{"id":115295,"date":"2026-03-08T17:14:57","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T21:14:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=115295"},"modified":"2026-03-08T17:14:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T21:14:57","slug":"projections-force-san-diego-into-familiar-role-of-underdog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2026\/03\/08\/projections-force-san-diego-into-familiar-role-of-underdog\/","title":{"rendered":"Projections Force San Diego Into Familiar Role of Underdog"},"content":{"rendered":"

The San Diego Padres have enjoyed arguably the greatest stretch of success in franchise history across the better part of the last decade. They have made the postseason four times in the last six seasons, coming off consecutive 90-plus win seasons.<\/span><\/p>\n

But there seem to be many who feel that the Friars’ streak is coming to an end. FanGraphs ranks the Padres<\/a> at fourth in the NL West with only a 22.3% chance of making the playoffs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even more despair-inducing, San Diego only has a 1.3% chance of winning the division. After years of chasing after the Los Angeles Dodgers, many believe the Padres will simply fall by the wayside of mediocrity. After so much success, why is that?<\/span><\/p>\n

Aging Stars on Massive Contracts<\/h2>\n

There are two players whose fans seem worried about the most: Manny Machado<\/a> and Xander Bogaerts<\/a>. The latter has been viewed much more contentiously in his Padres tenure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s largely believed by the Friar Faithful that Bogaerts has been a waste of a contract. And while the length of the contract was somewhat insane, the player himself was a good pickup by general manager A.J. Preller.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bogaerts is entering year four of the 11-year, $280 million contract. In his time with San Diego, he has hit better than fans have thought, finishing three seasons with a .271\/.328\/.404 slash line.<\/span><\/p>\n

Machado is the more surprising one here. Across 14 seasons in MLB, he has been one of the most consistent players around. He always bats above league average, and he always hits 20-30 home runs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The prevailing belief is that he\u2019s just getting older. Machado turns 34 later this year, and players almost always get worse as they age. Most do not continue to produce at the level they did, in spite of some exceptions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

His defense has already deteriorated a little bit, leading San Diego in errors last season, but he\u2019s still fantastic at third base. Who else would you want manning the hot corner than El Ministro de la Defensa?<\/span><\/p>\n

Young Superstars Anchor the Offense<\/h2>\n

Shockingly, this is viewed as the Padres’ primary strength. The likes of Fernando Tatis Jr.<\/a> and Jackson Merrill<\/a> are obviously massive threats in the lineup. But, to the eyes of many, it seems like there isn\u2019t much after that.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/smartframe-embed><\/p><\/p>\n

To be honest, it\u2019s a little odd to hear that about this Padres lineup. Of course, there were departures (there always are). Luis Arr\u00e1ez<\/a> and Ryan O\u2019Hearn<\/a> no longer platoon first base and DH after leaving in free agency. But, let\u2019s be honest, O\u2019Hearn was not that<\/em> good as a Padre.<\/span><\/p>\n

He was a great pickup amidst his first All-Star season, but once he got here, he had a .737 OPS in 50 games. Granted, Arr\u00e1ez is a tough bat to lose. Whoever wants to say that he had a bad year in 2025 has to contend with the fact that he still batted .292 and doubled his home run total from the previous year.<\/span><\/p>\n

That being said, this is one of the most complete Padres lineups fans have gotten to see in a long, <\/span>long<\/span><\/i> time. The additions of Miguel Andujar<\/a>, Nick Castellanos<\/a>, Ty France<\/a>, and Sung-Mun Song<\/a> have raised hopes of bolstering an offense that struggled to win by the long ball last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

New hitting coach Steven Souza Jr.<\/a> has emphasized a philosophy that still prioritizes contact while looking for pitches to do damage on. These players will add to that, not subtract.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Pitching Staff Is Wobbly at Best<\/h2>\n

This is arguably the only claim on this list worth listening to. And it\u2019s an obvious one. It\u2019s one that fans have been worried about the entire offseason. Can the pitching staff compete?<\/span><\/p>\n

Re-signing<\/a> Michael King<\/a> to a 3-year, $75 million deal certainly helps. Getting Joe Musgrove<\/a> back from injury helps. But can King replicate his breakout season in 2024? Can Nick Pivetta<\/a> do the same after his stellar 2025?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/smartframe-embed><\/p><\/p>\n

Thankfully, Preller has adjusted by making a swath of low-risk, high-reward pickups, signing Walker Buehler<\/a>, Griffin Canning<\/a>, Marco Gonzales<\/a>, Germ\u00e1n M\u00e1rquez<\/a>, and Triston McKenzie<\/a>. Only one of those (Canning) will be unavailable on Opening Day due to a left Achilles tear.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The rest will serve as great depth pieces. All of which are far better than anything San Diego had last season. The question of whether the rotation can dominate is warranted, but the bullpen remains a powerful and unstoppable force in the Padres organization.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As long as the starters can give quality starts, the bullpen will keep them in the game, and the offense will mash its way to a win.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n


Main Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The San Diego Padres have enjoyed arguably the greatest stretch of success in franchise history across the better part of the last decade. They have made the postseason four times in the last six seasons, coming off consecutive 90-plus win seasons. But there seem to be many who feel that the Friars’ streak is coming […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5784,"featured_media":99572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1071,35,30],"tags":[1625,3867,1303,28952,1860,3384,43,3982,3111,1490,1094,3008,28329,3126,29293,3452,5099,2265,292],"class_list":["post-115295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","category-news","category-padres","tag-fernando-tatis-jr","tag-german-marquez","tag-griffin-canning","tag-jackson-merrill","tag-joe-musgrove","tag-luis-arraez","tag-manny-machado","tag-marco-gonzales","tag-michael-king","tag-miguel-andujar","tag-nick-castellanos","tag-nick-pivetta","tag-ryan-ohearn","tag-steven-souza","tag-sung-mun-song","tag-triston-mckenzie","tag-ty-france","tag-walker-buehler","tag-xander-bogaerts"],"modified_by":"Augustus Oswald, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5784"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115295"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115295\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115306,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115295\/revisions\/115306"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}