{"id":125698,"date":"2026-07-12T22:11:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T02:11:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=125698"},"modified":"2026-07-12T22:11:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T02:11:59","slug":"surprising-day-one-2026-mlb-draft-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/07\/12\/surprising-day-one-2026-mlb-draft-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"Unanticipated Picks from Day One of the 2026 MLB Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Months of preparation and deliberation have officially paid off for MLB front offices, as the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/07\/12\/pirates-draft-curiel\/\" target=\"_self\">2026 MLB Draft<\/a> has come to a close. Beyond the intensive scouting on each player, each pick also comes with a conversation about the signing bonus, which can get lost in scouting publications and fans&#8217; mock drafts.<\/p>\n<p>While player rankings are constantly updated throughout draft season, behind-the-scenes developments can cause the actual draft to unfold very differently than the rankings would suggest. The &#8217;26 draft was no different. After the first four picks went as expected, fans saw multiple players hear their names called a lot sooner or later than originally expected. Now, just because a player went higher than his projection suggested does not necessarily mean it was a bad pick, but for those who read mock drafts for 12 months, it can certainly raise some eyebrows.<\/p>\n<h2>Surprising 2026 MLB Draft Risers<\/h2>\n<figure id=\"attachment_125718\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-125718\" style=\"width: 2048px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/USATSI_28631015-1.webp\" alt=\"Texas Tech's Logan Hughes runs to first after an at-bat against Abilene Christian during a non-conference Division I baseball game, Tuesday, March 31, 2026, at Rip Griffin Park.\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1573\" class=\"size-full wp-image-125718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/USATSI_28631015-1.webp 2048w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/USATSI_28631015-1-768x590.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-125718\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Texas Tech&#8217;s Logan Hughes runs to first after an at-bat against Abilene Christian during a non-conference Division I baseball game, Tuesday, March 31, 2026, at Rip Griffin Park. CREDIT: \u00a9 Nathan Giese\/Avalanche-Journal \/ USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It did not take long for a team to draft a player who was not typically seen among the top-10 picks in mock drafts. With the sixth overall pick, the Kansas City Royals selected <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=rose--000zio\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Zion Rose<\/a>, an outfielder out of the University of Louisville. Rose was ranked the 30th-best player in the class by MLB Pipeline prior to the draft, but given his athleticism and raw talent, it&#8217;s not very shocking that a team would go after him in the top 10.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The moment a childhood dream comes true.<a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/zionroseball54?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@zionroseball54<\/a> x <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Royals?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@Royals<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/GoCards?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">#GoCards<\/a> | <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/MLBDraft?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">#MLBDraft<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/k3pG55LtAZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/k3pG55LtAZ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Louisville Baseball (@LouisvilleBSB) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/LouisvilleBSB\/status\/2076306220089032961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>With that, the two biggest first-round shocks came between picks 17 and 20. At 17, the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/07\/12\/astros-first-round-picks\/\" target=\"_self\">Astros took outfielder Logan Hughes<\/a> out of Texas Tech. <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=hughes002log\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Hughes<\/a> was widely considered a second-round pick, but given his bat-to-ball skills, this reads as Houston playing it safe with their first selection.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Absolutely mammoth shot from Texas Tech OF Logan Hughes. Continues to trend more firmly into the first round.<\/p>\n<p>Among the most complete offensive profiles in the country.<\/p>\n<p>No. 19 ranked prospect for the 2026 Draft.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc47Top 300 &amp; Comprehensive Reports\ud83d\udc47<a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lpcMpBuV5o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/lpcMpBuV5o<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Over-Slot Baseball (@OverSlot_) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/OverSlot_\/status\/2046761838055215165?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">April 22, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A few picks after Hughes came off the board, the Boston Red Sox also decided to take a college bat, selecting shortstop <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=schaff000jak\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jake Schaffner<\/a> out of North Carolina. This was a pick that no one outside of the organization saw coming. Schaffner entered the draft ranked as the <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/milb\/prospects\/draft\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">75th best prospect in the class, according to MLB Pipeline<\/a>, so this may come off as playing it too safe in the first round. Scouts don&#8217;t see Schaffner sticking at shortstop in pro ball, so while his speed and ability to drive the ball from gap to gap are impressive, there were other college bats that made more sense at pick 20.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8 1st Round Pick \ud83d\udea8<\/p>\n<p>Former Madison Mallards infielder Jake Schaffner (2023, 2024) was selected 20th Overall by the Boston Red Sox in the 1st Round of the 2026 MLB Draft.<\/p>\n<p>Congratulations, Jake! \ud83d\udc4f\u26be <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aQVBwgiX5X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/aQVBwgiX5X<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Northwoods League Baseball (@NWLbaseball) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NWLbaseball\/status\/2076421433580818633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As soon as the first round ended, the Atlanta Braves quickly showed they couldn&#8217;t care less about consensus player rankings, which, with their track record of homegrown talent, feels understandable. With their PPI pick from <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/baldwdr01.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Drake Baldwin<\/a> winning the Rookie of the Year, Atlanta selected <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=beck--002car\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Carter Beck<\/a> from Indiana State. Beck was the MVC Player of the Year this past season, and while he was ranked 149th by PerfectGame, analytic-heavy teams, such as Atlanta, could not care less, since he had some of the best contact rates and exit-velocity averages in the class.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Carter Beck is the Braves\u2019 selection at 26!<\/p>\n<p>Beck is extremely athletic who would profile as slightly above average across the board. Does not swing and miss much and started to get into some power last year.<\/p>\n<p>B2B underslot selections means fun is otw. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/etLCMmT6zS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/etLCMmT6zS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Taylor Greenhut (@TGreenhutOD) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TGreenhutOD\/status\/2076031064632377693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Surprising 2026 MLB Draft Fallers<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"max-width: px\"><smartframe-embed class=\"smartframe_wp_element\" customer-id=\"b0c95bc04383cef69c6b47df872135cf\" image-id=\"WmOBMdtcw4R4\" style=\"width: 100%; display: inline-flex; max-width: 3649px; aspect-ratio: 3649\/2433;\" ><\/smartframe-embed><\/p>\n<p>Differences in signing bonuses can cause many mock-draft darlings to land later than expected. <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/04\/30\/the-lombard-family-tree-baseball\/\" target=\"_self\">Jacob Lombard<\/a> was the first big example of this: he was widely mocked as a top-five pick in the two months leading up to the draft, but he didn&#8217;t come off the board until Miami picked him at 14.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Miami Marlins are selecting Jacob Lombard with the No. 14 pick in the 2026 MLB draft.<\/p>\n<p>Lombard&#8217;s slide stops here as he&#8217;ll stay in the state of Florida with the Marlins. Great prospect to have fall in the laps of the fish. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bJuRUMEC70\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/bJuRUMEC70<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tobey Schulman (@tschulmanreport) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/tschulmanreport\/status\/2076014412666700165?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Another prep player, Gio Rojas, considered the top prep arm in the class, heard his name called 16th overall by the Texas Rangers, a team many scouting publications seemed to believe would never have the chance to draft. That was a recurring theme for the Rangers, though, as they scooped up prep lefty <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/05\/11\/brody-bumila-mlb-draft\/\" target=\"_self\">Brody Bumila in the third round<\/a>. MLB Pipeline&#8217;s final rankings had Bumila as the 23rd player in the class, but news of an elbow injury caused the flamethrower to fall to the 89th overall pick.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With the No. 89 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, the Rangers select Brody Bumila \ud83d\udd25<\/p>\n<p>The 5-star prep lefthander ranks No. 64 in our BA 500. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FZT1gOWV0A\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/FZT1gOWV0A<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BaseballAmerica\/status\/2076070862134927684?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The third round was also when college standouts <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=sorrel001cad\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Caden Sorrell<\/a> and <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=strosn000saw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sawyer Strosnider<\/a> had their falls come to an end. Sorrell was a top-35 prospect heading into the draft, but his swing-and-miss problems allowed the Cubs to get him with pick 62. Strosnider was considered a surefire top-15 pick heading into the 2026 college baseball season, but after he finished with lower SLG and OBP than in his freshman year, Milwaukee added him to their already strong farm system with the 66th pick.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With their 2026 second-round pick, the Chicago Cubs are drafting Caden Sorrell, an OF out of Texas A&amp;M.<\/p>\n<p>In 2026:<br \/>\n.341\/.434\/.743 \u2014 1.177 OPS<br \/>\n23 HR | 67 R | 76 RBI | 11 SB<\/p>\n<p>Shows plus power and speed, though there are swing-and-miss concerns. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Rdjin53Jth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/Rdjin53Jth<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Carson Wolf (@TheWrigleyWire) <a  href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TheWrigleyWire\/status\/2076050897101316562?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>Main Image Credit:<\/strong> Dylan Widger-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Months of preparation and deliberation have officially paid off for MLB front offices, as the 2026 MLB Draft has come to a close. Beyond the intensive scouting on each player, each pick also comes with a conversation about the signing bonus, which can get lost in scouting publications and fans&#8217; mock drafts. While player rankings [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5819,"featured_media":125719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1071,29143,29576],"tags":[29664,29662,29665,29661,29585,29657,1290,29663,29666],"class_list":["post-125698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-mlb","category-mlb-draft","category-ncaa-baseball","tag-brody-bumila","tag-caden-sorrell","tag-carter-beck","tag-jacob-lombard","tag-jake-schaffner","tag-logan-hughes","tag-mlb-draft","tag-sawyer-strosnider","tag-zion-rose"],"modified_by":"Matthew Nethercott, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5819"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125698"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125698\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":125720,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125698\/revisions\/125720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/125719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}