{"id":36979,"date":"2020-08-18T17:17:10","date_gmt":"2020-08-18T21:17:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/?p=36979"},"modified":"2020-08-18T17:17:10","modified_gmt":"2020-08-18T21:17:10","slug":"archie-bradley-top-closer-arizona-diamondbacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2020\/08\/18\/archie-bradley-top-closer-arizona-diamondbacks\/","title":{"rendered":"Archie Bradley Has Become a Top Closer"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><strong>Archie Bradley Has Become a Top Closer<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><em>(Author\u2019s Note: This article uses the Goose Egg statistic. Nate Silver invented the statistic for clutch late-inning performance, explaining it <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In June of 2019, <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/arizona-diamondbacks\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> reliever <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/bradlar01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Archie Bradley<\/a><\/strong> was in one of the toughest stretches of his career. He had pitched well in 2017, posting a 1.73 ERA (38 ERA-) as a set-up man for <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/r\/rodnefe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fernando Rodney<\/a><\/strong>. During the Wild Card Game against the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/colorado-rockies\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Colorado Rockies<\/a>, he made up for a so-so pitching outing by cracking a crucial two-run triple, the only postseason triple ever hit by a reliever. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/archie-bradley-dealing-with-fingernail-issue-c281982034\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">battled a split fingernail<\/a> on his right index finger in 2018, a devastating injury for a pitcher whose top off-speed pitch is a knucklecurve. He started well in 2019, posting a 1.93 ERA (44 ERA-) as a set-up man for <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hollagr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Greg Holland<\/a><\/strong> in the first six weeks of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Then May hit.<\/p>\n<p>The six weeks from May 4 to June 22 were a nightmare for Bradley as he gave up 19 earned runs in 21 innings for an 8.14 ERA (185 ERA-). He also gave up 28 hits and 14 walks \u2013 a 2.000 WHIP. His command had gone out the window, and his confidence was fading fast. \u201cNot that I was the worst pitcher ever, but I was pretty bad,\u201d Bradley told reporters in August of 2019. \u201cI really did not have any clue where the ball was going.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He turned it around over the next month. From June 26 to July 26, he dazzled, allowing six hits and six walks over 11 innings for a 1.091 WHIP. Most importantly, his ERA was 0.00. This became even more important when Holland fell apart and lost his job.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Archie Bradley Becomes the Closer \u2013 and a Darn Good One<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Although manager <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/l\/lovulto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Torey Lovullo<\/a><\/strong> did not officially give Bradley the title of \u201ccloser\u201d until much later, Bradley took over as the go-to guy in late innings on July 30 in Yankee Stadium. He pitched 1 1\/3 perfect innings to close out a 4-2 victory and earn a save.<\/p>\n<p>During his slump, he worked with the coaches, catchers, and analytics expert on his mechanics, sequencing, and location. This included Lovullo, bullpen coach <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/f\/fettemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mike Fetters<\/a><\/strong>, then-pitching coach <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/butchmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mike Butcher<\/a><\/strong>, then-catcher <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/a\/avilaal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alex Avila<\/a><\/strong>, catcher <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/kellyca02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Carson Kelly<\/a><\/strong>, and analytics head <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=fitzgmi02,fitzgmi03&amp;search=Mike+Fitzgerald&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mike Fitzgerald<\/a><\/strong>. He credited all of them with helping him both get back into form and regain his confidence.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, he has been magnificent. He has pitched 33 games, finishing 31 of them. In 34 2\/3 innings, he has converted 24 of 26 save opportunities (92%). His Goose Egg statistics were just as, if not even more, impressive, as he notched 21 Goose Eggs (GE) to go against one Broken Egg (BE) and six Mehs (M). The historical average ratio (back to 1921) of GE to BE is 3-to-1. Bradley\u2019s ratio is 21-to-1. In addition, he has a solid 1.154 WHIP, a 2.60 ERA (58 ERA-), 7.27 hits per nine (H\/9), 0.52 homers per nine (HR\/9), 3.12 walks per nine (BB\/9), 8.83 strikeouts per nine (K\/9), and 2.34 extra-base hits per nine (XBH\/9).<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Comparing Bradley to the League\u2019s Best<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>These numbers are all good and well, but numbers mean little without context, so let\u2019s compare them to the top closers in the game. For this study, we\u2019ll use the stats from July 30, 2019 to the present for six of the best closers in the majors: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/chapmar01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Aroldis Chapman<\/a><\/strong> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/new-york-yankees\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">New York Yankees<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/haderjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Josh Hader<\/a><\/strong> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/milwaukee-brewers\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Milwaukee Brewers<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hendrli01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Liam Hendriks<\/a><\/strong> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/oakland-athletics\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Oakland Athletics<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/i\/iglesra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Raisel Iglesias<\/a><\/strong> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/cincinnati-reds\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cincinnati Reds<\/a>, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/j\/janseke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kenley Jansen<\/a><\/strong> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/los-angeles-dodgers\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a>, and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/melanma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mark Melancon<\/a><\/strong> of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonbaseball.com\/mlb-teams\/atlanta-braves\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Atlanta Braves<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>(Author\u2019s Note: Don\u2019t \u201cWhere\u2019s (name of closer not on the list)?\u201d me. I\u2019m not playing that game. These are the six I picked, and I picked them because they have been toward the top on all of the leaderboards for closers over this span. Moving on.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/onedrive.live.com\/embed?resid=AF62A2DD5084DD25%2118090&amp;authkey=%21AFlAu-ouCXteH9Y&amp;em=2&amp;wdAllowInteractivity=False&amp;Item='Team'!A1%3ACE34&amp;wdInConfigurator=True\" width=\"400\" height=\"268\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Bradley compares favorably to these six \u2013 a group that, along with Bradley, we\u2019ll call the Magnificent Seven in deference to the classic film. He is third in save percentage behind Chapman and Melancon, both of whom have converted every save opportunity to finish in a first-place tie. His GE% is toward the bottom, but that is saved by his BE%, which is second to Chapman, who has zero BE.<\/p>\n<p>The next few are interesting. Bradley\u2019s WHIP, H\/9, BB\/9, K\/9, and opponent batting average are all towards the bottom \u2013 seventh, sixth, fifth, seventh, and sixth, respectively. Yet this has not hurt him \u2013 his ERA- is third, trailing only Chapman (24 ERA-) and Hendriks (48 ERA-). Why is this?<\/p>\n<h3><strong>The Reason for the Success of Archie Bradley<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The naysayers will say, \u201cSee! I told you! He\u2019s just been lucky!\u201d Well, no he hasn\u2019t. Bradley pitches in such a way that batters rarely hit the ball with good contact. Many of the balls put in play are on the ground. Consequently, Bradley has the second-lowest HR\/9 of the Magnificent Seven, trailing only Melancon. He also has the third lowest XBH\/9 behind Chapman and Melancon.<\/p>\n<p>Keeping the ball in the ballpark is big and keeping it out of gaps in the outfield is even bigger. This means that the hits he gives up are singles, by and large. That makes the next stat even more important, and this is one of the biggest keys to his success \u2013 grounding into double plays (GDP). Bradley has induced six double-play grounders \u2013 as many as the other six <strong>combined.<\/strong> Furthermore, his GDP is three times as high as the second-place finisher, and his rate of GDP per nine is almost three times as high (1.56 to 0.63).<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Historical Comparison<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Closers do not need to be flame-throwing strikeout artists to be good, although most present-day closers fit the mold. Melancon is not in that mold, and he\u2019s been among the league\u2019s best for several years now. Hall of Famer <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/r\/riverma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Mariano Rivera<\/a><\/strong> \u2013 widely considered to be the best closer in MLB history \u2013 was known for throwing a cutter so devastating that batters rarely made solid contact.<\/p>\n<p>Bradley\u2019s bread-and-butter is weak contact and ground balls, just like another Hall of Fame closer \u2013 <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/f\/fingero01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rollie Fingers<\/a><\/strong>. Fingers had a heavy sinker that induced many groundball outs. He was another one who kept the ball in the ballpark and kept it out of gaps. He did not strike many out, either, but he induced a lot of double plays. In fact, their career numbers in rate stats are quite similar, with the exception of GDP\/9.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/onedrive.live.com\/embed?resid=AF62A2DD5084DD25%2118095&amp;authkey=%21AMOcSqxGPfyJJWE&amp;em=2&amp;wdAllowInteractivity=False&amp;Item='Sheet1'!A1%3AH3&amp;wdInConfigurator=True\" width=\"400\" height=\"100\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><strong>One of the Top Closers in the Game<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Archie Bradley is quickly becoming one of the top closers in the game. So far in 2020, it has translated to a tie with Jansen for the National League lead in saves (six). The fact that he does so without blowing hitters away with a blazing fastball makes him sneak under the radar. However, the fact that he gives up few home runs and extra-base hits, coupled with his ability to produce groundball double plays, makes him very difficult to beat in the final innings.<\/p>\n<p>Lovullo could not say enough good things about Archie in a press conference on August 17. \u201cArchie is extremely reliable and in a good spot right now. He always has a very good headspace because he looks at himself realistically and never gets in his own way. I love my conversations with Archie \u2013 I\u2019ve loved him since Day One. He\u2019s been extremely honest with me, and, in turn, he\u2019s very honest with himself, (knowing) exactly who he is and what he wants to get to. The success that he\u2019s having right now does not surprise me. He has been good and ready for this challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The fact that Bradley did this after reaching such a low point in 2019 has impressed many, and Lovullo is among them. \u201cLet\u2019s remember what he walked through. He walked through some really difficult times where there was probably some self-doubt about being able to execute a game plan. But he righted himself because of those reasons that I told you \u2013 him realistically looking at things. He is on a full charge right now to be as good as he possibly can, and he\u2019s having great results.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Outlook<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>For a Diamondbacks team that has suddenly caught fire, this will give them another great weapon to use going forward. After starting 3-8, they have gone 9-3 and are leading the National League Wild Card standings. His play will be key down the stretch, and although Lovullo isn\u2019t surprised by his success, he also knows that if Bradley hits another lull, he\u2019ll work his tail off to get out of it. \u201cThis is exactly who we (the coaching staff) thought he would be, and we felt like if he wasn\u2019t, he was going to work extremely hard to figure out why he wasn\u2019t and be able to go out and execute that plan.\u201d What an inspiration to the rest of the team.<\/p>\n<p><em>All statistics were compiled by the author from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Baseball Reference<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fangraphs<\/a>. They run up to and including games from August 16, 2020.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Main Photo<br \/>\n<a id=\"Va3BKsz8TPNAjLawSIrgIQ\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/1263089891\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'Va3BKsz8TPNAjLawSIrgIQ',sig:'gUfBH4CSu84h04ir-M07Ur2VoOzl4d0AhUW1I7noTHU=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1263089891',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Archie Bradley Has Become a Top Closer (Author\u2019s Note: This article uses the Goose Egg statistic. Nate Silver invented the statistic for clutch late-inning performance, explaining it here.) In June of 2019, Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Archie Bradley was in one of the toughest stretches of his career. He had pitched well in 2017, posting a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2901,"featured_media":36981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[29,2,1071],"tags":[1334,326,209,2182,432,906,486,127],"class_list":["post-36979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-diamondbacks","category-featured","category-mlb","tag-archie-bradley","tag-arizona-diamondbacks","tag-aroldis-chapman","tag-josh-hader","tag-kenley-jansen","tag-liam-hendriks","tag-mark-melancon","tag-raisel-iglesias"],"modified_by":"Evan Thompson","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2901"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36979"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36979\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}