We started our coverage of the 2019 West Virginia Mountaineers with an offensive wishlist<\/a>, a defensive wishlist<\/a>, our top five defensive surprises<\/a>, and our top five offensive surprises<\/a>. \u00a0In between those, we discussed how Head Coach Neal Brown<\/strong><\/a> is building a blue-collar team in Morgantown<\/a>. \u00a0But as the season inches closer, we wonder how all of this will play out on the gridiron. \u00a0As we’ve discussed, the Mountaineers have been managing expectations<\/a> all off-season. \u00a0And while it’s certainly worthwhile to enter this season with patience given the coaching transition and the resulting attrition, we still present our three bold predictions for the Mountaineers in 2019.<\/p>\n Last season, we predicted that the defense would end the season as a top 30 unit<\/a>. \u00a0And this prediction rang true until the final two games of the season. \u00a0But with attrition on the unit, particularly with off-season transfers that significantly weakened the team’s safety depth, surely we wouldn’t double down on the prediction, would we? \u00a0In fact, we are. \u00a0After all, these are\u00a0bold<\/strong> predictions.<\/p>\n But there’s good reason why. \u00a0First, the days of the 3-3-5 are gone. \u00a0Vic Koenning<\/strong><\/a> replaces Tony Gibson<\/strong> to lead the defense. \u00a0And Koenning brings with him the 4-2-5. \u00a0If the scheme sounds familiar, it is because TCU has run it for years. \u00a0Even Nick Saban<\/a> uses the set frequently when facing spread offenses. \u00a0TCU has finished seven of the last ten seasons with a top-40 scoring defense. \u00a0And they have finished three of those seasons with a top-ten scoring defense. \u00a0Pretty impressive track record for a team that faces high-flying offenses on a weekly basis.<\/p>\n And then there’s Koenning’s own defensive prowess. \u00a0Since 2005, Koenning served as Defensive Coordinator for Clemson (between 2005 and 2008), Illinois (between 2010 and 2011), and Troy (between 2015 and 2018). \u00a0In those ten seasons when he led the defense, his unit finished as a top-30 scoring defense eight times. \u00a0And his units finished as a top-15 scoring defense five of those eight seasons.<\/p>\n Koenning has undoubtedly maximized the potential of his defensive players, and he has done so quickly. Clemson’s defense improved from 31st to the 11th ranked scoring defense in his first season there. \u00a0When Bill Snyder hired him as co-coordinator for the 2009 season, the Wildcats improved from the 118th to the 38th ranked scoring defense in one season. \u00a0In his first season at Illinois, the Illini defense jumped from 96th to 48th in scoring defense. \u00a0And the Trojans jumped from 113th to 78th in his first season with Coach Brown.<\/p>\n There’s little reason to believe that trend will not continue, even considering the change in philosophy and the attrition at the safety spots this offseason. \u00a0The staff glows when talking about the defensive line. \u00a0Koenning has a three-deep up front. \u00a0And he has never been afraid to bring pressure. \u00a0Koenning will also rotate at least two-deep everywhere else on the field, too.<\/p>\n Fortunately, he has talent at all of those positions, even if some of it is unproven. \u00a0Reese Donahue<\/strong><\/a>, Dante Stills<\/strong>, and Darius Stills<\/strong><\/a> return on the defensive line. \u00a0Dylan Tonkery<\/strong><\/a>, Shea Campbell<\/strong><\/a>, Josh Chandler<\/strong><\/a>, and Jovanni Stewart<\/strong><\/a> return at linebacker. \u00a0Keith Washington<\/strong><\/a> and Hakeem Bailey<\/strong><\/a> return at the cornerback spots. \u00a0And Josh Norwood<\/strong><\/a> returns to the secondary, after moving from cornerback to safety. \u00a0Koenning adds several promising newcomers to that list as well. \u00a0In short, the talent is there for Koenning to develop.<\/p>\n Regardless of circumstance, the last four jobs Koenning has taken, his defensive units have improved drastically in just their first season. On average, those units improve by 46 spots in terms of scoring defense. \u00a0Considering the Mountaineers finished 2018 ranked 67th in scoring defense, even a modest improvement brings them well within the top 50. \u00a0But we predict a more drastic improvement. \u00a0Indeed, the first of our three bold predictions is that West Virginia’s defense will finish as a top-30 unit in 2019.<\/p>\n Mountaineer fans and insiders have expressed doubts about West Virginia’s offensive line for months. \u00a0The unit could have performed much better last season as it was. \u00a0And now it’s down three big performers. \u00a0Joe Brown<\/strong><\/a> is gone. \u00a0The New England Patriots drafted Yodny Cajuste<\/a><\/strong>. \u00a0And Matt Jones<\/strong><\/a> transferred to Youngstown State.<\/p>\n But all is not lost. \u00a0Both Colton McKivitz<\/strong><\/a> and Josh Sills<\/strong><\/a> appear on the Outland Trophy preseason watch list. \u00a0Michael Brown<\/strong><\/a> is improving daily. \u00a0As is Kelby Wickline<\/strong><\/a>. \u00a0Four of five of those lineman are solid. \u00a0And Offensive Line coach Matt Moore<\/strong> has an outstanding track record at developing linemen quickly. \u00a0So whether the next four linemen consist of Chase Behrndt<\/strong><\/a>, Adam Stilley<\/strong><\/a>, Junior Uzebu<\/strong><\/a>, John Hughes<\/strong>, James Gmiter<\/strong><\/a>, or others, we’d bet that the starting five, and the next two to three show Mountaineer fans a much more fundamentally sound and gritty unit than they have witnessed the past few seasons.<\/p>\n The extra second such an improved line can buy the quarterbacks increases efficiency. \u00a0The extra push and pull the guards and tackles can provide will give the Mountaineers’ versatile and experienced group of runnings backs the extra inches they need to explode into the second level. \u00a0In short, the offensive line will, as is generally the case, make or break this offense. \u00a0And it hasn’t been often that an offensive line coached by Matt Moore has broken.<\/p>\n As a result, we predict that West Virginia’s offensive line will show vast improvement throughout the season. \u00a0It can, of course, be hard to measure the impact of an offensive line statistically (without advanced stats anyway). \u00a0That said, we predict that the improvement will show up in two ways. \u00a0First, the Mountaineers’ yard per carry average will rise from 4.5 in 2018 to 4.8 or better in 2019. \u00a0Second, the number of sacks surrendered by the line will decrease from 28 in 2018 to 25 or fewer in 2019.<\/p>\n Expectations for the Mountaineers range from three to six wins. \u00a0Vegas has set the over\/under at five, and West Virginia is only a single-score favorite over visiting James Madison to open the season. \u00a0Many would be surprised to see the Mountaineers clinch a bowl game in the first instance. \u00a0And given that West Virginia has lost three straight bowl games, and five of their last six, even more would be surprised if West Virginia actually won their bowl game this season.<\/p>\n But the Mountaineers will likely be better than most think. \u00a0So six wins remains a realistic target for this squad. \u00a0Brown and staff pulled out all the stops to fill holes on the roster all the way through the Summer. \u00a0And they are working hard to build the blue-collar, team-first mentality Brown prefers. \u00a0That blue-collar mentality won’t just stop at the end of the regular season. \u00a0So we can expect the uninspired bowl game performances of the Holgorsen era to cease. \u00a0As a result, we predict the Mountaineers will not only clinch a bowl berth but also win their bowl game in 2019.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Three Bold Predictions for Mountaineers in 2019 We started our coverage of the 2019 West Virginia Mountaineers with an offensive wishlist, a defensive wishlist, our top five defensive surprises, and our top five offensive surprises. \u00a0In between those, we discussed how Head Coach Neal Brown is building a blue-collar team in Morgantown. \u00a0But as the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2744,"featured_media":21230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[5073,3393,5055,5068,4952,5076,5056,5071,5063,5072,1712,5069,3650,237],"class_list":["post-22909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-big12","tag-chase-behinds","tag-dante-stills","tag-darius-stills","tag-dylan-tonkery","tag-hakeem-bailey","tag-james-gmiter","tag-josh-chandler","tag-josh-norwood","tag-josh-sills","tag-kleby-wickline","tag-neal-brown","tag-shea-campbell","tag-west-virginia-football","tag-west-virginia-mountaineers"],"modified_by":"Tony Siracusa, CFB Managing Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2744"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}The Defense Performs<\/h3>\n
The 4-2-5<\/h3>\n
Koenning’s Background<\/h3>\n
Returning and Emerging Talent<\/h3>\n
The Prediction<\/h3>\n
The Offensive Line Performs<\/h3>\n
The Mountaineers Win A Bowl Game<\/h3>\n