{"id":180873,"date":"2026-03-11T09:00:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T13:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/?p=180873"},"modified":"2026-04-22T17:31:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T21:31:26","slug":"mississippi-rebels-vs-texas-longhorns-prediction-preview-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2026\/03\/11\/mississippi-rebels-vs-texas-longhorns-prediction-preview-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns: Prediction, Preview, Odds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the SEC Tournament, and we have a first-round matchup between the Mississippi Rebels and the Texas Longhorns. This contest will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The Rebels enter this contest at 12-19 on the year overall, and they were a dismal 4-14 in league play. Texas lost four of its last five regular-season games to finish at 18-13 overall and 9-9 within the SEC. These teams met once in the regular season ,and Texas won that game at home by a score of 79-68. Can the Rebels pull the upset in this one? Read on to see my Ole Miss vs Texas prediction.<\/p>\n<h2>Mississippi Rebels vs Texas Longhorns: Prediction, Preview, Odds<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Odds: Texas -6: Over\/Under 145.5<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Mississippi Rebels<\/h3>\n<p>Ole Miss enters the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2026\/03\/09\/big-12-tournament-preview-key-teams-matchups-to-watch\/\" target=\"_self\">SEC Tournament<\/a> at 12-19 overall and 4-14 in league play, looking to extend its season with improved defensive consistency. The Rebels average 75.8 points in SEC games and shoot 43.4%, relying on strong interior scoring and physical drives. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/aj-storr-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">AJ Storr<\/a> leads the team with 15.0 points and provides needed shot creation on the wing. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/malik-dia-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Malik Dia<\/a> adds 14.1 points and 5.8 rebounds, giving Ole Miss a reliable interior presence. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/ilias-kamardine-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ilias Kamardine<\/a> contributes 11.0 points and 3.8 assists, helping stabilize the backcourt.<\/p>\n<p>Ole Miss struggles from deep, hitting only 32.1% from three, but they attack the paint well and get to the line at a strong rate. Their offensive rebounding sits at 7.8 per game, which limits second\u2011chance opportunities. Ole Miss must value possessions, as they average 8.3 turnovers, and they need efficient guard play to stay competitive.<\/p>\n<p>Defensively, Ole Miss allows 82.8 points in SEC play and gives up 45.8% shooting, which has been a major issue. Opponents hit 34.2% from three, and the Rebels often struggle to close out on shooters. Their defensive rebounding is also a concern, as they allow 35.1 boards per game. Storr and Kamardine pressure the ball, but the team must improve its rotations and interior discipline. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/james-scott-8.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">James Scott<\/a> provides length at 6\u201111, but Ole Miss still gives up too many clean looks in the paint. Their defensive rankings sit near the bottom of the SEC in several categories, including opponent assists and interior efficiency. Ole Miss must slow Texas\u2019 ball movement and limit <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/dailyn-swain-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dailyn Swain<\/a>\u2019s scoring. If they cannot contain dribble penetration, they risk another high\u2011scoring game against them.<\/p>\n<p>For Ole Miss to win, they must control tempo and keep this game in the half court. Storr needs to score efficiently and avoid forced shots. Dia must win the rebounding battle and prevent Texas from dominating second\u2011chance points. Ole Miss must also improve perimeter defense and avoid giving Texas clean looks from deep. Their best path is a physical, low\u2011possession game where turnovers stay low and defensive intensity remains high. Ole Miss must attack the paint, draw fouls, and avoid long scoring droughts. If they defend the arc, rebound well, and keep Texas uncomfortable, they can stay competitive deep into the second half.<\/p>\n<h3>Texas Longhorns<\/h3>\n<figure id=\"attachment_180972\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-180972\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Feb 7, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; The Texas Longhorns bench reacts to a basket during the second half against the Mississippi Rebels at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" class=\"wp-image-180972 size-large\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28181452_168402037_lowres-1200x800.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-180972\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Feb 7, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; The Texas Longhorns bench reacts to a basket during the second half against the Mississippi Rebels at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Texas enters this matchup at 18-13 overall and <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2024\/03\/11\/underdogs-to-win-each-conference-tournament\/\" target=\"_self\">9-9 in SEC play<\/a>, looking to build momentum behind one of the league\u2019s most efficient offenses. The Longhorns average 81.8 points in SEC games and shoot 48.4%, ranking near the top of the conference in overall efficiency. Dailyn Swain leads the team with 17.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and strong two\u2011way impact. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/matas-vokietaitis-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Matas Vokietaitis<\/a> adds 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds, giving Texas a skilled 7\u2011footer who can score inside and stretch defenses. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/tramon-mark-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tramon Mark<\/a> and <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/jordan-pope-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jordan Pope<\/a> provide perimeter scoring and veteran guard play. Texas shoots 36.2% from three and gets to the line at a high rate, averaging 19.1 made free throws per game. Their spacing and ball movement create consistent scoring opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>Defensively, Texas allows 80.8 points in SEC play but holds opponents to 47.2% shooting, ranking near the middle of the conference. They defend the three well, allowing only 37.5%, and their length on the perimeter helps contest shots. Swain and <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/cbb\/players\/camden-heide-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Camden Heide<\/a> provide strong wing defense, while Vokietaitis anchors the paint with size and mobility. Texas rebounds well at 31.6 boards, and their ability to limit second\u2011chance points is a key advantage. They also force 10.1 turnovers, which helps fuel transition scoring. Texas must tighten its rotations and avoid foul trouble, especially against Ole Miss\u2019 physical drivers. Their defensive ceiling is high when they stay connected and communicate.<\/p>\n<p>For Texas to win, they must push tempo and attack Ole Miss\u2019 weak transition defense. Swain needs to establish himself early and create mismatches. Vokietaitis must control the paint and generate high\u2011percentage looks. Texas must also dominate the glass and limit Ole Miss\u2019 second\u2011chance points. Their ball movement should create open threes, and Pope\u2019s ability to penetrate can break down Ole Miss\u2019 rotations. If Texas defends the arc, forces turnovers, and keeps Ole Miss out of rhythm, they can control this matchup. Their offensive balance and defensive length give them a strong path to advancing in the SEC Tournament.<\/p>\n<h3>Predictions<\/h3>\n<p>Texas enters this SEC Tournament matchup with the stronger offensive profile and the more reliable scoring options. The Longhorns average 81.8 points in SEC play and shoot 48.4%, giving them one of the league\u2019s most efficient attacks. Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis form a difficult matchup for Ole Miss, especially against a Rebels defense allowing 82.8 points in conference games.<\/p>\n<p>Ole Miss has struggled to contain efficient wings and skilled bigs, and Texas has both. AJ Storr and Malik Dia can score, but Ole Miss\u2019 defensive issues create too many gaps. Texas\u2019 spacing and ball movement should generate clean looks all night. With Texas\u2019 recent form and Ole Miss\u2019 defensive decline, the Longhorns have a clear path to covering the -6.<\/p>\n<p>The total is also in play because both teams enter with strong Over trends. Ole Miss\u2019 last 10 games have gone 9\u20111 to the Over, with 156.5 points per game scored in regulation. Their defense has been one of the SEC\u2019s weakest, and they allow high\u2011percentage shots at every level. Texas\u2019 last 13 games have averaged 160.3 points, and every one of those contests reached at least 146 points. That consistency is rare and signals a dependable pace\u2011plus\u2011efficiency combination. Texas pushes tempo selectively, and Ole Miss\u2019 transition defense has struggled all season. Both teams have multiple scorers capable of creating mismatches, and neither side profiles as a group that will slow the game for long stretches.<\/p>\n<p>The most likely script features Texas controlling the matchup with efficient scoring, strong rebounding, and superior shot creation. Ole Miss will contribute offensively because their recent form suggests they can score even when trailing, but their defense will not hold up for 40 minutes. Texas should find consistent success through Swain, Vokietaitis, and Tramon Mark, while Ole Miss leans on Storr and Dia to keep pace. The combination of weak defense, strong guard play, and recent scoring trends supports the Over 145.5. Texas\u2019 balance, depth, and efficiency make Texas -6 the stronger side. Expect a high\u2011scoring SEC Tournament game where Texas pulls away late and the total clears the number.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Final Prediction: Texas -6 &amp; Over 145.5<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a9 Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the SEC Tournament, and we have a first-round matchup between the Mississippi Rebels and the Texas Longhorns. This contest will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The Rebels enter this contest at 12-19 on the year overall, and they were a dismal 4-14 in league play. Texas lost four of its last [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5785,"featured_media":180970,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1608,773,50440,3],"tags":[1436,1044],"class_list":["post-180873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","category-college-basketball","category-ncaa-predictions","category-news","tag-sec-basketball","tag-texas-longhorns"],"modified_by":"Michael Kovacs, ADMIN","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5785"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=180873"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":180973,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180873\/revisions\/180973"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/180970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=180873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=180873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=180873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}