{"id":1296,"date":"2016-09-23T09:31:45","date_gmt":"2016-09-23T13:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordoncollegefootball.com\/?p=1296"},"modified":"2017-05-23T15:03:47","modified_gmt":"2017-05-23T19:03:47","slug":"bowl-projections-week-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/collegefootball\/2016\/09\/23\/bowl-projections-week-3\/","title":{"rendered":"LWOS Bowl Projections: Week 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Word on Sports Bowl Projections: Week 3<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Week 3 gave us more clarity on the front runners in the Power Five conferences.\u00a0Louisville\u00a0<\/strong>moved up in the rankings<\/a>, while\u00a0Florida State\u00a0<\/strong>fell out of the Top 10. With more conference games looming this weekend, here are my bowl projections after Week 3.<\/p>\n

College Football Playoff<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
\n<\/strong>CFP Semifinal
\n#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fiesta Bowl
\n<\/strong>CFP Semifinal
\n#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Louisville<\/strong><\/p>\n

National Championship Game
\n#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State<\/strong><\/p>\n

I decided to move one of the Big Ten<\/strong> teams out of the College Football Playoff. Michigan<\/strong> played their first true test in Colorado (after pasting Hawai\u2019I and UCF to open the season) and trailed 21 –\u00a07 in the first quarter before their defense took a hold of the game.<\/p>\n

Originally, I thought the Big Ten would get two teams in the playoff with Ohio State going 13 \u2013 0, and Michigan finishing 11 \u2013 1. I didn\u2019t want to move the Buckeyes or Wolverines out until they lost to a team that wasn\u2019t the other.<\/p>\n

Ohio State is looking like a true playoff team, while Michigan doesn\u2019t have a signature win like Ohio State\u2019s win at Oklahoma<\/strong>. Michigan doesn\u2019t leave The Big House until October 8, and doesn\u2019t have a true test until Week 5 versus Wisconsin<\/strong>. The Wolverines final road games at Michigan State<\/strong>, Iowa<\/strong>, and Ohio State may spell doom for my one loss theory.<\/p>\n

The Big 12 has played itself into mediocrity in the early session of the season. Ohio State dominated Oklahoma<\/strong> in Norman, while the California Golden Bears<\/strong> outlasted the Texas Longhorns<\/strong> in Berkeley.<\/p>\n

Baylor<\/strong> and West Virginia<\/strong> are the lone unbeatens in the Big 12, and with the nature of the defenses across the board in the conference, one can\u2019t have confidence in either team to run the table and give the Big 12 a real shot at the playoff.<\/p>\n

The big winner of Week 3 was Louisville. I moved them into the New Year\u2019s Six Bowls last week, and now they jump all the way up to the three seed in my CFP picks. Their games at Clemson<\/strong> and Houston<\/strong> are shaping into Round of 32 and Sweet 16 games, respectively, if one were to equate this to March Madness.<\/p>\n

If they win those two games and their presumptive wins hold sway, Louisville can play in the ACC Championship Game in a de facto quarterfinal. Miami<\/strong>, Pitt<\/strong>, and North<\/strong> Carolina<\/strong> appear to be in the driver\u2019s seat to challenge from the ACC Coastal Division.<\/p>\n

Louisville quarterback Lamar<\/strong> Jackson<\/strong> is running away with the Heisman Trophy as of now, and his domination of perennial power Florida State has vaulted the Cardinals into national title contention.<\/p>\n

Washington makes their first appearance in my CFP predictions, giving the Pac-12 a new representative. We can\u2019t glean much from the Huskies\u2019 obliteration of Rutgers<\/strong>, Idaho<\/strong>, and Portland<\/strong> State<\/strong>. An elite team should make quick work of those teams, and the Huskies did, all at Husky Stadium. Washington opens Pac-12 play at Arizona<\/strong> next weekend.<\/p>\n

Even this game may not give us any more of an inclination as to how good the Huskies truly are. The Wildcats are a step up, but haven\u2019t impressed in getting to 2 \u2013 1 on the season.<\/p>\n

Friday, September 30 in Seattle versus Stanford<\/strong> will determine which Pac-12 North team has the fast track to the CFP. Stanford will be more battle tested, but the Cardinal can\u2019t become one-dimensional on the road in a very hostile environment.<\/p>\n

New Years Six Bowls<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Rose Bowl
\nMichigan State vs. Stanford<\/strong><\/p>\n

Allstate Sugar Bowl
\nOklahoma vs. Texas A&M<\/strong><\/p>\n

Capital One Orange Bowl
\nFlorida State vs. Michigan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
\nClemson vs. Houston <\/strong><\/p>\n

With Washington and Ohio State in my final four, I\u2019ve got Stanford and Michigan State meeting in the Rose Bowl as replacements.<\/p>\n

I still have Oklahoma winning the Big 12, and with Alabama in the CFP, Texas A&M and its stout defense gets the nod for the SEC in the Sugar Bowl.<\/p>\n

Florida State takes Louisville\u2019s place as the top ACC team in the Orange Bowl, with Michigan getting the Big Ten\u2019s spot. Notre Dame <\/strong>occupied this spot until they dropped game two at home versus Michigan State.<\/p>\n

The Cotton Bowl pits two at large teams, likely the highest ranked Group of Five champion. If Houston can\u2019t stop Louisville, they can still win the AAC and end up in the Cotton. Clemson\u2019s offense has struggled at the outset, but their defense makes them a dangerous team and a good bet to give the ACC three teams in the New Year\u2019s Six.<\/p>\n

Bowl Season Projections<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Outback Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. SEC
\nPenn State vs. Tennessee<\/strong><\/p>\n

TaxSlayer Bowl
\n<\/strong>SEC vs. ACC\/Big Ten\/Notre Dame
\nOle Miss vs. Notre Dame\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
\n<\/strong>SEC vs. ACC\/Big Ten\/Notre Dame
\nFlorida vs. Nebraska<\/strong><\/p>\n

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC\/Big Ten vs. SEC
\nWisconsin vs. Arkansas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hyundai Sun Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC\/Notre Dame vs. PAC-12
\nNorth Carolina vs. Utah<\/strong><\/p>\n

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. SEC
\nOklahoma State vs. Georgia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Arizona Bowl
\n<\/strong>Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
\nNevada vs. Troy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Valero Alamo Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. PAC-12
\nTexas vs. UCLA<\/strong><\/p>\n

Belk Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. SEC
\nPitt vs. Auburn<\/strong><\/p>\n

Birmingham Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. SEC
\nTulsa vs. Missouri<\/strong><\/p>\n

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. SEC
\nBaylor vs. LSU<\/strong><\/p>\n

Foster Farms Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. Pac-12
\nIndiana vs. Oregon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russell Athletic Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. Big 12
\nMiami (FL) vs. TCU<\/strong><\/p>\n

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. Big Ten
\nVirginia Tech vs. Minnesota<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cactus Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big 12 vs. Pac-12
\nKansas State vs. Cal <\/strong><\/p>\n

Holiday Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. Pac-12
\nIowa vs. USC<\/strong><\/p>\n

Military Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. ACC
\nUConn vs. NC State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zaxby\u2019s Heart of Dallas Bowl
\n<\/strong>Big Ten vs. C-USA
\nTexas Tech * vs. Western Kentucky<\/strong><\/p>\n

Camping World Independence Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. SEC
\nGeorgia Tech vs. South Carolina<\/strong><\/p>\n

Quick Lane Bowl
\n<\/strong>ACC vs. Big Ten
\nArmy * vs. Maryland<\/strong><\/p>\n

St. Petersburg Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. ACC
\nUSF vs. Wake Forest<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hawai\u2019i Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. Mountain West
\nOld Dominion vs. Air Force<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar General Bowl
\n<\/strong>MAC vs. Sun Belt
\nWestern Michigan vs. Arkansas State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. Big 12
\nNavy vs. West Virginia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. MAC
\nSouthern Mississippi vs. Ohio<\/strong><\/p>\n

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
\n<\/strong>MAC vs. Mountain West
\nBowling Green vs. Utah State<\/strong><\/p>\n

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
\n<\/strong>BYU vs. Mountain West
\nBYU vs. San Diego State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. C-USA
\nCincinnati vs. Marshall<\/strong><\/p>\n

Miami Beach Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. MAC
\nTemple vs. Northern Illinois<\/strong><\/p>\n

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. Sun Belt
\nMiddle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State<\/strong><\/p>\n

AutoNation Cure Bowl
\n<\/strong>AAC vs. Sun Belt
\nMemphis vs. South Alabama<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
\n<\/strong>MAC vs. Sun Belt
\nCentral Michigan vs. Georgia Southern<\/strong><\/p>\n

Las Vegas Bowl
\n<\/strong>Mountain West vs. Pac-12
\nBoise State vs. Arizona State<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
\n<\/strong>C-USA vs. Mountain West
\nUTEP vs. UNLV<\/strong><\/p>\n

Welcome aboard South Carolina and Cal! The Gamecocks beat a feisty East Carolina team 20 \u2013 15 this past weekend, moving to 2 \u2013 1 on the season. South Carolina has at least three winnable games left on the slate, and will need an upset in a game in which they are underdogs.<\/p>\n

Notre Dame is the biggest fall this week, slipping down to fill an ACC slot. If the Irish go 10 \u2013 2 they can stay in the New Year\u2019s Six. With two losses already, they cannot afford to slip any further. With their defense leaking like a faucet, matchups with Stanford, Miami (FL), and even, ahem, Army, it\u2019s looking like three losses are a safe bet for the Golden Domers.<\/p>\n

The aforementioned Cal Bears enter the bowl fray in my scenario after a huge win at home over Texas. The Longhorns defense gave up 507 total yards to Cal, who in turn gave up 568 to Texas. Cal needs their six wins in a hurry, as their back half includes Washington, Stanford, and UCLA.<\/p>\n

* = Replacement team<\/p>\n

Main Photo:<\/p>\n

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Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n