{"id":116000,"date":"2026-03-20T13:59:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T17:59:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=116000"},"modified":"2026-03-20T13:59:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T17:59:33","slug":"matter-stat-mlb-statistical-predictions-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/03\/20\/matter-stat-mlb-statistical-predictions-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"As a Matter of Stat: Some MLB Predictions for 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re less than a week from Opening Day in Major League Baseball<\/span><\/a>. This is typically when you get a ton of predictions about divisional winners, awards, and stats. So, I will attempt to follow suit with some prognostications of my own based upon statistical analysis, recent trends, and middle-aged intuition.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Here are some statistical predictions for the 2026 MLB season. I wouldn\u2019t run out and make excessive wagers on all of these numbers just yet. This is simply a matter of stat.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a Matter of Stat: Some MLB Statistical Predictions for 2026<\/h2>\n

2026 MLB Home Run Kings<\/b><\/h3>\n

American League: Nick Kurtz (52)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Last season\u2019s <\/span>American League Rookie of the Year<\/span><\/a> was <\/span>A\u2019s<\/span><\/a> sensation, <\/span>Nick Kurtz<\/span><\/a>. In just 117 games, this lefty first baseman went for 36 homers and had a 1.002 OPS. If you project those numbers over 162 games, you have a 50-homer season for Kurtz. <\/span>Remember his four-homer game last year<\/span><\/a>? Then you factor in that his home ballpark is a minor-league stadium with a penchant for long balls, and that he now has a year of experience pitching in the Major Leagues. This points to Nick Kurtz leading the AL in home runs as a strong 2026 stat prediction.<\/span><\/p>\n

National League: Kyle Schwarber (48)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Kyle Schwarber<\/span><\/a> has led the National League in home runs <\/span>in two of the last four seasons<\/span><\/a>. All signs indicate him doing that again this season. Since joining the <\/span>Philadelphia Phillies<\/span><\/a> in 2022, <\/span>this clubhouse leader only trails Aaron Judge in homers<\/span><\/a>. He was the <\/span>NL MVP runner-up in 2025<\/span><\/a> and also had <\/span>a four-homer night<\/span><\/a>. In a hitter\u2019s park with an astute eye, Schwarber is aging like a French red. I don\u2019t see this stout lefty besting last year\u2019s total of 56 Schwar-bombs, but he has a great shot of topping the NL in home runs for a third time in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

2026 MLB Batting Champs<\/b><\/h3>\n

American League: Steven Kwan (.320)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Steven Kwan<\/span><\/a> has long been one of the best contact hitters in MLB baseball. However, this three-time Gold Glove left fielder for the <\/span>Cleveland Guardians<\/span><\/a> has never hit above .298 in a season. <\/span>Consistently, you\u2019ll find him in the top 10 for fewest strikeouts per AB<\/span><\/a>. This 28-year-old lefty bat has all the tools to hit well above .300. It feels like 2026 is finally the year for Steven Kwan to capture the American League batting crown.<\/span><\/p>\n

National League: Luis Arraez (.334)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Unlike the prediction for the AL\u2019s batting champ, <\/span>Luis Arraez<\/span><\/a> already has <\/span>three batting titles<\/span><\/a>. In fact, he is one of only two players in the modern era to win it in each league. It seems to me that this guy was severely disrespected and discounted by being forced to settle for a modest one-year deal with the <\/span>Giants<\/span><\/a>. That should be motivation enough for a fourth batting crown, but then, when you throw in a very spacious field in San Fran, it is a solid stat prediction that Luis Arraez is the National League\u2019s average leader in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

2026 MLB ERA Leaders<\/b><\/h3>\n

American League: Max Fried (2.35)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Max Fried<\/span><\/a> gets overshadowed a bit when discussing the best starting pitchers in MLB, but this lefty\u2019s career numbers show he is undeniably a top-10 starter. Last year, his first in the Bronx, he was 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA for the <\/span>Yankees<\/span><\/a>. That <\/span>fourth-place AL Cy Young performance<\/span><\/a> wasn\u2019t an aberration for Max. It was the fifth time in his career that he had a sub-3.00 ERA. Now, he has his footing set in the American League. Just read the back of his baseball card to see why it is a likely stat prediction for Max Fried to lead the AL in ERA in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

National League: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.42)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/span><\/a> got his mojo back last year. All you had to do was watch his <\/span>World Series MVP heroics<\/span><\/a> (as a starter and a reliever). This <\/span>Los Angeles Dodger<\/span><\/a> was a huge Japanese import the previous year but had a somewhat underwhelming 2024 season. In 2025, this owner of <\/span>an unfathomable pitch array<\/span><\/a> finished third in the <\/span>NL Cy Young race<\/span><\/a> and produced a 2.49 ERA in 30 starts. Since Yamamoto is only 27, it is scary to think he is only scratching the surface. Don\u2019t be shocked to see Yoshinobu Yamamoto carry last year\u2019s success to a National League ERA title in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

2026 MLB Saves Leaders<\/b><\/h3>\n

American League: Aroldis Chapman (41)<\/b><\/h3>\n

Aroldis Chapman<\/span><\/a> found the fountain of middle age last year with the <\/span>Boston Red Sox<\/span><\/a>. After scuffling around the league the previous few years, in his age-37 season, this Cuban fireballer put up a career-best 3.5 WAR with 32 saves. With<\/span> no dip in velocity<\/span><\/a> and a relatively clean injury history, there is no reason Chapman can\u2019t replicate those numbers in 2026 with the Sox. In fact, when the season is over, there is a very realistic stat prediction that\u00a0Aroldis Chapman is leading the American League in saves.<\/span><\/p>\n

National League: Mason Miller (44)<\/b><\/h3>\n

This is finally the year for <\/span>Mason Miller<\/span><\/a> to put up a huge number in the saves department. The owner of the <\/span>most blazing fastball in MLB<\/span><\/a> is entering his first full season with the <\/span>San Diego Padres<\/span><\/a>. Since he is on a contending team with big aspirations, you can expect more save opportunities and a higher usage rate for Miller in 2026. Not to mention, Mason\u2019s numbers once he was sent to San Diego at last season\u2019s trade deadline were double-take worthy: a .77 ERA, a .729 WHIP, and 17.4 SO9. All of those projects go to Mason Miller, topping the National League in saves this season.<\/span><\/p>\n

Main Photo Credits: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re less than a week from Opening Day in Major League Baseball. This is typically when you get a ton of predictions about divisional winners, awards, and stats. So, I will attempt to follow suit with some prognostications of my own based upon statistical analysis, recent trends, and middle-aged intuition.\u00a0 Here are some statistical predictions […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5735,"featured_media":116005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1071],"tags":[516,3384,6502,5613],"class_list":["post-116000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-kyle-schwarber","tag-luis-arraez","tag-nick-kurtz","tag-steven-kwan"],"modified_by":"Evan Mazza, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5735"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116000"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116008,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116000\/revisions\/116008"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}