{"id":141140,"date":"2025-05-23T16:46:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T20:46:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/?p=141140"},"modified":"2025-05-23T16:46:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T20:46:10","slug":"the-pacers-are-making-this-stat-useless","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2025\/05\/23\/the-pacers-are-making-this-stat-useless\/","title":{"rendered":"The Pacers Are Making This Stat &#8216;Useless&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>NEW YORK \u2013 You\u2019ve seen every stat under the sun in the NBA. But the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/category\/pacers\/\" target=\"_self\">Indiana Pacers<\/a> keep rewriting the rules. In three separate series, Indiana erased massive deficits. Each comeback seemed impossible at the time, yet they found ways to win. Indiana has made one stat in particular feel useless: win probability.<\/p>\n<h2>The Pacers Are Making This Stat &#8216;Useless&#8217;<\/h2>\n<h3>Unbelievable Comebacks<\/h3>\n<p>First round against <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/category\/bucks\/\" target=\"_self\">Milwaukee<\/a>, Game 5: Indiana trailed by seven in overtime. With 1.3 seconds left, <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/h\/halibty01.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tyrese Haliburton<\/a> drove for a lay-in. Boom. Pacers win 119\u2013118. The Bucks had a win probability of <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/game\/_\/gameId\/401768050\/bucks-pacers\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">100 percent<\/a> with less than two minutes left. Yet the Pacers won.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"MUST-SEE OT ENDING! Pacers vs Bucks Game 5 \ud83d\udc40 | April 29, 2025\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/azAYxhTAyDI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Second round versus <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/category\/cavaliers\/\" target=\"_self\">Cleveland<\/a>, Game 2: Down seven with 46 seconds on the clock. Haliburton buried a corner three with two ticks left. Final: 120\u2013119 Pacers. The Cavaliers had a win probability of <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/game\/_\/gameId\/401769740\/pacers-cavaliers\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">100 percent<\/a> with less than two minutes left. Again, the Pacers prevailed.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Final 1:56 WILD GAME 2 ENDING Cavaliers vs Pacers \ud83c\udf7f | May 6, 2025\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/5azTdfzb58c?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Eastern Conference Finals, Game 1 versus <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/category\/knicks\/\" target=\"_self\">New York<\/a>: Trailing by 14 with 2:51 remaining, Knicks fans thought it was over. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/b\/brunsja01.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jalen Brunson\u2019s<\/a> pull-up three pushed the lead to 14. Win probability sat at <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.espn.com\/nba\/game\/_\/gameId\/401772989\/pacers-knicks\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">100 percent<\/a>. Then Indiana ripped off a 20\u20136 run to force overtime and won 138\u2013135.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"MUST-SEE GAME 1 ENDING Knicks vs Pacers \ud83c\udf7f | May 21, 2025\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/u8MhPYS3DDs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>Stamina Beats Statistics<\/h3>\n<figure id=\"attachment_141176\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-141176\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-141176\" src=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Aaron Nesmith was the catalyst behind the Pacers comeback knocking down six threes in the fourth quarter \" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2025\/05\/USATSI_26249308_168415934_lowres-1200x800.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-141176\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">May 21, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith (23) shoots a three point shot against New York Knicks guard Josh Hart (3) in the fourth quarter during game one of the eastern conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Here\u2019s why those Pacers comebacks make the win probability stat &#8216;useless&#8217;. Indiana thrives when others fade. As games drag on, the Pacers tighten up. They out-hustle opponents. They out-think them too.<\/p>\n<p>In Game 1 against New York, <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/n\/nembhan01.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andrew Nembhard<\/a> capped off the turnaround by intercepting an <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/a\/anunoog01.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">OG Anunoby<\/a> pass intended for Brunson with 18.9 seconds left in overtime. That crucial turnover sealed the win. Meanwhile, <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/n\/nesmiaa01.html\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Aaron Nesmith<\/a> knocked down wide-open threes, shots that came as the Knicks began to wear down. As fatigue set in, New York\u2019s defense lost a step.<\/p>\n<h3>Discipline and Poise<\/h3>\n<p>Stamina alone doesn\u2019t explain everything. The Pacers avoid rash fouls. They limit mental errors. That discipline fuels their late-game surges. They play smarter when the clock winds down. They control tempo, choose their spots, and make opponents feel pressured. Even when analytics say a comeback has zero chance, Indiana believes. They\u2019ve mastered the art of believing in every possession.<\/p>\n<h3>Why the Pacers Make the Win Probability Stat Useless<\/h3>\n<p>Every win probability model uses time and score to set odds. Indiana throws those models out the window. Their comebacks expose the flaws in predictive stats. You can\u2019t just look at a 100 percent win probability number and expect a sure outcome. The win probability is not a sure thing because Indiana will refuse to quit. They play with confidence, knowing they can defy the odds.<\/p>\n<p>In all three games, analytics pegged their chance at zero. Yet they stormed back. Their fourth-quarter efforts and overtime resilience made that stat meaningless. That\u2019s why, after three miracles, every data model should come with an asterisk.<\/p>\n<h3>The Pacers are a Coach&#8217;s Dream<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Pacers have rewritten late-game theory. Rick Carlisle&#8217;s coaching has been unsung in the playoffs. A well coached team always executes no matter the situation. <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">They\u2019ve shown that heart and hustle can trump every predictive model. In each series, they dismantled win probability in real time. That\u2019s why the Pacers have rendered the predictive stat useless. <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Because no number can capture this team\u2019s will to win.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><label>Credit: <\/label>\u00a9 Brad Penner-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NEW YORK \u2013 You\u2019ve seen every stat under the sun in the NBA. But the Indiana Pacers keep rewriting the rules. In three separate series, Indiana erased massive deficits. Each comeback seemed impossible at the time, yet they found ways to win. Indiana has made one stat in particular feel useless: win probability. The Pacers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5018,"featured_media":141175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[62,1608,11,12,3],"tags":[50041,2832,4710,950,1082],"class_list":["post-141140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba","category-basketball","category-pacers","category-knicks","category-news","tag-2025-nba-playoffs","tag-aaron-nesmith","tag-advanced-stats","tag-andrew-nembhard","tag-og-anunoby"],"modified_by":"Frederick Okocha","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5018"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=141140"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":141177,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141140\/revisions\/141177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/141175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=141140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=141140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=141140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}