North Carolina vs. Kansas NCAAB Picks: National Championship Predictions

Who will cut down the nets Monday night in New Orleans? Can North Carolina put the finishing touches on their incredible run? Will Bill Self win his second title at Kansas?

It all comes down to this. It’s the Roy Williams Bowl for the National Championship, as the two schools the legendary coach made stops at meet Monday night in New Orleans for all the marbles. It’s Kansas vs. North Carolina in the last dance.

Game Our Plays for the Final Four Where to Bet

No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 1 Kansas

North Carolina +4.5 (-115)

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No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 1 Kansas
 

Over 151.5 (-115)

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Kansas (33-6 overall, 20-18-1 ATS) had been the last remaining No. 1 seed since the start of the Elite 8 after Baylor went down in the second round and Gonzaga and Arizona bowed out on the first day of the Sweet 16. Despite all the pressure of that and the perception of faltering in March, the Jayhawks held serve and find themselves in the National Championship game for the first time since 2012 after going wire-to-wire in the Final Four against Villanova.

North Carolina (29-9 overall, 21-16-1 ATS) has put together an unbelievable run. This was a team that was squarely on the bubble in February after losing to Pittsburgh and had zero Quad 1 wins. That can now be looked at as the turning point of the season for the Tar Heels, who have since beaten Duke twice, including the epic national semifinal on Saturday. UNC can now say they beat Coach K in his final home game and ended his career in the Final Four. This should be a great game.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s NCAAB matchup between the Tar Heels and the Jayhawks. (Odds via BetMGM)

 

North Carolina vs. Kansas Game Info

Date/Time: 04/04/2022, 9:20 EDT
TV: TBS

Location: Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA

North Carolina vs. Kansas Odds Analysis

Not too much movement on the line since the matchup was set on Saturday night, which is understandable since it’s only two days between games. Kansas opened as a 4-point favorite and that line only ever moved to 4.5 points and back. 

The over/under is mostly set at 152 across the books after opening between 153 and 154, though BetMGM does have a 151.5 O/U with a -110 moneyline on the over. BetRivers has a -109 moneyline on U152.

 

North Carolina vs. Kansas Picks

North Carolina +4.5 (-115) (BetMGM)

Over 151.5 (-110) (BetMGM)

Kansas vs North Carolina

North Carolina vs. Kansas Predictions

North Carolina +4.5 (-115)

The obvious big question is the health of UNC C Armando Bacot (ankle). He is expected to play but will the injury limit him? He’s coming off 11 points and 21 rebounds in the semifinal against Duke, his second straight 20+ rebound game after grabbing 22 against Saint Peter’s. 

UNC still has plenty of playmakers in Brady Manek and Caleb Love. Them, RJ Davis and Leaky Black will all have to be at their best tonight, especially if Bacot is limited, if UNC is to beat Kansas. 

If Bacot is limited, Kansas will have a huge advantage with F David McCormick on the inside. And of course, Ochai Agabji (21 points against Villanova) will be shining bright on the biggest stage.

UNC should keep it close, but this is starting to feel like Kansas’ year to avenge having their 2020 opportunity ripped away from them due to COVID. The Jayhawks cut down the nets on Monday but we’ll take the Heels to cover.

Over 151.5 (-115)

Both offenses can score at will. North Carolina has hit 80 points in three tournament games and reached 90 in their first two, including the wild overtime win over Baylor in round two. Kansas is coming off an impressive overall performance against Villanova. Again, the key here is Bacot, but UNC still has good outside shooting and can keep pace with Kansas. Points should be plenty here and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that both teams reach 76+ to hit the over.