{"id":3841,"date":"2016-11-16T10:29:51","date_gmt":"2016-11-16T15:29:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordoncollegefootball.com\/?p=3841"},"modified":"2017-12-30T16:18:15","modified_gmt":"2017-12-30T21:18:15","slug":"lwos-bowl-projections-week-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/2016\/11\/16\/lwos-bowl-projections-week-11\/","title":{"rendered":"LWOS Bowl Projections Week 11"},"content":{"rendered":"

After an unprecedented Saturday of upsets at the top of the polls, the playoff picture has shifted… slightly. One conference appears to be on the path to landing two teams in the\u00a0College\u00a0football Playoff<\/strong>. Which<\/em> conference will be determined over the next few weeks. Here’s how I see it playing out with the LWOS Bowl Projections Week 11.<\/p>\n

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
\n<\/strong>CFP Semifinal
\n#1 Alabama vs. #4 Wisconsin<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fiesta Bowl
\n<\/strong>CFP Semifinal
\n#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson<\/strong><\/p>\n

National Championship Game
\n#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ohio State benefitted from the chaos up top in the rankings<\/a>\u00a0last week. The Buckeyes can win out, yet not win their own division. Penn State<\/strong> can potentially meet Wisconsin in the Big Ten<\/strong> title game.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where Wisconsin enters the playoff picture. Ohio State can stay ahead of the Badgers given that they already beat Wisconsin on the road.<\/p>\n

Ohio State’s playoff resume would be boosted with a\u00a0win over Michigan.\u00a0<\/strong>The Buckeyes are up to number two in the new CFP Poll<\/a>. They have some leeway beneath them, with two spots separating them from the CFP and a New Year’s Six Bowl.<\/p>\n

The CFP committee must continue to show they value conference championships. Which is why Clemson is in, as I see them winning the ACC<\/strong> title over whoever comes out of the Coastal Division<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

If Clemson falls, Louisville<\/strong> slides right in as another one-loss, second place division team.<\/p>\n

Alabama is in, no matter what.<\/p>\n

New Years Six Bowls<\/u><\/p>\n

Rose Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. Pac-12
\nMichigan vs. USC<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sugar Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. SEC
\nOklahoma vs. Tennessee<\/strong><\/p>\n

Capital One Orange Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. Big Ten
\nLouisville vs. Penn State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
\n<\/strong>At Large vs. At Large
\nWashington vs. Western Michigan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Explanation<\/em><\/p>\n

I see USC winning the Pac-12 outright over Washington State<\/strong>, earning a Rose Bowl bid. This would mean Washington State took the Apple Cup <\/strong>from Washington, leaving the Huskies with two losses and no conference title game.<\/p>\n

At 10 \u2013 2, Washington would be a good candidate to land an at large berth in the Cotton Bowl.<\/p>\n

Their opponent will be the Group of Five <\/strong>champion who finishes highest in the CFP poll. I still project MAC<\/strong> champ Western Michigan, who lands in at 13 \u2013 0.<\/p>\n

Currently, Boise State<\/strong> ranks ahead of Western Michigan. If WMU can actually go undefeated, they will likely jump a one-loss Boise State.<\/p>\n

South Florida<\/strong>, Troy<\/strong>, and San Diego State <\/strong>must also be in contention for the Group of Five <\/strong>slot in the New Year\u2019s Six. Troy\u2019s loss to Clemson is shaping up to be a quality showing for the presumptive Sun Belt<\/strong> champions.<\/p>\n

If one conference does produce two playoff teams, Oklahoma will settle for a Sugar Bowl appearance. The Sooners can finish 10 \u2013 2, but won\u2019t have a signature Big 12 title game win. Clemson and Wisconsin would have this notch in their belt that Oklahoma lacks.<\/p>\n

Bowl Season Projections<\/u><\/p>\n

Outback Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. SEC
\nNebraska vs. Texas A&M<\/strong><\/p>\n

TaxSlayer Bowl
\n<\/strong>SEC vs. ACC\/Big Ten\/Notre Dame
\nArkansas vs. Georgia Tech\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
\n<\/strong>SEC vs. ACC\/Big Ten\/Notre Dame
\nAuburn vs. Florida State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC\/Big Ten vs. SEC
\nIowa vs. Florida<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hyundai Sun Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC\/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
\nUNC vs. Utah<\/strong><\/p>\n

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. SEC
\nTCU vs. Georgia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Arizona Bowl
\n<\/strong>Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
\nNew Mexico vs. Idaho <\/strong><\/p>\n

Valero Alamo Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. Pac-12
\nOklahoma State vs. Washington State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Belk Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. SEC
\nWake Forest vs. Kentucky<\/strong><\/p>\n

Birmingham Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. SEC
\nTulsa vs. Ole Miss<\/strong><\/p>\n

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. SEC
\nTexas vs. LSU<\/strong><\/p>\n

Foster Farms Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. Pac-12
\nIndiana vs. Stanford<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russell Athletic Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. Big 12
\nVirginia Tech vs. West Virginia<\/strong><\/p>\n

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC\/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
\nPitt vs. Northwestern <\/strong><\/p>\n

Cactus Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. Pac-12
\nBaylor vs. California <\/strong><\/p>\n

Holiday Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. Pac-12
\nMinnesota vs. Colorado<\/strong><\/p>\n

Military Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. ACC
\nMemphis vs. Miami (FL)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zaxby\u2019s Heart of Dallas Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. C-USA
\nTexas Tech * vs. UT San Antonio<\/strong><\/p>\n

Camping World Independence Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. SEC
\nBoston College ** vs. South Carolina<\/strong><\/p>\n

Quick Lane Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. Big Ten
\nArmy * (**) vs. Maryland<\/strong><\/p>\n

St. Petersburg Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. ACC
\nSouth Florida vs. Duke **<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hawai\u2019i Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. Mountain West
\nOld Dominion vs. Air Force<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar General Bowl
\n<\/strong>MAC vs. Sun Belt
\nToledo vs. Troy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. Big 12
\nNavy vs. Kansas State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. MAC
\nSouthern Mississippi vs. Ohio<\/strong><\/p>\n

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
\n<\/strong>MAC vs. Mountain West
\nCentral Michigan vs. Wyoming<\/strong><\/p>\n

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
\n<\/strong>BYU vs. Mountain West
\nBYU vs. Colorado State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. C-USA
\nTemple vs. Western Kentucky<\/strong><\/p>\n

Miami Beach Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. MAC
\nHouston vs. Eastern Michigan<\/strong><\/p>\n

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. Sun Belt
\nMiddle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State<\/strong><\/p>\n

AutoNation Cure Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. Sun Belt
\nCentral Florida vs. South Alabama<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
\n<\/strong>MAC vs. Sun Belt
\nMiami (OH) vs. Arkansas State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Las Vegas Bowl
\n<\/strong>Mountain West vs. Pac-12
\nSan Diego State vs. Arizona State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. Mountain West
\nLouisiana Tech vs. Boise State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Explanation<\/em><\/p>\n

There may be more ACC Academic Progress Rate<\/strong>\u00a0(APR) bids with Duke. If they can scratch out a 5th<\/sup> win at Pitt or at Miami, their APR can give them a bowl bid.<\/p>\n

If the ACC gets two teams into the playoff, they will lack teams for their bottom tier bowls. For now, I have 5 \u2013 7 teams in both bowls due to APR.<\/p>\n

If Clemson and Louisville are in the playoff, Florida State will slide into the Orange. This would bump all the teams up a notch, with a 5 \u2013 7 MAC or AAC school taking their place if no more .500 teams are available.<\/p>\n

*<\/strong> = Replacement team
\n**<\/strong> = APR waiver<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After an unprecedented Saturday of upsets at the top of the polls, the playoff picture has shifted… slightly. One conference appears to be on the path to landing two teams in the\u00a0College\u00a0football Playoff. Which conference will be determined over the next few weeks. Here’s how I see it playing out with the LWOS Bowl Projections […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1048,"featured_media":2438,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,8],"tags":[35,1145,300,536,40,73],"class_list":["post-3841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-fbs","tag-alabama-crimson-tide","tag-bowl-games","tag-bowl-projections","tag-bowl-season","tag-college-football-playoff","tag-ohio-state-buckeyes"],"modified_by":"Tony Siracusa, CFB Managing Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1048"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3841\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2438"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}