{"id":125007,"date":"2026-07-02T12:20:16","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T16:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=125007"},"modified":"2026-07-02T12:20:16","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T16:20:16","slug":"whats-wrong-with-skenes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/07\/02\/whats-wrong-with-skenes\/","title":{"rendered":"Theorizing What\u2019s Wrong With Paul Skenes Amid His Recent Struggles"},"content":{"rendered":"

Paul Skenes<\/a> was lights out in his 2024 Rookie of the Year campaign and his subsequent 2025 Cy Young<\/a> season. The right-hander entered 2026 as one of, if not the best, pitchers in baseball (at least the best right-handed starter in the game), and his first nine starts looked just like the pitcher many are used to. Through May 12, Skenes owned a 1.98 ERA, struck out 30.3% of opponents, and had a microscopic 3.8% BB%. His 0.64 WHIP was the lowest in the sport, with the next closest mark, Cam Schlittler<\/a>, coming in at 0.81.<\/p>\n

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However, Skenes is facing his first adversity in Major League Baseball. His last nine starts have seen him struggle for the most part. He has a 5.36 ERA, along with a WHIP more than double his previous mark at 1.40. Skenes still has a strong 30% K%, but his walk rate has risen to 7.1%, and his HR\/9 went from 0.72 to 1.34. Opponents are finding more hard contact vs Skenes, as his exit velocity and barrel rate went from 85.7 MPH and 4.2% in his first nine starts to 90.4 MPH and 8.6% in his last nine outings. So let\u2019s throw out some reasons why he is struggling.<\/p>\n

What’s Going On With Paul Skenes<\/a>?<\/h2>\n

WBC Fatigue<\/h3>\n

Skenes made two starts for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic<\/a>. He tossed a lot of pitches in both starts, and at 100% effort. His first start took place on March 9 against Team Mexico. Skenes threw 60 pitches, averaging 97.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball, which he threw 20 times. During his next outing on March 15 against Team Dominican Republic, Skenes threw even more pitches, tallying 71, and averaging 97.6 MPH on 29 fastballs.<\/p>\n

It was very much a different ramp-up for Skenes than he was used to. He only made one Spring Training start before pitching for Team USA. Of course, the number of pitches and how hard he was throwing aren\u2019t the only factors. The intensity of throwing in a WBC game compared to a Spring Training game is very different. Skenes treated the WBC game like it was the playoffs, whereas the purpose of a Spring Training game is to warm up and stretch out. Plus, the routine and training between the WBC and Spring Training differ significantly. Not having the normal warm-up and routine could be affecting Skenes now.<\/p>\n

Playing Through An Injury<\/h3>\n

An injury affecting Skenes\u2019 effectiveness is a possibility. His spin rate<\/a> from the start of the year on his three primary pitches is way down. His fastball averaged out at 2261 RPM in April, and below 2000 in his first start in July. His sweeper, which started at 2436 RPM, hit just 2170 in his last start. That is two pitches that he uses regularly that have lost over 200 RPM from the start of the season. His overall Stuff+ this year is 99, a significant fall from 110 last year.<\/p>\n

Skenes\u2019 fastball velocity in his most recent start is certainly a potential reason for concern. He came out of the gate, averaging 97.2 MPH in the first inning. However, by the fourth inning, he averaged just 95 MPH with the same pitch. Now it is worth mentioning that the weather conditions certainly did not favor Skenes. He was throwing extra pitches because of bad defense in warm, high-humidity weather. However, a 2.2 MPH drop from the first to the fourth inning should raise at least a few red flags. Plus, Skenes isn’t unaccustomed to pitching in this sort of heat. After all, he is from Fullerton, California, and drafted out of Louisiana State University, two states that aren’t particularly known for cool weather.<\/p>\n

\"Paul
Apr 13, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Skenes is also missing his spots much more often than last year, and missing big. This year, he has thrown 33.5% of his pitches in the chase and waste areas of the zone, parts of the plate that batters should be laying off. That\u2019s about league average. However, he threw just 28.3% of pitches in the chase and waste areas in 2025. It\u2019s not uncommon for a player to play through a minor ailment, even if it affects his overall play.<\/p>\n

Trying Too Hard To Work Around A Bad Defense<\/h3>\n

It\u2019s no secret that the Pirates\u2019 defense is bad. They have the tenth fewest defensive runs saved at -2, ninth fewest outs above average at -13, fifth fewest fielding runs at -16, and the lowest defensive WAR at -2.9. Their bad play in the field has hurt Skenes more than any other pitcher in baseball, as defense has hurt them. Before his most recent start against the Philadelphia Phillies, Pirates defenders had -6 fielding runs during Skenes’ starts, the least among any qualified hurler in the sport.<\/p>\n

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No pitcher has received worse defense behind them this year than Paul Skenes has, which very much matches the eye test https:\/\/t.co\/xYOBuXOTRE<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/R4N0VPlTbO<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) June 29, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Skenes has seemingly attempted to counteract that in multiple ways. He\u2019s using his change-up more frequently, as it has become his second most-used offering. It also has a 39.1% whiff rate, the second-highest mark among his pitches. It has consistently been one of his highest-whiff pitches. However, despite that, it is his only offering with a negative run value this season. Plus, his increased change-up usage has made his splitter\/splinker take a back seat<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The second way is by throwing outside the zone more frequently. If it isn’t an injury causing him to throw in the waste and chase parts of the zone, then it\u2019s intentional for a reason. Skenes is attempting to get more chases and avoid as much hard contact as possible to make it as easy on the defense as possible. This could explain why he has had trouble consistently hitting the zone and feels like he is trying to stay on the edges. It\u2019s possible that this counteraction has not worked as well as hoped, between using a negative run value pitch more frequently and failing to get as many chases as hoped.<\/p>\n

A Mechanical Change<\/h3>\n

Skenes has made some slight adjustments to his mechanics. He has slightly raised his arm angle from 2024 and 2025, when he sat at around 23 degrees, and is now at 26 degrees in 2026. He is also throwing with more extension than ever before at 6.8 feet. When Skenes first came to the Major Leagues, he sat around 6.4 feet, and upped that to 6.7 feet last year. He has also made some slight tweaks to his wind-up. He may still be getting used to them, which is causing some struggles with location. This may not be a Pirates’ coaching<\/a> or Billy Murphy initiative, rather something Skenes is doing on his own, as it is very unlikely the Pirates as a organization are trying to change Skenes that much.<\/p>\n

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Paul Skenes, 100mph Fastball (2025\/Light Hat) vs. 94mph Fastball (2026\/Black Hat), mechanics. pic.twitter.com\/OxxkOJk3zl<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Real Answer<\/h3>\n

The real answer is that there probably isn\u2019t a single thing affecting Skenes. It\u2019s more than likely that it is a combination of all of these reasons that are affecting Skenes\u2019 play, including some fatigue from an unusual ramp-up, working around poor defense, and getting used to new mechanics, all while not at 100%. Some issues could be causing other issues, such as a change in mechanics and pitch usage to work around an injury. Hopefully, the All-Star break can help Skenes rest up and get things back on track. If the Pirates want any chance at making the playoffs this year, they need him to be his usual dominant self and what we’ve seen from Skenes from the start of his career up through about mid-May this season.<\/p>\n

Main Photo: Brad Penner- Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Paul Skenes was lights out in his 2024 Rookie of the Year campaign and his subsequent 2025 Cy Young season. The right-hander entered 2026 as one of, if not the best, pitchers in baseball (at least the best right-handed starter in the game), and his first nine starts looked just like the pitcher many are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5765,"featured_media":117156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"1241","footnotes":""},"categories":[1071,26],"tags":[6371],"class_list":["post-125007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","category-pirates","tag-paul-skenes"],"modified_by":"Andrew Willis","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5765"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125007"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":125013,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125007\/revisions\/125013"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}