{"id":121976,"date":"2026-05-16T00:17:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T04:17:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=121976"},"modified":"2026-05-16T00:17:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T04:17:18","slug":"padres-manny-machado-slump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/05\/16\/padres-manny-machado-slump\/","title":{"rendered":"Amid Historic Slump, Padres Veteran Star Needs to Right the Ship"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/machama01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Manny Machado<\/a> has been one of the most consistent players in MLB since his 2012 debut. He&#8217;s rehabilitated an image from his younger days that cast him as a dirty player, becoming a clubhouse leader for the San Diego Padres. Since his debut, Machado has only posted three seasons in which he slugged less than 15 home runs (2012, 2013, 2014) and batted below .260 (2017, 2019, 2023).<\/p>\n<p class=\"alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 1200px\"><smartframe-embed class=\"smartframe_wp_element\" customer-id=\"b0c95bc04383cef69c6b47df872135cf\" image-id=\"WmOBwdREMXbe\" style=\"width: 100%; display: inline-flex; max-width: 3000px; aspect-ratio: 3000\/1986;\" ><\/smartframe-embed><\/p>\n<p>Strengthening his Hall of Fame case, Machado reached the 2,000 hit milestone. He&#8217;s one of just five active players who have achieved the feat. He&#8217;s on pace to reach 3,000 career hits and 500 career homers. Both are elusive in the majors, with only seven players ever achieving both feats. That list is made up of <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/a\/aaronha01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Hank Aaron<\/a>, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/p\/pujolal01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Albert Pujols<\/a>, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/mayswi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Willie Mays<\/a>, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=murraed02,murray005edd&amp;search=Eddie+Murray&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Eddie Murray<\/a>, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/cabremi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Miguel Cabrera<\/a>, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/search\/search.fcgi?pid=rodrial01,rodrig023ale,rodrig068ale,rodrig066ale,rodrig061ale,rodrig059ale,rodrig054ale,rodrig047ale,rodrig031ale&amp;search=Alex+Rodriguez&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alex Rodriguez<\/a>, and <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/p\/palmera01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rafael Palmeiro<\/a>. It&#8217;s a list that essentially certifies Hall of Fame status (that is, without any mitigating circumstances, like with the latter two).<\/p>\n<h2>Can Manny Machado Become a Productive Hitter Again?<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2019\/02\/19\/manny-machado-signs-padres\/\" target=\"_self\">Machado&#8217;s contract with the Padres<\/a> ends in 2033. To reach the 3,000-hit, 500-homer milestone, the third baseman doesn&#8217;t even need to do all that much to get there. To reach the hits milestone, Machado only needs to bat .200 over his final seven years (600 at-bats per season). The home run milestone is a little more difficult, though not by much. Machado needs to slug 15 home runs per year to reach the 500-homer plateau. The fact that he doesn&#8217;t need all that much to reach those milestones speaks to the incredible career Machado has had.<\/p>\n<h2>An Uncharacteristic Year<\/h2>\n<p>Machado is in the midst of what seems like the worst season of his career. That&#8217;s not entirely true, but it definitely feels that way. He has a .190\/.287\/.340 slash line entering play on Friday. That doesn&#8217;t look very good, but Machado is on pace for 23 home runs and 75 RBI. He is on pace for 114 hits, which would be a career low across a full season. He has been a part of what has been a <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/05\/12\/san-diego-padres-offense\/\" target=\"_self\">rough start for the Padres&#8217; offense<\/a>, particularly the star trio of Machado, <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/merrija01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jackson Merrill<\/a>, and <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/t\/tatisfe02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-05-15_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fernando Tatis Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Machado with his 6th of the year for the <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Padres?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@Padres<\/a>! <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UZdobyQq46\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/UZdobyQq46<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MLBONFOX\/status\/2053291025419100186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">May 10, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>For the first time in his entire career, Machado&#8217;s xwOBA (.306) is below league average, ranking in the 35th percentile. It&#8217;s also the first time since his debut in 2012 that the third baseman has a wRC+ below 100 (81). His fielding is still above average, but every offensive metric is down.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s been the bearer of\u00a0<em>some<\/em> bad luck, though not much. His .282 wOBA is extremely low, but it&#8217;s a little lower than his .306 xwOBA. His .227 expected batting average is certainly low, though not as bad as his actual .190 mark. The only good part about Machado&#8217;s offense so far has been his above-average walk rate (12.2 percent, 76th percentile). But his strikeout rate (22.1 percent), whiff rate (24.0 percent), and chase rate (28.9 percent) have been around league average.<\/p>\n<p>The problem has been his quality of contact (or lack thereof). Machado&#8217;s underlying metrics show that his contact has taken an abysmal turn. Since 2025, the average exit velocity (92.9 to 90.2 mph), barrel rate (12.9 to 6.2 percent), hard-hit rate (51.5 to 42.5 percent), sweet-spot rate (34.8 to 25.2 percent), bat speed (74.5 to 74.0 mph), and squared-up rate (26.6 to 20.7 percent) are <em>all<\/em> down. That&#8217;s a lot of numbers, but all that it means is that Machado&#8217;s contact has gone from above average to below average in an incredibly short timeline.<\/p>\n<h2>Turnaround in Sight?<\/h2>\n<p>It hasn&#8217;t looked good for Machado, and it&#8217;s possible that this is the beginning of the end for the star third baseman. But an interesting metric to look at is batting average on balls in play, in which he has a career-low .208 BABIP. Prior to this season, his lowest mark had been .265 (2017) in the category. That means Machado hasn&#8217;t done a great job of finding open space, making semi-decent contact, but hitting right at the fielders.<\/p>\n<p>It seems likely that Machado will turn it around, but the statistical argument for that isn&#8217;t strong. The belief that he can improve his season is based more on the past pedigree of Machado&#8217;s storied career than it is on any metric. He&#8217;s only one season removed from winning the Silver Slugger award, and just four years removed from finishing <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2022\/10\/30\/manny-machado-has-a-strong-case-to-win-the-nl-mvp\/\" target=\"_self\">runner-up for the National League MVP award<\/a>. Regardless, if Machado can somehow turn things around, it would be an incredible addition to a Padres offense that has struggled mightily this season.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Main Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Manny Machado has been one of the most consistent players in MLB since his 2012 debut. He&#8217;s rehabilitated an image from his younger days that cast him as a dirty player, becoming a clubhouse leader for the San Diego Padres. Since his debut, Machado has only posted three seasons in which he slugged less than [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5784,"featured_media":89459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1071,35,30],"tags":[625,328,2422,1625,2252,28952,43,277,1601,1722],"class_list":["post-121976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","category-news","category-padres","tag-albert-pujols","tag-alex-rodriguez","tag-eddie-murray","tag-fernando-tatis-jr","tag-hank-aaron","tag-jackson-merrill","tag-manny-machado","tag-miguel-cabrera","tag-rafael-palmeiro","tag-willie-mays"],"modified_by":"Lewis Masella, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5784"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121976"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121976\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":122017,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121976\/revisions\/122017"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}