{"id":135134,"date":"2025-04-18T19:46:44","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T23:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/?p=135134"},"modified":"2025-04-18T19:46:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T23:46:44","slug":"wolves-lakers-playoff-series-preview-part-three-the-analytics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/2025\/04\/18\/wolves-lakers-playoff-series-preview-part-three-the-analytics\/","title":{"rendered":"Wolves-Lakers Playoff Series Preview \u2014 Part Three: The Analytics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Having explored how the Lakers and Wolves players match up in Part One<\/a> and Two<\/a> of this playoff series preview, it\u2019s time to get into the numbers. The Lakers seem to have an advantage in the starting five, while Minnesota\u2019s bench brings firepower that LA can\u2019t match. The analytics could therefore be key in predicting who will come out on top in this high profile first round series. To try and find advantages that each team could exploit, there\u2019s three key advanced statistics that will prove crucial to advancing to the next round.<\/p>\n

Wolves-Lakers Playoff Series Preview \u2014 Part Three: The Analytics<\/b><\/h2>\n

Note \u2014 for the purpose of this exercise, the advanced statistics will encompass the entire season. However, the Lakers roster changed dramatically on February 10, when Luka Doncic<\/a> made his debut. When applicable, I will provide the numbers for this final portion of the season, if it deviates greatly from the season-long trend. <\/i><\/p>\n

Free Throw Rate<\/b><\/h3>\n

No team in the league gets to the free throw line at a higher rate<\/a> than the Los Angeles Lakers. Their free throw rate of 0.271 narrowly topped the Orlando Magic in second, while Minnesota came in at 11th (0.249). It\u2019s going to be the story of the series, can Minnesota defend LeBron James<\/a> and Doncic without fouling? Four Wolves rank among the top 40<\/a> players in the league in total fouls this season, while LA has no one. This bodes well for the Lakers, who should find themselves in the bonus early and often, benefitting from easy points at the charity stripe.<\/p>\n

If Minnesota is going to compete in the free throw department, it will start with Anthony Edwards<\/a>. Despite leading the NBA in three-pointers made this season, he is still an aggressive rim attacker. This aggression helped him to rank in the top ten<\/a> free throws per game at 6.3. No one else in this series features in the top 20 (although Doncic would\u2019ve ranked third in the NBA at 7.9 free throws per game, he just didn\u2019t play enough games to qualify). If Edwards is getting to the hoop, and not settling for jumpers and step back threes, it will do wonders for the Wolves offense. However, James and Doncic are experts at drawing fouls, and with the playoff experience they each posses, look for LA to dominate the free throw battle.<\/p>\n

Second Chance Points<\/b><\/h3>\n

Among these two rosters, Minnesota clearly has a size advantage, but it remains to be seen if they can use it effectively. One area that they should benefit from simply having taller players is second chance points<\/a>. The Wolves averaged nearly three more second chance points per game than the Lakers, 15.1 to 12.3. Since Doncic arrived, the number jumped slightly up to 13.0, <\/a>but it\u2019s still not a priority for LA.<\/p>\n

One major way that teams get second chance points is tipped rebounds leading to three-pointers. Minnesota ranked fourth in the league in three-point percentage<\/a> at 37.7, while LA was 14th at 36.6. This differential explains some of the second chance point advantage. Additionally, watch Rudy Gobert<\/a> to see if he is able to make an impact on the offensive glass. Over the final few weeks of the season, he had multiple games<\/a> with 5+ offensive rebounds. His size should help the Wolves win the battle of the boards, and any extra possessions leading to points will provide a much needed boost.<\/p>\n

Assist to Turnover Ratio<\/b><\/h3>\n

This final stat is one that neither team excelled at during the regular season. Minnesota ranked 18th at 1.81 assist to turnover ratio<\/a>, slightly behind LA at 16th (1.86). However, because the teams are so evenly matched in this area, whichever squad takes better care of the ball stands to have a significant advantage. One trend that favors Minnesota is that since Doncic\u2019s Lakers debut, LA actually ranks worse in assist\/turnover ratio, down in 24th. Meanwhile, over the same stretch<\/a>, Minnesota has raised their rank up to seventh in the NBA. If these last three months are anything to go off, the Wolves could find themselves with another advantage.<\/p>\n

Despite the recent numbers, with the playoff spotlights on, it would be more likely that Doncic and James will raise their play. If these two primary playmakers can take better care of the ball, that number should jump drastically. On the Wolves side, Edwards can sometimes force the issue too often, especially in close games. When he starts taking on double teams, slinging cross-court passes, or charging over defenders at the rim, Minnesota\u2019s offense tanks.<\/p>\n

The Final Verdict<\/b><\/h3>\n

Understanding both teams\u2019 preferred play styles, rosters, and areas for improvement, the Lakers come out as favorites. However, there is a path to victory for the underdog Wolves, led by an efficient Edwards and Gobert dominating the glass. Bet against Doncic and James at your own risk, and even though they lack the playoff experience as a duo, their combined history of success gives them a great chance to move on to the Western Conference Semifinals. Whoever wins, Wolves or Lakers, will have earned this series win, and look to use it as a springboard for the remaining playoff rounds.<\/p>\n

Photo credit: \u00a9 Matt Krohn-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Having explored how the Lakers and Wolves players match up in Part One and Two of this playoff series preview, it\u2019s time to get into the numbers. The Lakers seem to have an advantage in the starting five, while Minnesota\u2019s bench brings firepower that LA can\u2019t match. The analytics could therefore be key in predicting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5485,"featured_media":135221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1608,26,21,62],"tags":[2109,38,1133,394],"class_list":["post-135134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","category-lakers","category-timberwolves","category-nba","tag-anthony-edwards","tag-lebron-james","tag-luka-doncic","tag-rudy-gobert"],"modified_by":"Kenny Kluska","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5485"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135134"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135134\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":135222,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135134\/revisions\/135222"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/135221"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/basketball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}