{"id":116929,"date":"2026-03-28T23:14:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T03:14:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=116929"},"modified":"2026-03-28T23:14:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T03:14:15","slug":"mariners-starters-key-target-stats-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/03\/28\/mariners-starters-key-target-stats-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"One Key Target Stat for Each Mariners Starter This Season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Seattle Mariners&#8217; starting rotation has, for several years now, been one of the deepest in baseball. In a ballpark that suppresses offense, the Mariners front office has made a point of building one of the most talented pitching staffs in the league. If they stay healthy in 2026, the floor for this group is very high. Even if the offense regresses, they should be in pole position for back-to-back AL West titles. However, nothing is guaranteed over a full season. This article will look at one key stat for each starter that, if achieved, would signal a successful campaign and position the Mariners for a deep run in October.<!-- notionvc: 62daec48-f49d-44d5-8239-e43cdfd301f7 --><\/p>\n<h2>Key Target Stats for Each Mariners Starting Pitcher in 2026<\/h2>\n<h2>Logan Gilbert &#8211; Innings Pitched<\/h2>\n<h3>Season Target: 200+ for the Season<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/03\/14\/mariners-opening-day-starter-woo-vs-gilbert\/\" target=\"_self\">Given the nod on Opening Day<\/a> for both Seattle and <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/players\/logan-gilbert\/22250\/stats\/pitching\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Logan Gilbert<\/a>, this was an indicator that the Mariners could pursue a big extension in 2026. This is a massive year, and following a down 2025 season, he must prove he deserves a $200 million-plus contract. Gilbert will always possess some of the best swing and miss stuff in the league. Even in a sub-par year, he still put up elite strikeout %, whiff %, and walk %. His splitter is one of the best individual pitches in the league, with a xAVG of .099 and a whiff rate of above 50%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"max-width: 610px\"><smartframe-embed class=\"smartframe_wp_element\" customer-id=\"b0c95bc04383cef69c6b47df872135cf\" image-id=\"WmOBdYfCJl8u\" style=\"width: 100%; display: inline-flex; max-width: 4972px; aspect-ratio: 4972\/3456;\" ><\/smartframe-embed><\/p>\n<p>However, where he struggled was that he had no pitch to put the ball in play; his pitch count would balloon in the early innings, hitters would foul off or leave pitches out of the zone, and he would often be at 40-50 pitches after a couple of innings. Even with the injury, his 131 innings across 25 starts averaged 5 1\/3 innings per start. Even with the elite stuff that Gilbert possesses, this is below the standard expected of an ace. In contrast, in 2024, he went 208 innings pitched in 33 games, averaging 6 1\/3 innings. Similarly, in 2023, he pitched 190 innings in 32 games, averaging six innings per game. This is what Gilbert must return to. <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/02\/02\/seattle-mariners-logan-gilberts-pitch\/\" target=\"_self\">He has reintroduced his cutter<\/a>, which was used heavily after he faced a similar problem of a ballooned early pitch count on Opening Day of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>But if Gilbert can hit 200 innings pitched in 2026, that is the sign he has maintained his swing and miss profile while also being able to go six or seven innings into games regularly, justifying the huge contract his talent deserves.<\/p>\n<h2>Bryan Woo &#8211; Barrel%<\/h2>\n<h3>Season Target: 7%<\/h3>\n<p>Coming off a season in which <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/players\/bryan-woo\/30279\/stats\/pitching\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bryan Woo<\/a> finished fifth in Cy Young Voting in the American League. He was by far the Mariners&#8217; best pitcher in 2025 and has built a real foundation to become one of the best pitchers in the AL. Building on his fastball variations, his four-seamer had a run value of +21. Combined with his two-seamer, he threw fastballs nearly 75% of the time.<\/p>\n<p>Woo built his profile on efficiency, quick outs, and consistency. Working at least six innings in 25 consecutive starts, he proved how powerful his arsenal was. Following this breakout season, the expectation is to be in the conversation for the AL Cy Young Award come the end of the season. Despite his success, there is room for improvement, and he will need to tighten up some areas to compete with the likes of <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/skubata01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-03-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tarik Skubal<\/a> and <a  target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/crochga01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2026-03-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Garrett Crochet<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Is Bryan Woo a top 10 SP in MLB?\ud83d\udc40\ud83e\udd14<a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/USsDLC2eub\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/USsDLC2eub<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Big League Digest (@BigLeagueDigest) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BigLeagueDigest\/status\/2036503313827635423?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">March 24, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>With the amount of strikes he throws and his reliance on a singular pitch, he will want to bring down the quality of contact on his pitches. Bringing his barrel rate down from 9.1% into the 6.5\u20137.0% range would represent a meaningful step back toward top-tier contact suppression. That target aligns closely with league-average levels and sits within the typical range of Cy Young-caliber starters. Even a modest reduction in barrel rate would have a huge impact on run prevention, allowing his existing strengths to play up even further over a full season. If he can pair that adjustment with his current strike-throwing ability, it would position him to potentially surpass his All-Star season in 2026.<\/p>\n<h2>George Kirby &#8211; Zone%<\/h2>\n<h3>Season Target: 55%<\/h3>\n<div class=\"flex flex-col text-sm pb-25\">\n<section class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [&amp;:has([data-writing-block])&gt;*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" data-turn-id=\"request-69bb9531-1cec-83a4-adfc-648bd7e9a08d-23\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-70\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:var(--thread-content-margin-xs,calc(var(--spacing)*4))] @w-sm\/main:[--thread-content-margin:var(--thread-content-margin-sm,calc(var(--spacing)*6))] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-margin:var(--thread-content-margin-lg,calc(var(--spacing)*16))] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col gap-4 grow\">\n<div data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"0864d6a1-addc-4027-80bf-d305c4a93e29\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-3\" class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal outline-none keyboard-focused:focus-ring [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-1\" data-turn-start-message=\"true\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full wrap-break-word light markdown-new-styling\">\n<p data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"301\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Another high-profile former All-Star, <a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/players\/george-kirby\/25436\/stats\/pitching\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">George Kirby<\/a>, is looking to bounce back from a slightly down 2025 after a shoulder injury altered his profile. He was one of baseball\u2019s top command-oriented pitchers during his 2023 All-Star season. His walk rate of 2.5% led the league; he pounded the zone, throwing strikes consistently with great precision. His zone rate was at 57%, well above league average, and his first pitch strike percentage of 70% meant he was consistently ahead of counts and able to dictate at-bats.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"301\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">George Kirby, \ud83c\udfa8 + \ua4d8<\/p>\n<p>A nasty two-seamer leads to his sixth punchhout of the night, and he&#8217;s likely done after reaching 90 pitches through the 6th inning. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oVDmFF1C0h\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/oVDmFF1C0h<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DKramer_\/status\/2037732793665683552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">March 28, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p>Since his shoulder injury midway through 2025, he returned as a different pitcher. As a result of his injury, he had to lower his arm slot by 10 degrees to around 28 degrees. His ceiling, especially for swing and miss and pure stuff, actually seemed to go up as he gained considerable horizontal movement. The spin rate on his slider was significantly higher, and he gave one of the best performances of his career with a 13-strikeout game against the Los Angeles Angels. But with this came a loss in his command. His zone% was down to below 50%, and his walk rate went above 5% for the first time in his career.<\/p>\n<p>As we enter 2026, he says his arm slot feels great, and he is in a great position to have a strong year. If that is to be the case, he will have to get back to throwing strikes more consistently. Finding some middle ground would be ideal for Kirby. Getting back close to a Zone% of 55% will mean Kirby has elite command to pair with improved movement on his breaking balls.<\/p>\n<h2>Luis Castillo &#8211; Fastball RV<\/h2>\n<h3>Target: +10<\/h3>\n<p><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/players\/luis-castillo\/15689\/stats\/pitching\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Luis Castillo<\/a> has been the cornerstone of the Mariners&#8217; rotation since he was traded from Cincinnati in 2022. Last year, despite some difficult spells, he lived up to his nickname \u201cLa Piedra,\u201d or The Rock. Being able to show up every fifth day and deliver a consistent outing is of incredible value, and even as he gets to the later stages of his career, he will still be looking to prove this in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2022, batters have never averaged more than .200 across a season on his fastball. In 2022, it was one of the best pitches in the league, and while he hasn&#8217;t reached that ceiling since, it has always been a plus pitch. In both 2024 and 2025, it had a run value of +12 and +11, respectively. As a veteran arm projected toward the back of the rotation, his value lies in consistency, anchored by a fastball that has produced positive run value in consecutive seasons while making up over 40% of his usage.<\/p>\n<p>In what will likely be his last season in Seattle, Castillo will want to go out on a high note. Maintaining the effectiveness of his fastball over a full season will be key to providing reliable innings and stabilizing the rotation. Still a plus pitch even as his velo goes down, if he can maintain a run value of at least 10 on his fastball, he will have done so to be a consistent factor in helping the Mariners try to reach their goal of a World Series.<\/p>\n<h2>Bryce Miller &#8211; HR\/FB%<\/h2>\n<h3>Target: &gt;10%<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"203\" data-end=\"674\"><a  href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/players\/bryce-miller\/29837\/stats\/pitching\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bryce Miller<\/a> will begin the season on the injured list. Following his breakout in the second half of 2024, injuries and inconsistent performance heavily impacted his 2025 season. Outside of a strong postseason showing, Miller struggled throughout the year, allowing more hard contact and giving up damage at a much higher rate.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"676\" data-end=\"1188\">For Miller, the clearest path back to top-of-rotation form lies in limiting home run damage, as his HR\/FB rate jumped to 15.5% in 2025 after sitting below 11% in each of the previous two seasons. That increase reflects not just more mistakes, but more costly ones, with a higher percentage of balls in the air being driven for damage, and often out of the park. While his underlying pitch characteristics remained largely okay, increased hard-hit rates and average exit velocity indicate that when he missed, hitters consistently punished him.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1190\" data-end=\"1626\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Improving execution, particularly with fastball location, will be key to reducing those high-damage outcomes. If he can pair that adjustment with his existing pitch profile, it would position him to return to his 2024 level and reestablish himself as a key contributor to the Mariners\u2019 rotation in 2026.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1190\" data-end=\"1626\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">\n<p data-start=\"1190\" data-end=\"1626\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Main Photo Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n<p><!-- notionvc: 6d95fa65-17b1-4ae8-8083-ca26a8c52a96 --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Seattle Mariners&#8217; starting rotation has, for several years now, been one of the deepest in baseball. In a ballpark that suppresses offense, the Mariners front office has made a point of building one of the most talented pitching staffs in the league. If they stay healthy in 2026, the floor for this group is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5718,"featured_media":93285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,1071,35],"tags":[28894,28893,2632,2050,922],"class_list":["post-116929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mariners","category-mlb","category-news","tag-bryan-woo","tag-bryce-miller","tag-george-kirby","tag-logan-gilbert","tag-luis-castillo"],"modified_by":"Lewis Masella, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116929","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5718"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116929"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116929\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117050,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116929\/revisions\/117050"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}