They adjusted their defense to a one-deep safety and put an additional player in \u201cThe Box\u201d. Additionally, from this point out, they had no less than seven men in \u201cThe Box\u201d and rushed six men on almost every play. This, of course, comes at the risk of the deep pass.<\/p>\n

\"Dobbs<\/p>\n

In the first half, Tennessee had six full series (the seventh ended with halftime). There were 21 called runs and 17 called passes. Tennessee completed only six passes on those 17 pass play calls. In addition to seven incompletions, they had four pass play calls that ended up in either a sack or a quarterback run. Of their 13 actual passes nine were targets less than ten yards, three were targets between ten and 19 yards, and only one pass targeted a receiver beyond 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. In series six and seven (after the defensive adjustments), Dobbs was 0\/6 on pass play calls and was pressured on four of those six play calls. His one vertical attempt at the half was a bad miss.<\/p>\n