NFL Christmas Day Player Props: Brady Booms, Baker Busts

There are three NFL games to unwrap on Christmas Day, and we have a top player prop from each. Here are our best picks for Sunday’s games.

Raheem Mostert – Anytime touchdown scorer

The early Christmas Day game is undoubtedly the most intriguing of the trio. The resurgent Green Bay Packers head to Miami to take on the Dolphins with both teams’ postseason hopes on the line.

The Packers are clinging to a playoff dream while the Dolphins are trying to hold on to the last Wild Card spot in the AFC.

You can expect the Dolphins to give Green Bay a healthy dose of Raheem Mostert in this one. The Pack has been atrocious against the run this year (148.8, 29th). The lowest point of the season came three weeks ago against the Eagles, where they gave up an unheard-of 363 yards on the ground.

Mostert is coming off his best game of the season (136 rushing, 20 receiving) and will be licking his chops. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the speedy back get upwards of 20 carries in this one. He should be able to find paydirt on one of those totes.

Baker Mayfield –  Under 185.5 passing yards

Baker had his day in the sun a couple of weeks ago with a brilliant comeback in his first game as a Ram. He swiftly fell back to earth last week against the Packers and should be firmly planted in mediocrity again in this one.

The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league and are particularly stingy against the pass. Mayfield is coming off a lackluster 111-yard passing performance at Lambeau and should be in that ballpark once again.

Patrick Mahomes is the only QB to throw for over 200 yards against Denver in the past four games. Baker is no Patrick.

This should be an ugly game with many unders hitting along the way, including Mayfield’s passing yards.

Tom Brady – Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

We’re not used to seeing Tom Brady struggle. His 6-8 record for the Bucs this season is the worst of his career. The only other time Brady has had a losing record was his rookie season when he played just one game and lost.

But the good news is that Tampa is somehow still in first place in the NFC South.

Brady looked as good as he had all year in the first half against Cincinnati last week. Unfortunately, the wheels game off in the final two quarters, with him turning the ball over four times. He’ll have a chance for redemption in the desert against a Cardinals team that has given up the most points in the league (26.6).

The Panthers, Saints, and Falcons are all 5-8 and breathing down the Bucs’ neck for the division lead. If Tom is going to get it right this season, this is the game he’ll do it in.