{"id":87889,"date":"2024-10-19T16:11:08","date_gmt":"2024-10-19T20:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=87889"},"modified":"2026-02-04T20:38:01","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T01:38:01","slug":"encouraging-signs-walker-buehler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/10\/19\/encouraging-signs-walker-buehler\/","title":{"rendered":"Encouraging Signs From Walker Buehler"},"content":{"rendered":"

Walker Buehler of the Los Angeles Dodgers has had a rocky season<\/a> in his return from his second Tommy John surgery. His 5.38 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate were both by far the worst marks of his career. The movement characteristics on his pitches noticeably regressed and contributed to the underwhelming season. However, there were some encouraging signs in his Game 3 start against the Mets in the NLDS. Buehler has been an excellent postseason pitcher in his career, and he can build on this performance.<\/p>\n

Encouraging Signs From Walker Buehler<\/h2>\n

Fastball Falloff<\/h3>\n

Velocity and stuff typically returns following Tommy John Surgery, and command tends to take a little longer. For Buehler, it is a bit of a different case as it is his second surgery, and the list of success stories is shorter. His velocity numbers were down a touch this season compared to his peak years, and he had the worst walk rate of his career. Although his walk rate was merely average now, that, combined with his diminished stuff, provided him a small margin for error.<\/p>\n

The biggest difference for Buehler was his four-seam fastball quality. In his best seasons from 2018-2021, these were some of his four-seam fastball characteristics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Average Velocity (MPH)<\/span><\/td>\n96.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average induced Vertical Break (inches)<\/span><\/td>\n18.2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average Vertical Release Point (feet)<\/span><\/td>\n5.93<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

In this span, Walker Buehler was one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball by fWAR<\/a>. A major contributor to that prolonged stretch of dominance was the elite quality of his four-seam fastball. During this 4-year span, Buehler’s four-seam fastball ranked 4th in pitcher run value<\/a> according to Baseball Savant, ranking only behind three future Hall of Famers in Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.\u00a0 In 2024, he has not been able to replicate it to that standard as it was one of the worst four-seam fastballs in baseball.\u00a0 Hitters feasted on this offering as it allowed a gaudy .653 xSLG. Here are the same characteristics of the pitch in 2024:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Average Velocity (MPH)<\/span><\/td>\n95.0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average induced Vertical Break (inches)<\/span><\/td>\n16.6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average Vertical Release Point (feet)<\/span><\/td>\n5.67<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

A noticeable theme as the years have gone on is Buehler lowering his release point. That certainly affects the induced Vertical Break numbers not being as high. His release point is as low as in his career, and the corresponding results have not been friendly.<\/p>\n

Promising Outing?<\/h3>\n

Walker Buehler had an encouraging outing in his Game 3 NLDS start against the Mets. While he only lasted 4 innings, he posted an excellent swing-and-miss rate along with other positive underlying metrics. Although his four-seam fastball velocity was below his season average at 93.8 MPH, he had just over 20 inches of induced Vertical Break (iVB) from a 5.5-foot release height. Any four-seam fastball nearing 20 inches of vertical rise is a plus pitch.\u00a0 Obtaining that mark from a lower release height is especially remarkable.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Walker Buehler had a very effective outing today, tossing 4.0 Scoreless IP with 6 K<\/p>\n

Buehler’s stuff looked the best that it’s been all season, which led him to 18 Whiffs<\/p>\n

He chose the right time to have his most dominant start of the season pic.twitter.com\/It5q1iT2Vv<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) October 17, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n