Last Word asked during the week 12 Big 12 slate if some double-digit spreads were a reason to worry for some teams. It turns out that some of them did not avoid the upset bug. It was as average of a week as we could draw up as moneyline, against the spread, and the totals all went 3-3. But another lock did let us down since Kansas State’s offense went MIA. As we approach the weekend before Thanksgiving, we are gifted a full eight-game schedule of Big 12 play. So with plenty of Big 12 week 13 winners to hand out, is the glutenous nature of this upcoming week going to result in more chaos in the title game race? All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Season Totals
Against The Spread: 41-57
Totals: 51-46
Locks: 3-10
Big 12 Week 13 Winners
Arizona At TCU (-11.5)
Does Arizona (or more specifically their fans) even care about this game? A matchup between two teams without much to play for is certainly “something” to kick off the Big 12 week 13 winners. This is not the game recommended to bet on because no one can get a good read on this. TCU is a double-digit favorite while Arizona is coming off a solid win over Houston last week. But Arizona hasn’t been consistent all year. TCU is coming off a bye week and even with a bad defense, should be able to outscore Arizona to cover the big number.
#14 BYU At #21 Arizona State (-3)
Not sure why Commissioner Yormark couldn’t get any of his biggest games into a prime time slot. But this is the first game of the mid-afternoon slate that has massive Big 12 title game implications. BYU, while they were the last remaining undefeated team, has been trending in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, Kenny Dillingham’s team is coming off a signature win over Kansas State. The vibes around this Sun Devils team could not be higher right now. In what is the biggest game Tempe has hosted in the last decade, the Devils take down the Mormons on the back of a big performance by Cam Skattebo
#16 Colorado (-2.5) At Kansas
While the vibes around the Arizona State team are high, this matchup has the two hottest teams in the conference. Kansas has rounded into the team many thought we would see coming into the season. Meanwhile, Deion Sanders has his team high-stepping all over the Big 12 competition ever since their close loss to Kansas State. This should be a fun game in Arrowhead between two teams playing their best ball of the season. Points should not be hard to come by in this one. But Jalon Daniels still will be good for one or two interceptions that make the difference. The Buffalos thunder on one step closer to playing for a Big 12 title.
Texas Tech (-3.5) At Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy has given his fan base plenty to be frustrated at in 2024 and that doesn’t even include calling his fan base poor. The offseason in Stillwater will be an interesting one to follow. Texas Tech has had plenty of extreme ups and downs this year. However, Joey McGuire has made his money with outstanding results in November and December ever since he took over the Red Raider program. Expect this Texas Tech team to send an apathetic fan base home begging for the season to end. At least they will get to see plenty of points scored with two leaky defenses involved.
UCF At West Virginia (+2.5)
This prediction in our Big 12 week 13 winners is going to bring a very simple and unique analysis to the table. The forecasted weather in Morgantown for this game has a rain/snow mixture with temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s. UCF has only five players listed on their entire roster from a hometown that would not be considered the South (Georgia/Florida/Alabama/Mississippi/Texas etc.). Neal Brown’s team not only covers but wins outright in a game where both teams will run the ball and keep the clock running.
Baylor (-7.5) At Houston
Last week, Willie Fritz saw his offense revert to the non-existent unit we saw in the first month of the season. There is a good chance they should get some offensive mojo back in this one, but it won’t matter in the end. Baylor has been storming through the Big 12 since starting the season 2-4. Head coach Dave Aranda received the public vote of confidence that he would return next season last week. This is a situation where Houston isn’t talented enough to slow down a team that has bought into its coach and playing as well as it possibly can. The Bears will sit on a lead throughout this game as they cover easily and the total comes in just under the 50 points.
#22 Iowa State (-7.5) At Utah
If anyone tuning into this game is looking for offense, good luck finding it. Utah’s defense was the primary driver in the Utes scoring more than 21 for the first time since they played Utah State. Iowa State regained its form last week against Cincinnati. Thanks to BYU and Kansas State losses in week 12, the Cyclones find themselves back in the race for the Big 12. Iowa State has never won 10 games (bowl game included) in a single season. Iowa State history suggests in a cruel joke that they will lose at least one of the next two games. But Utah cannot score at all on its own. As long as Rocco Becht and company protect the football, they can cover more than the touchdown spread on the road.
Cincinnati (+8.5) At Kansas State
What has happened to Kansas State? There is very simple case to be made that they should be on a three-game losing streak right now. Chris Klieman’s team picked a bad time to do a reverse course on what was trending as a championship-type season. Cincinnati, while improved in year two under Scott Satterfield, has also been struggling as of late. They have lost three straight with two non-convincing wins before those losses. Kansas State can only stay down for so long. But the struggles of late inspire zero confidence for them to beat any competent team by more than a touchdown. The Wildcats will win the game, but the Bearcats keep it close and covers.
