{"id":32728,"date":"2020-08-20T16:18:10","date_gmt":"2020-08-20T20:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonprobasketball.com\/?p=32728"},"modified":"2020-08-20T16:18:10","modified_gmt":"2020-08-20T20:18:10","slug":"iowa-hawkeyes-likely-to-bow-out-early","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2020\/08\/20\/iowa-hawkeyes-likely-to-bow-out-early\/","title":{"rendered":"Iowa Hawkeyes Likely to Bow Out Early"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is a strong chance that we will see the Iowa Hawkeyes bow out early this season despite the return of\u00a0 <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/luka-garza-1.html?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Luka Garza<\/a><\/strong>. The return of presumed Preseason National Player of the Year, Garza, has raised expectations for a Hawkeye basketball program that is normally overshadowed by the school&#8217;s more successful football program.\u00a0 This news established Iowa as a borderline top 10 team in 2020-21.\u00a0 The Hawkeyes odds to win the NCAA Tournament currently sit at 25-1 (10th best nationally). Iowa has more pizzazz than just about any Big Ten team in recent memory, ranking 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency last year and averaging 77.7 points per game. Even with this firepower, I am hesitant to anoint them as a true National Championship contender.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #111111; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 27px;\"><b>NCAA Tournament Futures: Iowa Hawkeyes Likely to Bow Out Early<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><b>In Defense of Defense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>Iowa\u2019s fatal flaw looks to be on the defensive end of the court, where they ranked 97<sup>th<\/sup> nationally last year. This is not a problem that is likely to be remedied this season, either.\u00a0 Coach <strong>Fran McCaffrey<\/strong>&#8216;s teams have ranked outside of the top 90 defensively for four consecutive seasons and return largely the same roster as last season. These types of drastic offensive and defensive splits have historically been a kiss of death for teams in the tournament.\u00a0 In fact, let\u2019s do a quick case study on how teams that have finished in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency have done in the tournament in recent years:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2018: (4) Wichita St lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round, (6) TCU lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round, (7) Nevada lost in Sweet 16<\/li>\n<li>2017: (10) Oklahoma St. lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round, (10) Marquette lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round, (11) Wake Forest Lost in 1st round<\/li>\n<li>2016: (6) Notre Dame lost in Elite 8, (4) Iowa St lost in Sweet 16<\/li>\n<li>2015: (3) Notre Dame lost in Elite 8, (11) BYU lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round, (10) Davidson lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round, (10) Indiana lost in 1<sup>st<\/sup> round<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>What Does it Mean?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>The data suggests that teams fitting Iowa\u2019s profile are more likely to bow out in the first round than to even make the Final Four, let alone win the whole thing.\u00a0 Also, notice the seeding of these teams.\u00a0 None of them even came in on the top two seed lines. However,\u00a0 the odds imply that the Hawkeyes are projected to enter the tournament as a two or three seed. Something doesn&#8217;t add up here.\u00a0 The only conclusion I can come up with is that Iowa\u2019s offensive prowess and that appeal of Luka Garza could drive casual bettors to like Iowa.<\/p>\n<h3><b>Iowa Hawkeye Road Woes<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>Additionally, the Hawkeyes have performed poorly in the road and neutral-site games under McCaffrey.\u00a0 The Hawkeyes have won just 8 true road games over the past three seasons.\u00a0 They failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.6 points in road games last year.\u00a0 Also, the best road win on the Hawkeye&#8217;s resume was against Minnesota, who wouldn&#8217;t have even qualified for the Big Dance.\u00a0 To win an NCAA Tournament, it is mandatory that a team is able to perform when outside of friendly confines and the Hawkeyes haven&#8217;t shown the ability to do that in recent years.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Analysis: Iowa Hawkeyes Bow Out Early<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The odds on the Hawkeyes look more like that of a proven team with postseason experience, which they are not. The lack of defensive prowess and the inability to win in hostile environments are the two factors that will hold this team back in March. The Hawkeyes should light up the scoreboard and provide plenty of entertainment this season.\u00a0 Unfortunately, this won&#8217;t culminate in Garza cutting down the nets in Indianapolis as there is too much working towards the Iowa Hawkeyes bowing out early.<\/p>\n<p>Main Photo:<br \/>\n<a id=\"NEaVOmcgRxVkEgjuaCc5Ow\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1206523780\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'NEaVOmcgRxVkEgjuaCc5Ow',sig:'zeAZeOIVwUulfE6vAOJyq96T1SeWwcBCj-r-2SKMDGI=',w:'594px',h:'397px',items:'1206523780',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iowa Hawkeyes bow out early&#8230;despite return of Luka Garza&#8230;lack of defensive prowess and inability to win in hostile enviroments&#8230;hold this team back<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3600,"featured_media":32915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[773,1608],"tags":[65,2548,3041,832],"class_list":["post-32728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-basketball","category-basketball","tag-basketball","tag-iowa-hawkeyes","tag-luka-garza","tag-ncaa-tournament"],"modified_by":"David Ward, Associate Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3600"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32728\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}