{"id":92500,"date":"2024-12-21T00:22:53","date_gmt":"2024-12-21T05:22:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=92500"},"modified":"2024-12-21T00:22:53","modified_gmt":"2024-12-21T05:22:53","slug":"fantasy-impact-alex-bregman-leaving-astros","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/12\/21\/fantasy-impact-alex-bregman-leaving-astros\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Impact of Alex Bregman Likely Leaving Houston"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Houston Astros have been one of the busiest clubs this offseason. From <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/12\/13\/kyle-tucker-astros-cubs-deal\/\" target=\"_self\">trading away<\/a> superstar outfielder <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/t\/tuckeky01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kyle Tucker<\/a> to letting franchise legend <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/bregmal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alex Bregman<\/a> test free agency, the Astros&#8217; lineup figures to look a little different in 2025, and it could have a substantial fantasy impact with the players involved.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Moves<\/h3>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The Cubs have reportedly acquired OF Kyle Tucker in a trade that includes INF <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/p\/paredis01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Isaac Paredes<\/a> and MLB&#8217;s No. 73 overall prospect 3B <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=smith-014cam&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cam Smith<\/a>. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6cQUDtLppH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/6cQUDtLppH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MLBNetwork\/status\/1867658142101680371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 13, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Among the biggest moves of the winter was the Chicago Cubs acquiring the 27-year-old superstar from the Houston Astros. Included in the return package was corner infielder <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/p\/paredis01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Isaac Paredes<\/a>, presumably the replacement for Alex Bregman. Along with Paredes, the Astros acquired pitcher <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/w\/wesneha01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Hayden Wesneski<\/a> and top prospect <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=smith-014cam&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cam Smith<\/a>, who the <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/isaac-paredes-hayden-wesneski-cam-smith-traded-to-astros#:~:text=%E2%80%9CHis%20last%20position%20he%20played,really%20excited%20about%20Cam%20Smith.%E2%80%9D\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Astros are very excited about<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Astros, 1B Christian Walker agree to deal, per multiple reports including <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z3s2EpgF39\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/Z3s2EpgF39<\/a>&#8216;s <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Feinsand?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@Feinsand<\/a>. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Es1STWKFdS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/Es1STWKFdS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 MLB (@MLB) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MLB\/status\/1870167391935529130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>After signing 35-year-old first baseman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/a\/abreujo02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jos\u00e9 Abreu<\/a> to a three-year, $58.5 million contract in 2022, the Astros have signed a 33-year-old first baseman in <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/w\/walkech02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-21_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Christian Walker<\/a> to a three-year, $60 million contract in 2024. For what it&#8217;s worth, the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/12\/20\/christian-walker-joins-astros-on-3-year-contract\/\" target=\"_self\">Walker deal<\/a> should age much friendlier than the Abreu contract.<\/p>\n<h2>Fantasy Impact of Astros Offseason Moves<\/h2>\n<h4>Isaac Paredes<\/h4>\n<p>The acquisition of Paredes clearly signals the end for Alex Bregman in Houston. The Astros conveniently replaced him with a hitter whose skills align perfectly with his new home ballpark. Paredes&#8217; extreme pull approach will be a perfect fit. Over the last three seasons, Paredes has hit 72 home runs despite his poor batted-ball metrics. His expected home run total would climb to 79 if all of his batted balls were at MinuteMaid Park. Furthermore, in 2024, he had 13 expected home runs at his old park at Wrigley Field, compared to 26 in his new home.<\/p>\n<p>Paredes is the <a  href=\"https:\/\/blogs.fangraphs.com\/isaac-paredes-keeps-getting-away-with-it\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pulled fly ball king<\/a> of baseball. He ranked second in 2024 with a 43.3% pull rate on his fly balls. Combined with a strong approach at the plate, he projects favorably in the Astros lineup.<\/p>\n<h4>Alex Bregman<\/h4>\n<p>Similarly, Bregman employed a turn-and-burn method to pull home runs into the Crawford Boxes. His departure from this ballpark will undoubtedly have a negative effect on his future home run totals. The quality of contact numbers were never formidable for Bregman and now figure to decline more as he ages into his thirties. In addition, opposing pitchers are seemingly content with challenging Bregman in the zone.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Since 2015, 33 regulars 30 yo or older have seen as big an increase in how many pitches they saw in the zone as Alex Bregman did this year. That marked the end of being a regular for 6. The other 27 averaged a 2.5-point drop in wRC+, with 8 dropping more than 20 points.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Eno Sarris (@enosarris) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/enosarris\/status\/1870163707843751966?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As pointed out by Eno Sarris, this trend marked the beginning of the end for some players. It is also worth noting that this likely had a direct impact on Bregman&#8217;s walk rate taking a significant drop (6.9% in 2024 compared to 11.9% for his career). So while he hit more home runs (26) than he has since the rabid ball year in 2019, he also posted the lowest OBP (.315) since his rookie season.<\/p>\n<h4>Christian Walker<\/h4>\n<p>While the contracts are similar between Walker and Abreu, Walker has a better and more sustainable profile to have future success. When the Astros signed Abreu in 2022, he had posted the lowest home run total of his career. While he still had a productive season, slashing .304\/.378\/.446 (137 wRC), this was still an aging player with an elevated chase rate and possible warning signs with his batted ball metrics. On the other hand, Walker has displayed strong barrel rates over the last three seasons accompanied by a sound approach at the plate. His chase rate is not an issue, and he has the most <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;ind=0&amp;season1=2022&amp;season=2024&amp;stats=fld&amp;pos=1b&amp;type=1&amp;sortcol=12&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Defensive Runs Saved<\/a> by a first baseman since 2022.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Pulled Flyball%<\/p>\n<p>2022 Jos\u00e9 Abreu = 3.6%<br \/>\n2024 Christian Walker = 9.6%<\/p>\n<p>Statcast Field Run Value<\/p>\n<p>2022 Jos\u00e9 Abreu = +1<br \/>\n2024 Christian Walker = +10<\/p>\n<p>Bagwell and Crane have done poorly, but this signing profiles differently and I expect a different outcome. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xizeKeLkPi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/xizeKeLkPi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Foolish Baseball (@FoolishBB) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FoolishBB\/status\/1870170092174180799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Walker&#8217;s production should increase as he steps into the heart of one of the better lineups in baseball. Furthermore, he gets a ballpark upgrade in terms of right-handed home run production. With the Astros, Christian Walker once again projects as a strong fantasy option when targeting first basemen in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Photo Credit: \u00a9 Thomas Shea-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Houston Astros have been one of the busiest clubs this offseason. From trading away superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker to letting franchise legend Alex Bregman test free agency, the Astros&#8217; lineup figures to look a little different in 2025, and it could have a substantial fantasy impact with the players involved. Key Moves The Cubs [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5308,"featured_media":92519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2886,14,1071],"tags":[1156,28631,2517,5883,4076,2319],"class_list":["post-92500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fantasy-baseball","category-astros","category-mlb","tag-alex-bregman","tag-cam-smith","tag-christian-walker","tag-hayden-wesneski","tag-isaac-paredes","tag-kyle-tucker"],"modified_by":"Lewis Masella, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5308"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92500"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92500\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92520,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92500\/revisions\/92520"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}