{"id":198937,"date":"2026-06-04T14:34:47","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T18:34:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/?p=198937"},"modified":"2026-06-04T14:34:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T18:34:47","slug":"chet-holmgren-drop-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2026\/06\/04\/chet-holmgren-drop-off\/","title":{"rendered":"Making Sense Of Chet Holmgren’s Drop-Off And What It Means For The Oklahoma City Thunder"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals<\/a> against the San Antonio Spurs. The season is on the line. The homecourt atmosphere for the Oklahoma City Thunder is electric, and the pressure for the team to reach dynastic status<\/a> is immense. Chet Holmgren<\/a>, Oklahoma City’s cornerstone big man, takes the court for a crucial 33 minutes. He records exactly two shots.<\/p>\n

Making Sense Of Chet Holmgren’s Drop-Off And What It Means For The Oklahoma City Thunder<\/h2>\n

For the Thunder, Holmgren’s gradual disappearance in the Western Conference Finals translated into an immediate wave of panic. When a core piece of the franchise’s present and future goes unnoticed while logging solid minutes, the noise gets loud fast. However, before the basketball world completely rewrites the narrative, labeling him a postseason liability, we need to press rewind and determine what actually happened.<\/p>\n

Though the “choking under pressure” storyline is great for television, that is not what happened. Holmgren dismantled the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers in the first two rounds. Instead, his troubles against the Spurs reflect San Antonio’s high-level defensive scheming and a glaring issue with the Thunder’s current offensive construction.<\/p>\n

The panic level is high and justifiable. However, is it for the right reasons?<\/p>\n

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A Playoff Jekyll And Hyde<\/h3>\n

During the regular season, Holmgren served as a consistent contributor. Averaging 16.8 points on 12.1 field goals per game, while recording 8.6 rebounds each contest, he served as a reliable and involved piece to Oklahoma City’s puzzle.<\/p>\n

When the playoffs began, his production actually increased. Across the first two rounds, Holmgren improved his points per game to 18.3 on 11.8 attempts. Shooting 59.6% from the field, demonstrating efficiency and primary option effectiveness.<\/p>\n

Then the Spurs series began.<\/p>\n

Over that crucial seven-game series, his scoring swan-dove to 10.7 points a night. Even though the drop in scoring proved catastrophic, it was not the most glaring statistic. What stood out most was Holmgren’s shot volume. Averaging 7.1 shot attempts per game in the Western Conference Finals, his usage rate completely crumbled. According to Cleaning the Glass<\/a>, his Game 1 usage sat at 9.1%. By Game 7, it cratered to 7.9%.<\/p>\n

Holmgren did not suddenly forget how to shoot. Against the Spurs, he still shot 52% from the field. In reality, he stopped getting the ball. Obviously, a player cannot impact the game offensively if he is completely erased from the shooting equation.<\/p>\n

In that case, the real question does not surround why he missed shots. Instead, Holmgren’s struggles revolve around why he stopped taking shots altogether.<\/p>\n

Schematic Stagnation<\/h3>\n

When an opposing defense shuts down a team’s primary weapon, we tend to place immediate and total blame on the player. However, it is the coaching staff’s responsibility to adjust the floor’s geometry. In the series against San Antonio, the Spurs’ defense dictated how the Thunder operated. Mark Daigneault and the rest of his coaching staff failed to counter their attack successfully.<\/p>\n

San Antonio entered the Western Conference Finals schematically prepared to deny Holmgren the ball in the areas of the court where he is most comfortable, sticking with him on the perimeter to eliminate the pick-and-pop. When Oklahoma City pick-and-rolled, the Spurs forced the ball handler toward the sideline and kept a defender in the paint to clog up Holmgren’s lanes. Of course, this strategy yielded significant success.<\/p>\n

When an offense’s primary plan dissipates, teams cannot simply rely on isolating guards and hoping for the same level of execution. Instead, the playbook has to evolve.<\/p>\n

The Thunder rarely attempted weak-side pin-downs to get Holmgren the ball on the move. They rarely implemented dribble hand-offs at the top of the key to disrupt San Antonio’s rim protection. Additionally, Oklahoma City never consistently attempted third-player back screens on their defender to free him up. Instead, when the primary action broke down, the offense stagnated. Guards held onto the ball, forcing the action while Holmgren watched from the perimeter.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing Touches<\/h3>\n

Coaches can spend countless hours strategizing and game-planning. However, if the player does not do his part, it is all for nothing. Though Oklahoma City’s coaching staff deserves some of the blame, Holmgren does not walk away from these failures without shouldering some responsibility.<\/p>\n

A franchise cornerstone cannot accept being taken out of a game plan by a defense in Game 7. Two shots in 33 minutes is totally unacceptable and not in the makeup of the game’s elite players. Regardless of how brilliant the Spurs coverage was, Holmgren needed to do more.<\/p>\n

Throughout the regular season, Holmgren demonstrated significant value through his paint-touch gravity. When he catches the ball by the rim, defenses need to collapse, generating a favorable shot attempt somewhere on the court. Against San Antonio, he allowed the Spurs to force him out of the paint too easily. Whenever he established inside position, he constantly allowed the defense to front him, not battling hard enough.<\/p>\n

When the traditional offense is not leading to opportunities, it is on the player to manufacture his own usage. Elite big men find ways to address tough match-ups, dogging it out, and searching for ugly points. If plays aren’t working, you find a way to make it impossible to ignore your presence. Against the Spurs, Holmgren allowed himself to fade into obscurity.<\/p>\n

Time To Panic?<\/h3>\n

Should Oklahoma City hold some concern about Holmgren? Sure. However, the five-alarm-fire level of panic is overreacting at its finest.<\/p>\n

This Western Conference Finals does not represent a complete evaporation of his skills. What made him a great player all season and during the first and second rounds did not just suddenly disappear. An elite defensive game plan met a stagnant offensive strategy, and a young player has not quite figured out how to force his will when the game is not coming easily.<\/p>\n

A path forward exists. The coaching staff must expand the Holmgren playbook. At the same time, he needs to enter next season with assertiveness<\/a> to demand the ball when a play breaks down. The problem is solvable. That said, if it goes unsolved, the results can become catastrophic.<\/p>\n

Featured Image: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs. The season is on the line. The homecourt atmosphere for the Oklahoma City Thunder is electric, and the pressure for the team to reach dynastic status is immense. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City’s cornerstone big man, takes the court for a crucial 33 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5823,"featured_media":199020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1608,62,3,22],"tags":[4292,49180],"class_list":["post-198937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","category-nba","category-news","category-thunder","tag-chet-holmgren","tag-mark-daigneault"],"modified_by":"Benjamin Yu","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5823"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=198937"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198937\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":199023,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198937\/revisions\/199023"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=198937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=198937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=198937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}