{"id":92018,"date":"2024-12-14T01:25:43","date_gmt":"2024-12-14T06:25:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=92018"},"modified":"2024-12-14T01:25:43","modified_gmt":"2024-12-14T06:25:43","slug":"phillies-cristopher-sanchez-should-continue-ascent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/12\/14\/phillies-cristopher-sanchez-should-continue-ascent\/","title":{"rendered":"Phillies Lefty Should Continue To Ascend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/sanchcr01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-14_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cristopher S\u00e1nchez<\/a> of the Philadelphia Phillies enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2024, pitching to a 3.32 ERA and 1.244 WHIP across 181 2\/3 innings. S\u00e1nchez was tied with American League Cy Young runner-up <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/l\/lugose01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-14_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Seth Lugo<\/a> for the sixth most valuable starting pitcher in all of baseball by <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2024&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;sortcol=20&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fWAR<\/a>. He established himself as one of the <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2024&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;sortcol=13&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">premier ground ball pitchers<\/a> in baseball, ranking 3rd among qualified starters. The 27-year-old inked an extension with the Phillies during the season and is entrenched in their rotation for the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/10\/15\/phillies-starting-rotation-outlook-2025\/\" target=\"_self\">future<\/a>. Let&#8217;s dig into his arsenal and other statistical elements of his profile.<\/p>\n<h2>Cristopher S\u00e1nchez Primed to Shine Long-Term for Phillies<\/h2>\n<h3>The Arsenal<\/h3>\n<p>S\u00e1nchez opts for a three-pitch arsenal consisting of a sinker, changeup, and a slider. The left-handed starter throws all of his pitches from an above-average 6.1-foot release height. Given all of S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s pitches break down and move east-to-west, this combined with his higher release height gives him some of the steepest Vertical Approach Angles (VAA) among all pitchers. Furthermore, his trio of pitches were all among the top 20 in the steepest approach angles. This is due to the pitch types utilized as well as how effective S\u00e1nchez is at locating these pitches in the bottom third of the zone and below the zone.<\/p>\n<h4>Sinker<\/h4>\n<p>S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s sinker averages about 94.5 MPH with 7.5 inches of induced vertical break and 17.8 inches of horizontal break. While it was his most used pitch at 47.3%, it was also his least effective pitch by run value. This was primarily due to the opposite hand teeing off on his hardest offering, as they posted a .417 xwOBA against the sinker. Many sinker ballers understand the <a  href=\"https:\/\/blogs.fangraphs.com\/sinkers-change-ups-and-platoon-splits\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">platoon splits<\/a> that sinkers possess, but the trade-offs can be worth it. Additionally, the sinker plays an important role in setting up his elite changeup.<\/p>\n<p>The sinker was S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s only pitch that struggled against right-handed hitters. In addition, there was another pitch that S\u00e1nchez used for a total of three pitches all season that could possibly be an answer for him in the future. That was a cutter, which could conveniently alleviate some of these issues. Now, there is likely a reason he did not throw it all season. Maybe he never felt comfortable with the feel of it and didn&#8217;t trust himself locating it. But there is an avenue for him to ramp up the usage a bit this off-season to give him optionality against right-handed hitters. The multiplicity of wielding more than one fastball is a valuable tool for pitchers these days.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"es\">Cristopher S\u00e1nchez, 96mph Paint. \ud83d\udd8c\ufe0f\ud83c\udfa8 <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bH7vZe68qf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/bH7vZe68qf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PitchingNinja\/status\/1816968642765955366?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 26, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h4>Changeup<\/h4>\n<p>The headliner of S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s arsenal is his wicked changeup. Thrown 35.7% of the time, it reaches 0.6 inches of induced vertical break with an absurd 17.9 inches of horizontal break. This combination of arm-side run with drop makes it one of the more devastating off-speed pitches in baseball. In fact, it was the most valuable changeup in the league by <a  href=\"https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/leaderboard\/pitch-arsenal-stats?type=pitcher&amp;pitchType=CH&amp;year=2024&amp;team=&amp;min=10\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">run value<\/a>. Its interaction effect with his sinker is notable. At an average of 85.1 MPH, there is nearly a 10 MPH difference between his sinker and changeup. While the horizontal movement numbers are almost identical, the velocity and vertical movement differences are crucial in successful changeups.<\/p>\n<p>The pitch produced one of the highest Chase rates in baseball at a ridiculous 45.1%. This extreme amount of chase can lead to some favorable results. His changeup excelled at generating swing and miss with an excellent 19.2% swinging strike rate while also producing ground balls at a 64.4% clip. So, it was one of the overall best pitches in baseball in terms of suppressing hard and damaging contact, allowing a measly .194 xwOBA.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"ca\">Cristopher S\u00e1nchez, Filthy Changeups. \ud83d\udc4c <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KgjAudH5nm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/KgjAudH5nm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PitchingNinja\/status\/1818688959977078932?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 31, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h4>Slider<\/h4>\n<p>S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s slider proved to be a useful offering for him, as he could utilize it at similar rates against each handedness. His slider parallels the movement characteristics of a bullet slider with -3.2 inches of induced vertical break and a -1 inch of induced vertical break. Averaging 84.4 MPH, it again proved to be a valuable offering from a hard contact suppression perspective allowing just a .270 xwOBA.<\/p>\n<p>The beauty of bullet sliders is they are a platoon-neutral pitch. Another added benefit is that, due to their more minimal movement profile, they are easier to control and command for strikes. With his changeup generating extreme chase out of the zone, he felt comfortable with the slider as a strike-throwing option with almost a 50% Strike%. Added with a 15.6% swinging strike rate, it handled righties well. On the other hand, the slider dominated lefties too, with a 16% swinging strike rate and 70% ground ball rate.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"es\">Cristopher S\u00e1nchez, Dirty 85mph Slider. \ud83d\ude28<\/p>\n<p>7th K <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EmMoa7DiBy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/EmMoa7DiBy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PitchingNinja\/status\/1835390576729968658?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 15, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3>Room for Development<\/h3>\n<p>An oddity for Cristopher S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s otherwise breakthrough season was his home and road splits. Strangely, S\u00e1nchez was a totally different pitcher based on the location of the game. Here are some noteworthy differences in his performance:<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 518px;\" width=\"223\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Away<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ERA<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.21<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.02<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">WHIP<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.97<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.66<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FIP<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.54<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.70<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">xFIP<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.75<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.87<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">K-BB%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">19.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BABIP<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.277<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.358<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">wOBA<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.241<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.354<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">xwOBA<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.257<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.342<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>While there may be some concerns over these splits, it seems far too noisy to weigh a ton. In 2023, his home ERA was nearly two full runs higher than his away ERA. The Phillies considered this in <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/08\/25\/phillies-starting-pitchers-crucial-braves-series\/\" target=\"_self\">making<\/a> their <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/cristopher-sanchez-to-start-nlds-game-2-for-phillies-against-mets\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">playoff rotation decisions<\/a>, but it should not be a big future concern.<\/p>\n<p>A major improvement that S\u00e1nchez displayed in 2024, and importantly maintained throughout the course of the season, was an uptick in velocity. Across the board, the lefty showed significant velocity increases. While showcasing added velocity is impressive, the important piece of information is seeing how he maintained it as his workload increased. Here are his improvements from 2023 to 2024 in velocity:<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 302px;\" width=\"333\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2023<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2024<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sinker &#8211; 92.1 MPH<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sinker &#8211; 94.5 MPH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Changeup &#8211; 81.8 MPH<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Changeup &#8211; 85.1 MPH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Slider &#8211; 82.7 MPH<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Slider &#8211; 84.4 MPH<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>2025 Outlook and Comparison<\/h3>\n<p>Every player is a unique case. We can group players into these cohorts that have specific things we are looking for in order to compile statistically similar players. An interesting comparison and ceiling case for Cristopher S\u00e1nchez could be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/w\/webblo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-14_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Logan Webb<\/a>. Obviously, there are a few physical differences, but their arsenals and statistical markers are similar. S\u00e1nchez has a ways to go in terms of matching Webb&#8217;s consistency. However, if he can replicate similar versions of his 2024 season, his ceiling could settle around a similar place.<\/p>\n<p>Just for context, there have been five pitchers since 2015 to have a 55% ground ball rate or higher with a 3.00 FIP or less (minimum 180 innings). The names include 2015 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/a\/arrieja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-14_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jake Arrieta<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/r\/rossty01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-14_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tyson Ross<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/keuchda01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2024-12-14_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dallas Keuchel<\/a>, along with two names from 2024: Logan Webb and Cristopher S\u00e1nchez. Importantly, S\u00e1nchez has the fewest innings on here. However, it speaks to the kind of season he had and provides some possible comparisons. In 2025, Cristopher S\u00e1nchez projects to put up similar numbers and help fortify the Phillies rotation.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Photo Credit: \u00a9 Kyle Ross-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cristopher S\u00e1nchez of the Philadelphia Phillies enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2024, pitching to a 3.32 ERA and 1.244 WHIP across 181 2\/3 innings. S\u00e1nchez was tied with American League Cy Young runner-up Seth Lugo for the sixth most valuable starting pitcher in all of baseball by fWAR. He established himself as one of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5308,"featured_media":92075,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23,1071],"tags":[28573,3037],"class_list":["post-92018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-phillies","category-mlb","tag-cristopher-sanchez","tag-logan-webb"],"modified_by":"Lewis Masella, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5308"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92018"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92018\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92076,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92018\/revisions\/92076"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}