{"id":118618,"date":"2026-04-12T22:32:51","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T02:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=118618"},"modified":"2026-04-12T22:32:51","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T02:32:51","slug":"oneil-cruz-whats-sustainable-what-isnt-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/04\/12\/oneil-cruz-whats-sustainable-what-isnt-what-to-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"What part’s of Oneil Cruz’s hot start are sustainable"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz<\/a> is off to a scorching hot start to 2026. He has 20 hits through his first 65 plate appearances of the season. Of those 20 knocks, eight have been extra base hits, including five home runs and three doubles. At the time of writing this, Cruz\u2019s 38 total bases are the fourth most in MLB, just three bases behind the league leader and division rival outfielder, Jordan Walker. Overall, Cruz is slashing .339\/.400\/.644, and is on an 11-game hit streak.<\/p>\n

This start is an extremely promising start for Cruz, who ended last year with an 86 wRC+ with a 59 wRC+ from the start of June through the end of the season. Even though it\u2019s still so early, what parts of Cruz\u2019s season thus far are sustainable, what isn\u2019t, and what can we expect from him overall?<\/p>\n

What is sustainable<\/h2>\n

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While it may be obvious, Oneil Cruz\u2019s<\/a> power is likely to hold up throughout the entire year. Cruz has always shown off some of the best raw power in baseball<\/a>. Last year, he had a 95.8 MPH exit velocity, 56.6% hard hit rate, and 17.9% barrel percentage. Not much has changed this year, with a 95.9 MPH exit velo, 57.9% hard hit percentage, and 18.4% barrel rate.<\/p>\n

There have been 92 instances of a batter having a barrel rate over 15% in at least 500 plate appearances in the Statcast Era (since 2015). The fewest home runs ever hit while having a barrel rate that high is 21, by Cruz last year and Bryce Harper in 2023. Every instance of a player having a barrel rate of at least 18% has hit 35 or more home runs.<\/p>\n

Cruz\u2019s power output also seems sustainable, given his launch angle sweet spot percentage and squared-up rate, which are significantly higher than last year. The slugger had just a 31.5% sweet spot rate and 21.8% squared up rate last season. Both were in the bottom 16th percentile of qualified hitters in 2025. However, his sweet spot rate is now up to 37.9% (79th percentile), and his squared-up rate is up to 26.3% (66th percentile).<\/p>\n

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Oneil Cruz just keeps on crushing baseballs \ud83d\ude24<\/p>\n

He homers on the third pitch of the game to open the scoring at Wrigley! pic.twitter.com\/M5l9kpkJHz<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n