{"id":66900,"date":"2024-10-25T11:00:27","date_gmt":"2024-10-25T15:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/?p=66900"},"modified":"2024-10-24T12:05:48","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T16:05:48","slug":"getting-you-set-washington-at-indiana-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/2024\/10\/25\/getting-you-set-washington-at-indiana-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Getting You Set: Washington at Indiana, Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

Washington and Indiana are two programs that consist of revamped coaching staffs and dozens of new players. But the first half of their 2024 seasons have gone differently. The Hoosiers are 7-0 and ranked 13th in the latest AP Poll. The Huskies have a top-10 victory over Michigan on their resume but have slid to 4-3 on the season with three losses away from Husky Stadium.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the big differences between the situations was the timing of Curt Cignetti\u2019s hiring at Indiana. He took over on November 30th of last season. As such, he was able to utilize the Winter transfer portal to bring 13 starters and many others to Bloomington. Spring ball consisted of a nearly complete roster for Cignetti. Jedd Fisch was hired on January 14th, 12 days after the Winter portal closed. Washington\u2019s roster wasn\u2019t complete until mid-summer. Fisch praised Cignetti this week in his ability to build his program, \u201cAll together I think [Cignetti\u2019s] really been able to get that culture going quickly.\u201d So quick, that ESPN\u2019s College Gameday is in Bloomington, Indiana to feature Cignetti\u2019s undefeated Hoosiers and the Washington Huskies.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Opponent<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Kurtis Rourke<\/a>\u00a0established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country through the first half of the season. But he\u2019ll be sidelined on Saturday with a thumb injury he suffered last week against Nebraska. Instead, Tayven Jackson<\/a> will be directing the offense at quarterback for the Hoosiers. The redshirt sophomore has played in four games this season, completing 12 of 18 passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The change at quarterback is notable. But the efficiency of the Hoosier offense is unlikely to be shaken. Seven different wide receivers have caught a touchdown pass this season for Indiana. Ke\u2019Shawn Williams<\/a> leads the group with four touchdowns, and Elijah Sarratt<\/a> has a team-high 578 receiving yards. The offense averages about 28 passing attempts per game (84th nationally) for 10.8 yards per attempt (3rd nationally). Indiana\u2019s passing game is efficient with a lot of options at its disposal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indiana actually attacks the ground at a much higher rate. It averages 38 runs per game and about 5.3 yards per carry. With options like the receiving corps, Indiana has had four different running backs score at least two touchdowns this season. Justice Ellison<\/a> and Ty Son Lawton<\/a> have eight each, and Elijah Green<\/a> has five. The diversity of options in its play distribution has allowed Indiana to pick apart defenses in several different directions while maintaining efficiency.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hoosier Drive Efficiency<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Indiana is a team that capitalizes quickly<\/a>. It\u2019s not necessarily one that runs with lightning tempo. Instead, the Hoosiers have been able to move the ball down the field in very few plays. Last week against Nebraska, Indiana scored eight touchdowns. Those drives averaged five plays, 55 yards, and just 2:27 of game clock. In the last three games against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Maryland, Indiana\u2019s touchdown drives lasted an average of just 6.5 plays, 62 yards, and three minutes of clock.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Their ability to move the ball down the length of the field this season has been among the best in the nation. In those same three previous games, Indiana scored ten touchdowns on drives of 74 yards or greater. On the season, the Hoosiers rank first nationally in available yards percentage. The team has gained 72.4% of their total possible yards on offense this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A Test on Defense<\/strong><\/h3>\n

One of the focuses for Fisch and Washington during the bye week was evaluating its run defense. The Huskies are middle-of-the-road in terms of rush defense, allowing 143 yards per game. Opposing teams have had a 40.8% success rate while running the ball on this defense (80th nationally). Against Iowa\u2019s run game, Washington gave up eight runs of 10-plus yards and posted a stop rate of just 10%. Indiana\u2019s run game is nearly as efficient, averaging just eight fewer rush yards per game than Iowa.<\/span><\/p>\n

As such, it will be a similar test for the front seven on Saturday. Missed tackles last week allowed Iowa to break away<\/a> with its run game. The Hoosiers can do similar damage but with multiple different running backs. But Washington will get some production back on the field this weekend at Indiana. Zach Durfee<\/a> is expected to be back on the defensive front. The EDGE rusher has not played since the Michigan win three weeks ago. He has 10 quarterback pressures on the year with 2.5 sacks. He and Sebastian Valdez<\/a> each have 3.5 tackles for loss this season.<\/p>\n

At the other EDGE spot, Isaiah Ward<\/a> has not started a game since Eastern Michigan in September. He’s played in all seven this year, but coming off the bench in the previous five games. The run-heavy opponents of late have been a reason for Ward playing more off the bench, as Fisch sees his strengths as a pass-rusher. Ward has nine quarterback pressures this season and a team-high three sacks and five tackles for loss. He could see an uptick in his production with the passing capabilities of Indiana.<\/p>\n

Combining Tempo and Points<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In a matchup like this, Washington\u2019s path will begin with controlling the tempo. But that doesn\u2019t necessarily equate to moving slowly. Rather, it will be vital that Washington finds a rhythm offensively, allowing it to play at their pace. Against Iowa, Washington began the game with back-to-back 14-play drives, each taking seven minutes off the clock. Its next two drives were three plays each and Iowa took a 10-point lead into the half that the Huskies couldn’t overcome. Washington’s loss at Rutgers<\/a> started similarly. Two effective drives to begin, but only three points, a three and out, and an illegal substitution led to a two-score deficit into the half.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In wins against Northwestern<\/a> and Michigan<\/a>, Washington began the game with touchdowns on two of its first four drives. The early scores set the tempo for the game where the Huskies could maintain rhythm. The losses against Iowa and Rutgers featured tempo-establishing drives to begin the game. But failure to capitalize meant failure to maintain rhythm. On Saturday at Indiana, Washington needs a combination. Control the tempo with sustainable early drives, and capitalize with touchdowns such that the offense can establish a rhythm.<\/p>\n

Predicting Washington at Indiana<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Washington has yet to win a game outside of Husky Stadium this season. Its most recent loss was inside Kinnick Stadium for what was a nine o\u2019clock Pacific Time kickoff. Saturday in Bloomington, it\u2019s another early game. \u201cIt\u2019s harder than maybe any of us wanted to give it credit for early on,\u201d Fisch said this week, speaking of the multiple time zone travel requirements. Fisch said the wake-up call for a noon Eastern game is 4:30 am body time for the Huskies. To combat this, Fisch is changing things up for the trip to Bloomington. \u201cWe\u2019re taking a total different approach in terms of what our schedule looks like this week,\u201d Fisch said. \u201cI didn\u2019t do a good enough job getting our team ready for the physical demand of the travel to Iowa.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indiana – 37<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington – 27<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Indiana
Photo courtesy: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washington and Indiana are two programs that consist of revamped coaching staffs and dozens of new players. But the first half of their 2024 seasons have gone differently. The Hoosiers are 7-0 and ranked 13th in the latest AP Poll. The Huskies have a top-10 victory over Michigan on their resume but have slid to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3944,"featured_media":66956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[487,5144,641,1666,509],"class_list":["post-66900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-bigten","tag-college-gameday","tag-curt-cignetti","tag-indiana-hoosiers","tag-jedd-fisch","tag-washington-huskies"],"modified_by":"Tony Siracusa, CFB Managing Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3944"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66900\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}