{"id":122333,"date":"2026-05-20T14:26:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T18:26:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=122333"},"modified":"2026-05-20T14:26:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T18:26:36","slug":"pirates-off-to-convincing-and-skeptical-hot-starts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/05\/20\/pirates-off-to-convincing-and-skeptical-hot-starts\/","title":{"rendered":"Pirates Prospects Off to Interesting Starts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Pittsburgh Pirates have many success stories from their minor league system. After all, they entered 2026 with one of the best farms of any of the 30 teams, so there were bound to be some very good starts for multiple top prospects. However, given that all of their hot starts are small sample sizes, there are bound to be some more questionable than others. The Pirates have certainly seen that between these four prospects.<\/p>\n<h2>Pirates Prospects Off to Interesting Starts<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dkpittsburghsports.com\/img\/Pirates\/murf-gray-fresno-state16x9-1600x900.jpg\" alt=\"Pirates select Fresno State's Triston &quot;Murf&quot; Gray at No. 73\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Murf Gray<\/h3>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=gray--001tri\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Murf Gray<\/a> tore up A-Ball pitching. His first 166 plate appearances of the season saw him bat .359\/.436\/.606 with an astounding .470 wOBA, and 174 wRC+. Gray\u2019s 9% walk rate may not jump off the page, but he only struck out 18.1% of the time. The third base prospect went yard a total of eight times, resulting in an isolated slugging percentage of .246. That hot start recently earned Gray a promotion to High-A Greensboro. He immediately made a good first impression, going yard in his first game for the Grasshoppers. Gray is considered a hit-first corner infielder, so he\u2019ll need to bat to remain valuable.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">DEBUT HOME RUN for Murf Gray with the Grasshoppers!!<\/p>\n<p>First game as a Grasshopper \u2705<br \/>\nFirst home run as a Grasshopper \u2705 <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WOG45Owm9G\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/WOG45Owm9G<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Young Bucs (@YoungBucsPIT) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YoungBucsPIT\/status\/2057122747717656853?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">May 20, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\"><p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Gray\u2019s batting average on balls in play at Bradenton was higher than you\u2019d like to see, clocking in at .406. However, there is certainly reason to believe that he can sustain most, if not all, of his hot start. Gray hit the ball plenty with a 22.8% whiff rate and contact rate of 80.5% at Bradenton. His swinging strike rate clocked in below 10% at 9.1% as well. He also has above-average raw power and had a 12.2% barrel percentage. His xwOBA at A-Ball clocked in at .397. Among Statcast-tracked A-Ball hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this year, Gray had the highest xwOBA and the seventh-best barrel percentage.<\/p>\n<h3>Axiel Plaz<\/h3>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=plaz--000axi\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Axiel Plaz<\/a> is becoming one of, if not the Pirates\u2019 best catching prospect. After showing some promise in an injury-shortened 2025 season, the Pirates started Plaz at High-A Greensboro to open 2026. Despite his young age, as this is only his age-20 campaign, Plaz is knocking on Double-A Altoona\u2019s door. In 142 plate appearances, the catcher\/first baseman is batting .354\/.411\/.598, and has seven home runs. He has only walked in 6.3% of his plate appearances, but also has a solid 20.4% strikeout percentage. His production comes to a .441 wOBA and 152 wRC+.<\/p>\n<p>Making contact was always going to be the difference between Plaz figuring it out or flaming out. There\u2019s zero question he has the raw power to become a difference maker in a future Pirates lineup. His 92.3 MPH exit velocity last year at Bradenton was the third best among Statcast tracked A-Ball batters with at least 200 plate appearances. Now, he has upped his contact rate from 73.7% last year to 75.6% this season. His called and swinging strike rate has also fallen slightly from 26.8% to 24.2%.<\/p>\n<h3>Two To Be Skeptical<\/h3>\n<h3>Wyatt Sanford<\/h3>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/teams\/2016-pittsburgh-pirates\/prospects\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Baseball America<\/a> recently moved<a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=sanfor000wya\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Wyatt Sanford<\/a> up to the Pirates\u2019 third-best prospect. On the surface, his performance is definitely worthy of it. The infielder is batting .292\/.423\/.511 with a .422 wOBA, and 140 wRC+. He is hitting for plenty of power, with six home runs already through his first 171 plate appearances, and a .219 ISO. Plus, he is 16-for-17 in stolen base attempts. Sanford also projects as an above-average defensive middle infielder with a strong enough arm and good enough speed to stick at shortstop long term. His floor is a versatile infielder who can provide solid fielding and good baserunning. Plus, he is a switch-hitter.<\/p>\n<p>However, his production at the plate certainly has some major red flags. While Sanford is walking at a healthy 13.5% rate, he is also striking out over a third of the time. His K% comes in at 35.1%. He is not making contact at a consistent rate. His contact% comes in at just 60.5%. For reference, Joey Gallo\u2019s MLB career contact percentage was 60.6%. Sanford\u2019s swinging strike rate has skyrocketed from just 11.3% last year to 18.9% this year. His batting average on balls in play is an unsustainable .479. No MLB hitter has ever posted a BABIP over .450 in 200+ plate appearances.<\/p>\n<h3>Jared Jones<\/h3>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=jones-013jar\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jared Jones<\/a> (the first base prospect, not <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/05\/15\/pirates-jared-jones-role\/\" target=\"_self\">the right-handed pitcher who is nearing his MLB return<\/a>) was the Pirates\u2019 ninth-round pick last year. He demolished college pitching at Louisiana State University and has continued to do so at Greensboro. His first 142 plate appearances have yielded a strong .339\/.430\/.504 line. Known for his power, Jones has five home runs this year. Four of his five dingers have come in May. Overall, his bottom line comes to a .422 wOBA and 140 wRC+.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8Home Run Jared Jones! (5) \ud83d\udea8<\/p>\n<p>Another 2 hits tonight!<\/p>\n<p>.339 this season in Greensboro! <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/n7TgasMIaK\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/n7TgasMIaK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Christian \u271e (@CWolfPGH) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CWolfPGH\/status\/2056904528151163089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">May 20, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p>&nbsp;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If you thought Sanford was getting good batted ball luck, Jones looks like he\u2019s getting some luck from a four-leaf clover. His BABIP comes in at an utterly insane .493 mark. His elite raw power will likely help more batted balls go for hits, but not nearly 50% of non-home run batted balls. He makes more contact and is striking out less than Sanford, but his 68.7% contact percentage and 31% strikeout rate are still not good.<\/p>\n<p>Main Photo Credits: <span>Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Pittsburgh Pirates have many success stories from their minor league system. After all, they entered 2026 with one of the best farms of any of the 30 teams, so there were bound to be some very good starts for multiple top prospects. However, given that all of their hot starts are small sample sizes, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5765,"featured_media":122348,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"848","footnotes":""},"categories":[1071,26],"tags":[3718],"class_list":["post-122333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","category-pirates","tag-jared-jones"],"modified_by":"Evan Mazza, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5765"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=122333"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122333\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":122352,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122333\/revisions\/122352"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/122348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=122333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=122333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=122333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}