The San Diego Padres have endured a brutal stretch lately. They recently ended an eight-game losing streak with their win against the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, they went back to their losing ways almost immediately. The club was shut out by Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday night. Not only that, starter Walker Buehler surrendered seven runs after giving up nine to the Chicago Cubs in his last start. He’s now surrendered 16 runs between his last two outings, adding to the heap of San Diego’s struggles.<\/p>\n
But one recent positive development has been team captain Manny Machado’s<\/a> power surge. After the Padres struggled to produce home runs in 2025, the club has turned a corner this year. That said, it’s come at a cost, with the Friars ranking dead last in batting average. It’s a sharp downturn from the brand of offense that San Diego has become known for in recent years.<\/p>\n Machado had one of the worst starts<\/a> to a season in his career this year. 2026 has been wildly concerning for the 34-year-old third baseman. The Padres’ captain is still batting below .200 entering play on Tuesday, and he has struggled with situational hitting. He just hasn’t been the same at capitalizing in big situations as he used to be. More than that, Machado has looked bad at the plate. The veteran hasn’t seemed to have a great approach at the dish, striking out a ridiculously high clip and having horrible plate discipline.<\/p>\n The power has certainly taken a downturn as well. Machado owns a career .275\/.335\/.483 slash line with an .818 OPS. That’s due to a 17-year career in which Machado has been incredibly consistent at the plate. He’s never batted below .250 in a season and has slugged double-digit home runs every year apart from his rookie 2012 season. That said, Machado only played 51 games in 2012 and hit seven home runs. If he had played a full season at that pace, he would have easily hit 20-plus bombs.<\/p>\n Machado had still managed to run into a few this season, but they didn’t look good. They weren’t quite as legendary as those vintage Manny Machado dingers with his signature stagger step after he follows through. Instead, the home runs looked more like pure luck for Machado. But recently that hasn’t been the case.<\/p>\n Taking a look at the pace Machado’s on yields some interesting results. In order to give an accurate estimate for the slugger’s eventual home run total, I created this equation:<\/p>\n (2026 Home Run Total \/ At-Bats<\/span>) x <\/span>600<\/span><\/p>\n 600 is the assumed number of at-bats that Machado will have for the remainder of the season. That’s a pretty conservative estimate considering Machado is on pace to play in 157 games this year (yielding roughly 660 at-bats). Basing the equation from different points in his season allows for different results. For example, looking at Machado’s overall season puts him on pace for 34 homers. When looking at his recent output, the third baseman has slugged eight home runs in his last 30 games, five across the last 15 and three in the last seven games. Machado has continued to produce with increased power as the season has gone on.<\/p>\n Using the different paces of that recent success, Machado could slug up to 50 home runs this season. The smaller sample sizes certainly produce different variations of success, but the projections remain either way. With Machado’s eight homers in his last 30 games, that pace projects him to hit 38 home runs by the end of the year.<\/p>\n It’s a sharp turnaround from the tough start that Machado had to begin the season. Using the pace of his last 15 games, the third baseman’s projections rise to 46 dingers. With the results of his last seven games, Machado is on pace for a ridiculous 53 home runs. It would be the first time that the slugger ever eclipsed 40 or 50 homers.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Manny Machado clubs a 3-run homer on #SundayNightBaseball<\/a> \ud83d\udcaa pic.twitter.com\/LgBf4DTiTA<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 MLB (@MLB) July 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\nThe Rough Stretch to Start the Year<\/h2>\n
A Recent Uptick for Machado<\/h2>\n
Projecting His Final Total<\/h2>\n
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