{"id":7241,"date":"2017-07-05T23:51:35","date_gmt":"2017-07-06T03:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/\/?p=7241"},"modified":"2021-12-30T17:37:59","modified_gmt":"2021-12-30T22:37:59","slug":"freddie-freemans-position-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2017\/07\/05\/freddie-freemans-position-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Jones-ing for Freddie Freeman’s Hot Corner Conversion? Consider the Math"},"content":{"rendered":"

The fireworks went off before the Atlanta sun had even set on Independence Day. Back and turning a new corner for the rallying Atlanta Braves, Freddie Freeman<\/a><\/strong>‘s position change is official.<\/p>\n

The shocking speed with which he recovered from his broken wrist notwithstanding, the news of Freeman’s shift to third base to accommodate the hot-hitting Matt Adams<\/a><\/strong> has shocked or surprised many, even seasoned sportswriters like the Atlanta Journal Constitution\u2019s Dave O\u2019Brien.<\/a> As he blazed through a rehab stint with Triple-A Gwinnett \u2013 starting at third base for just two games and flashing his glove at a position he hasn\u2019t played regularly since high school \u2013 Freeman\u2019s journey across the diamond has completed the transition from rumor mill fodder, to legitimate likelihood, to statistical and historical fact.<\/p>\n

Freddie Freeman’s Position Change Supported by History<\/h2>\n

It\u2019s not unheard of. Cal Ripken<\/a><\/strong> moved a few feet to his right from shortstop late in his career. Perennial All-Star and Good Guy Michael Young<\/a><\/strong> famously changed positions at the request of the Texas Rangers. And it\u2019s hardly a new experience for the Braves to mull over whether their franchise player should play third base.<\/p>\n

The last time the team was confronted with such a high-profile decision, it was the 2001 offseason. Future first-ballot Hall of Fame third baseman Chipper Jones<\/a><\/strong> departed the hot corner to accommodate former All-Star Vinny Castilla<\/a><\/strong>, who returned to the Braves (his first team after leaving Mexico) as a free agent after splitting a solid year by most metrics between the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the National League\u2019s Houston Astros (remember when?).<\/p>\n

Jones was game for the move.<\/a><\/p>\n

“I’ve carved my niche at third base and I certainly don’t feel this is a demotion,” he told the Augusta Chronicle in December 2001 after the signing. “Playing left [field] doesn’t bother me. I would love to play my whole career at one position, but I’m not going to let it stand in the way of us getting good players to help our ballclub. We’ve gone out and gotten a top-notch third baseman and I’ll move.”<\/p>\n

Of course, the ascending Atlanta Braves of 2017 face different circumstances than the perennial champions of the 1990s. They also enjoy the benefit of consulting sabermetrics when making the decision. That means we also have the benefit of looking back to see if Jones\u2019 position switch was a good idea.<\/p>\n

While Jones was already an MVP, it wasn\u2019t a terrible idea to snag one of the best third basemen on the market at the time, though Castilla\u2019s best years in his 16-year career almost exclusively coincided with his time spent in the thin air of Colorado. In eight full seasons as a Rockie, Castilla hit 30+ homers six times (and 40 or more three times), drove in 100 or more runs five times and hit .300 or more four times. He never equaled any of those numbers in another uniform.<\/p>\n

But the opportunity to move the production of a star hitter like Jones to the outfield (don\u2019t you just love reminiscing on those Jones Boys outfields<\/a>?) while adding an All-Star-caliber third baseman in Castilla to the lineup was too much to pass up for the Braves. They barely won the NL East by one and two games in 2000 and 2001, respectively, and featured. clinically anemic performances for several years in left field. They even allowed\u00a0Bobby Bonilla<\/a><\/strong> \u2013 yes, that Bobby Bonilla \u2013 to play 63 games in left, to the tune of -1.1 WAR.<\/p>\n

Did it work? The Braves didn\u2019t lose a division crown for another two years after the experiment ended, so competitively, sure, it worked. In terms of WAR, however, it\u2019s clear the hole in the lineup shifted from left field to third base.<\/p>\n

WAR, Atlanta Braves Third Basemen, 1998-2004<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/strong><\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/td>\nGames Played<\/strong><\/td>\nWAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998<\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/td>\n158<\/td>\n7.1 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999<\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/td>\n156<\/td>\n7.3 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000<\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/td>\n152<\/td>\n6.0 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001<\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/td>\n159<\/td>\n6.1 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002<\/strong><\/td>\nVinny Castilla<\/strong><\/td>\n139<\/strong><\/td>\n-1.5 WAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003<\/strong><\/td>\nVinny Castilla<\/strong><\/td>\n147<\/strong><\/td>\n1.9 WAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2004<\/td>\nMark DeRosa<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n72<\/td>\n-1.9 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/td>\n96<\/td>\n3.3 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

WAR, Atlanta Braves Left Fielders, 1998-2004<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/strong><\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/td>\nGames Played<\/strong><\/td>\nWAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998<\/td>\nRyan Klesko<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n120<\/td>\n2.8 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999<\/td>\nGerald Williams<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n120<\/td>\n1.9 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000<\/td>\nReggie Sanders<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n69<\/td>\n0.2 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nBobby Bonilla<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n-1.1 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001<\/td>\nB.J. Surhoff<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n129<\/td>\n0.7 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002<\/strong><\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/strong><\/td>\n152<\/strong><\/td>\n5.9 WAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003<\/strong><\/td>\nChipper Jones<\/strong><\/td>\n149<\/strong><\/td>\n3.9 WAR<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2004<\/td>\nCharles Thomas<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n70<\/td>\n2.0 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nEli Marrero<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n47<\/td>\n1.7 WAR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Castilla had the worst full-season WAR of his career \u2013 his entire 16-year career \u2013 in the first year of the experiment, at -1.5, a net 7.6 point drop from Chipper\u2019s 5.9 WAR in 2001. He did, however, improve in 2003 to 1.9 WAR, while infusing some stability into the lineup courtesy of playing more games in both of his seasons in Atlanta than the Braves four primary left fielders before Chipper\u2019s move. Chipper, in turn, carried his stability to left field, playing full seasons at high levels, with 5.9 and 3.9 WAR, respectively, before replacing Mark DeRosa as the primary third baseman in 2004.<\/p>\n

Perhaps these stats are simply indicative of his gravity \u2013 is it fair to even make these comparisons? Yes, if the justification of uprooting your franchise player from his most familiar position is boosting your offense. Avoiding the distraction of shifting positions is part of why Young, who for years mastered the utility role, initially balked at the Rangers request to accommodate Elvis Andrus<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

These numbers did represent declines for Chipper, and it\u2019s arguable that, in addition to costing him some All-Star appearances, some of the leg injuries he sustained later in his career could have been related to playing a new, rangier position \u2013 one he had abandoned for third base after a season-ending injury in 1994. The shift also marred his career positional value. Though Chipper was not an elite fielder \u2013 he never won a Gold Glove \u2013 he was a decent fielder, averaging a 1.4 positional value and maintaining positive stats in this category every season in his career except those spent in left field, when he totaled a -14.2 positional value (seasonal average of -4.73).<\/p>\n

Regardless, Castilla went back to Colorado as a free agent after 2003, and Chipper returned to the playoffs multiple times and even reinvented himself late in his career, winning a batting title in 2008 at age 36.<\/p>\n

So, what does this mean, if anything, for Freeman and Adams, a player acquired with far less risk than Castilla was by a Braves team with slightly more desperation than their 2001 counterparts? Freeman\u2019s return is drastically ahead of schedule and, interestingly, the Braves have made up ground in both the NL East and Wild Card races. While a postseason appearance would be a pleasant surprise, it\u2019s not totally out of the cards.<\/p>\n

Adams\u2019 six-year total of 5.0 WAR doesn\u2019t come close to Freeman\u2019s eight-season line of 23.4, but that\u2019s probably not fair, as we honestly don\u2019t have a reliable sample size from Adams\u2019 career. He hasn\u2019t played with enough regularity. This season, now playing every day, Adams was actually 21st in the league among first basemen, just under 1.0 WAR coming into the July 4\u00a0tilt with the Astros, while the two-time All-Star Freeman is still fourth in the league at 2.6 WAR, despite spending weeks on the DL (neither has enough plate appearances to qualify for the league lead).<\/p>\n

A balance must be drawn in modern baseball by exploiting the value of data and sabermetrics while acknowledging the value of the traditional \u201ceyeball test\u201d \u2013 if a player is hot, keep him in the lineup.<\/p>\n

For Adams, this may be the big break he needs to cement everyday status and showcase his value against both right- and left-handed pitchers. Atlanta is willing to make moves to get him at-bats. He\u2019s on pace to set career-highs in multiple offensive categories, is by all public reports a good fit in the clubhouse, and is performing at a high level, helping bring Atlanta back to playing .500 ball. Freeman, though, was raking before his injury, continuing his stellar production from 2016. He is also unarguably the most important player on the Braves roster. He must play, and he will hit.<\/p>\n

The Braves will not mortgage Freeman\u2019s long-term health and ability for a novelty experiment with Adams, who\u2019s eligible for his last year of arbitration in 2018, in a year they\u2019ll be hard-pressed to catch the Washington Nationals or any of the Wild Card contenders in the NL West. Yet, the allure of drawing out Adams\u2019 full potential is intriguing, and the transition is definitely happening (to the delight of Freeman\u2019s fantasy owners). It\u2019s a creative solution to a good problem to have.<\/p>\n

The Braves have signed off on Freeman\u2019s quick rehab and recovery, and have given the player tremendous latitude on his own future and the team\u2019s present-day lineup. Still, their review of Freeman\u2019s ability to play third base must be exhaustive and belabored, with a short leash on this experiment should it prove too risky or should Adams\u2019 production falter.<\/p>\n

There’s no statistically significant measurement of a baseball player\u2019s willingness to support his team\u2019s best interests, but Freeman\u2019s offer to man the hot corner instantly puts him among the league leaders in that category.<\/p>\n

* All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.<\/em><\/p>\n

Main Photo:<\/p>\n

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Embed from Getty Images<\/a><\/div>\n